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Mets vs. Nationals,
8-26-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#901 New York
Mets
#902 Washington
Nationals

Saturday, August 26, 2017 at 4:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

New York Mets
R. GSELLMAN

56 - 71

5
W's
5
L's
6.24
ERA
1.58
WHIP

Washington Nationals
G. GONZALEZ

76 - 50

12
W's
5
L's
2.39
ERA
1.11
WHIP

Betting Trends

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New York Mets (55-71; 69-46-11 O/U) vs. Washington Nationals (76-49; 57-62-6 O/U)

MLB: Saturday, August 26, 2017 at 4:05pm EST

Line: Washington -215/New York +192

Total: 8.5

The Washington Nationals will host the New York Mets as the division rivals continue a three game series Saturday afternoon from Nationals Park. The Mets will give the nod to 24-year old right-hander Robert Gsellman, and the Nationals will turn to 31-year old left-hander Gio Gonzalez. The Nationals own a 9-3 lead in the season series.

Gsellman Shuts Down D-backs in One of Best Starts of Season

Robert Gsellman will get the nod for the 20th time of the season, aiming for his second straight Quality Start. Gsellman was very sharp in his previous start, limiting the strong Diamondbacks lineup to only one run in 6.1 innings, and finished with the no decision. The young right-hander has pitched well in two straight starts however he owns a weak 5.65 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP to go with a 5-5 record in 87.2 innings of work. He faced the Nationals back in June and was lit up, serving up seven runs in five innings, and has now allowed eight runs with a 1-1 record in 16.2 career innings against Washington. Anthony Rendon is 3 for 7 with two RBI’s against Gsellman, while Bryce Harper is 2 for 4, and Ryan Zimmerman is 4 for 7. Yoenis Cespedes has collected 10 hits along with four RBI’s over his last five games. The 31-year old right fielder is having his best month of the season and is currently hitting .292 with 17 home runs and 42 RBI’s. Cespedes has collected six hits in 16 at bats against the Nationals this season.

The Mets are currently averaging 4.61 runs per game, ranking them 18th overall, and are hitting .247 as a team. The New York pitching is carrying a poor 4.80 team ERA, placing them down at 26th in the Major Leagues.

Gonzalez Stifles Padres, Aims for Fifth Straight Win

Gio Gonzalez will take the mound for the 26th time of the season, eying yet another victory. Gonzalez was outstanding once again in his previous start, allowing only one run (zero earned) in 6.2 innings to the Padres, and was awarded the win to boost his record to 12-5. The veteran left-hander has been dominant over his last five starts, and now features a 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP in 162 innings logged. He has limited the Mets to three runs in 13 innings this season, and he now sits at 13-5 with a stifling 2.94 ERA in 22 career starts against the Mets. Anthony Rendon has dominated the Mets pitching this season, going 15 for 41 with four home runs and 15 RBI’s. The 27-year old third baseman has slowed down this month, however overall he is having a stellar season, currently hitting .301 with 22 home runs and 78 RBI’s. Rendon has driven in nine runs this month.

The Nationals potent lineup is averaging 5.26 runs per game, good for second in the Majors, and feature a .269 team batting average. The Washington pitching is also looking good, boasting a 3.91 team ERA, ranking them sixth overall.

Trends:

The New York Mets are:

  • 0-5 in Gsellman’s last 5 starts.
  • 0-9 in their last 9 games against a left-handed starter.
  • 4-15 in their last 19 games against a starter with a WHIP below 1.15.

The Washington Nationals are:

  • 5-1 in Gonzalez’s last 6 starts against the Mets.
  • 5-0 in Gonzalez’s last 5 starts.
  • 4-1 in their last 5 games against a team with a losing record.

I am taking the Nationals on the run line in this contest. Gonzalez has silenced the Mets this season, allowing three runs in 13 innings, and he features a 2.94 career ERA against them. In addition, Gonzalez has been nearly flawless, allowing only one earned run over his last four starts (27.2 innings), so I can’t see the Mets doing much at the plate. Also, Gsellman surrendered seven runs on 11 hits in his meeting against the Nationals this season, so I expect Washington to take this one easily.

Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5

Gsellman has been awful on the road this season and the Nationals have had success against him. I expect the Nationals to put some crooked numbers against Gsellman who owns a 7.85 ERA on the road, and the over is 7-1-1 in Gsellman’s last nine starts against the NL East.  The Mets like will have a tough time scoring runs however the over is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings this season, and I expect the Nationals bats to play a key role in allowing the over to hit.

Pick: Over

4

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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