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Orioles vs. Red Sox,
8-27-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#971 Baltimore
Orioles
#972 Boston
Red Sox

Sunday, August 27, 2017 at 1:35pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Baltimore Orioles
W. MILEY

64 - 65

7
W's
10
L's
5.11
ERA
1.68
WHIP

Boston Red Sox
D. FISTER

73 - 56

3
W's
4
L's
5.24
ERA
1.4
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Baltimore Orioles (63-65 SU, 64-64 RL, 64-61-3 O/U) vs. Boston Red Sox (73-55 SU, 67-61 RL, 57-65-6 O/U)

MLB: Sunday, August 27, 2017, Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts, 1:35 pm ET

Lines: Boston -133, Baltimore +123; Over/Under: 10.5

It’s the conclusion of a battle between a pair of AL East rivals up in Beantown. The Baltimore Orioles play the final game of a three game weekend series with the Boston Red Sox Sunday afternoon. Baltimore cruised to an easy 16-3 win in the opening game of the series Friday night. The pitching matchup for the middle game of the series Saturday afternoon saw Kevin Gausman pitch for the Orioles against Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez. First pitch in that contest was set for 4:05 pm ET.

Baltimore Orioles Trying to Gain Ground in Wild Card Race

Baltimore rolled over Boston in the opening game of the series thanks to an offensive blitz. The Orioles entered Saturday 2.5 games behind the Twins in the race for the second AL wild card spot. Every Baltimore starter had at least one hit as the team totaled 20 in the contest: Jonathan Schoop (three runs, RBI) led the team with four while Manny Machado (two runs, RBI) and Trey Mancini (run, four RBI) each had three hits. Mark Trumbo (his 20th) and Chris Davis (his 21st) each homered in the victory. The offensive outburst made things easy for Jeremy Hellickson (2-2), who threw seven innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on four hits with no walks and two strikeouts.

Wade Miley takes the ball for his 27h start of the year for the Orioles. He is 7-10 with a 5.11 ERA, a 1.682 WHIP plus a league high 76 walks against 118 strikeouts in 132 innings of work. Miley picked up the win in his last start, which came Monday at home against the A’s. He tossed six innings, allowing two runs on five hits with four walks and six strikeouts in an eventual 7-3 Orioles victory. He is 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, 10 walks and 17 strikeouts over 17.2 innings in his last three starts. Miley faces the Mariners for the third time in his career in this contest: he is 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA and a 1.80 WHIP over 8.1 innings of work. He is 7-6 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.211 WHIP over 93.1 innings in his 15 career starts at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox Hope to Regroup

Boston dropped their second straight and likely has a worn-out bullpen as they allowed 29 runs in those two contests. The Red Sox entered Saturday four games ahead of the Yankees in the AL East. Boston was done in by poor pitching (they allowed 20 hits) and lousy fielding as they committed five errors. Chris Young led the Red Sox with two hits while Xander Bogaerts (two RBI) hit his eighth homer of the season. Sandy Leon drove in the other Boston run. Rick Porcello (8-15) took the loss as he was tagged for 11 runs (four earned) on nine hits with one walk and four strikeouts over 4.2 innings.

Doug Fister, who was picked up back in June with the rash of injuries affecting the Red Sox’s pitching staff, takes the ball for his 12th appearance and ninth start of the year. He is 3-6 with a 5.56 ERA, a 1.649 WHIP, 23 walks and 38 strikeouts over 43.2 innings of work. Fister had his best start of the season as he picked up the win in his last outing, which was a road start against the Indians last Tuesday. He went the distance, allowing one run on one hit with two walks and six strikeouts as Boston took a 9-1 win. Fister is 2-1 with a 4.12 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, six walks and 18 strikeouts over 19.2 innings in his last three starts. He makes his 10th career appearance and ninth start against the Orioles here: he is 4-2 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.272 WHIP over 50.1 innings of work. Fister is 4-6 with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.608 WHIP over 55.1 innings in 10 appearances, nine starts, at Fenway Park in his career.

Trends:

Baltimore

  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game
  • Orioles are 1-6 in their last 7 games following a win
  • Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600

Boston

  • Red Sox are 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
  • Red Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game
  • Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 home games

Baltimore battered the Red Sox in the opener but they can hardly expect the Red Sox to have nearly as many errors as hits again. Miley has to cut down on the free passes as he leads the American League in walks. Fister has struggled most of the season but turned in a brilliant outing in stifling the Indians in his last outing. If he can shut down a good Cleveland team, he can do it to this Orioles squad. Look for the Red Sox to come up with a victory in this contest.

Pick: Boston Red Sox -133

Baltimore is battling to stay in the wild card race and if they hope to stay in the wild card race, the lineup is going to have to carry the day. The starting pitching for the Orioles has been mediocre at best as only Gausman and Dylan Bundy can be reliably counted on to put forth a decent effort. Boston is dealing with injuries to David Price, Dustin Pedroia and Jackie Bradley Jr. while Drew Pomeranz is banged up a bit as well. The Red Sox at least have a cushion to work with but they have to put some victories on the board to avoid sliding down the standings.

The under is 7-1 in the Orioles’ last 8 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-1 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record, 6-1 in their last 7 games following a win and 8-2 in their last 10 road games against a right-handed starter. Boston has seen the under go 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 20-9-1 in their last 30 home games. Look for this one to stay just under the total.

Under 10.5

4

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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