Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#3965 Baltimore Orioles vs.
#3966 New York Yankees
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at 7:07pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala

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A pair of AL East teams close out an early week series on the diamond in the Bronx looking to pick up a victory. The Baltimore Orioles are on the road as they finish off a three-game series with the New York Yankees Wednesday night. In the opening game of the series Monday night, it was the Orioles earning a 7-1 victory to ensure a shot at a series win regardless of Tuesday’s result. The Yankees had to shuffle their rotation after Gerrit Cole tested positive for COVID-19, forcing him out of Tuesday’s start. Will the Bronx Bombers regroup and gain ground in the playoff picture? This article was published prior to the conclusion of the middle game of the series from Yankee Stadium Tuesday night.

Baltimore Orioles Looking for Road Series Victory

Baltimore used the power game to take the opening game of this series and earn their seventh win in their last 10 games Monday night. The Orioles entered Tuesday last in the AL East, 25 games behind the Rays for the top spot in the division. In the AL wild-card picture, the team trailed the A’s by 21 games for the second wild-card spot. On Monday night, Baltimore got three hits from Ryan Mountcastle (two runs, RBI) while Cedric Mullins (run, RBI) and Anthony Santander (run) each added a pair. Mountcastle (his 18th), Mullins (his 18th), Austin Hays (his 11th) and Ramon Urias (his fifth) each homered in the victory. Jorge Lopez (3-12) was solid as he earned the win on the mound after throwing six innings. He allowed one run on one hit with five walks and four strikeouts before departing.

Matt Harvey is on the mound for the Orioles as he logs his 22nd start of the season in this contest looking to maintain his recent momentum. He comes in 6-10 with a 6.20 ERA, a 1.537 WHIP, 27 walks and 72 strikeouts over 94.1 innings of work on the year. Harvey earned the win in his last start, which came Friday on the road against the Tigers. He threw 6.1 scoreless frames, allowing six hits with no walks and five strikeouts in a 4-3 Orioles victory. Pitching on the road this season, Harvey is 4-4 with a 5.77 ERA, a 1.509 WHIP, 15 walks and 39 strikeouts over 53 innings in 11 starts. Harvey makes his sixth career start against the Yankees in this contest. He comes in 2-0 with a 1.60 ERA, a 0.772 WHIP, eight walks and 31 strikeouts over 33.2 innings of work. Harvey earned the win in his lone career start at Yankee Stadium, which came with the Mets on April 25, 2015. He threw 8.2 innings, allowing two runs on five hits with two walks and seven strikeouts in an 8-2 Mets victory.

Yankees Trying to Close Gap in AL Playoff Picture

New York had won three straight and five of six before getting waxed in the opening game of this set by the last-place Orioles. The Yankees entered Tuesday third in the AL East, seven games behind the Rays for the top spot. In the wild card picture, the team stood three games behind the A’s for the second wild-card spot. On Tuesday, New York finished with only three hits with no player having more than one. Gleyber Torres scored the lone Yankees run as he was plated on a foul out by Anthony Rizzo in the fifth inning. Andrew Heaney (6-8) lost in his Yankees debut after being acquired at the deadline from the Angels. He threw four innings, allowing four runs on six hits with no walks and four strikeouts while giving up four solo homers.

Jameson Taillon is on the mound for the Yankees as he makes his 21st start of the season in this contest. He is 7-4 with a 4.11 ERA, a 1.242 WHIP, 31 walks and 98 strikeouts over 100.2 innings of work this season. Taillon earned the win in his last start, which came against the Marlins on the road Friday. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing no runs on five hits with two walks and five strikeouts in a 3-1 Yankees victory. Pitching at home this season, Taillon has been solid, going 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.121 WHIP, 17 walks and 55 strikeouts over 58 innings in 11 starts. Taillon didn’t factor in the decision in his lone career start against the Orioles, which came at home April 7. He threw 4.2 innings, allowing two runs on three hits with no walks and seven strikeouts in a game the Yankees eventually dropped 4-3 in 11 innings. Taillon is 4-1 with a 3.26 ERA, a 1.121 WHIP, 17 walks and 55 strikeouts over 58 innings in 11 career starts at Yankee Stadium.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Both pitchers have been solid of late leading into this contest. Harvey has gone 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA, a 0.60 WHIP, one walk and 11 strikeouts over 18.1 innings in three starts since the All-Star break. On the flip side, Taillon is 3-0 with a 0.50 ERA, a 1.111 WHIP, seven walks and 12 strikeouts over 18 innings in his three starts since the All-Star Game. For that matter, Taillon is 6-0 with a 2.11 ERA with 13 walks and 35 strikeouts over 42.2 innings in seven starts since June 24 as he’s really turned things around. New York has to beat the teams that they are better than in the standings in order to make a move in the playoff picture and this is a prime example. Harvey is due to regress a bit and the Yankees’ lengthened lineup delivers enough offense to scratch out a victory here.

Prediction: New York Yankees -1.5 (-120)

Full-Game Total Pick

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Baltimore is 29th in the majors by allowing 5.43 runs per contest but their numbers have been better on the road. The Orioles are 18th on the road by allowing 4.82 runs a night in those games. Harvey has been better on the road than at home this season as well. His last five starts have seen an average of 7.8 runs per game with the under hitting in four of those contests. Taillon has been on a roll of late, shutting down opposing teams with six straight wins under his belt. His last three starts have seen an average of seven runs per game with the under going 2-0-1 in those games. New York is just 25th in runs per game with 4.22 a night. This contest looks like it could be another low-scoring affair so look for the under to come in here.

Prediction: Under 9.5
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Written By Chris Kubala , "Chris Kubala"

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