Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#3955 New York Mets vs.
#3956 Miami Marlins
Wednesday, August 4, 2021 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Blake V.

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New York needs to stop its slide before its National League East lead evaporates completely. The Mets have lost four of their last five games, including a 6-3 loss in Monday’s series-opener in Miami. The Marlins snapped a four-game losing streak with that win. They will play the third game of their four-game series on Wednesday night—this story was published prior to Tuesday night’s game.

Mets NL East lead continues to slip

New York has been in control of the NL East for several months, but things are beginning to take a turn. The Mets have now lost four of their last five games and have not won consecutive games since July 23. They dropped two out of three against Cincinnati over the weekend. Top starting pitcher Jacob deGrom is currently on the 10-day injured list and is not expected to be back until September. Shortstop Francisco Lindor is also out for six weeks. The Mets are just 2.5 games ahead of Philadelphia heading into Tuesday’s action. Their offense ranks No. 19 with a team batting average of .236.

First baseman Pete Alonso leads the team with 89 hits, including a team-high 24 home runs. Dominic Smith has 85 hits and is batting .251. The Mets made a splash at the trade deadline when they added Chicago shortstop Javy Baez. They will be facing a Miami pitching staff that ranks fourth in the MLB with a team ERA of 3.52. Carlos Carrasco will make his second start of the season on Wednesday. He allowed one run across four innings in his season debut against Cincinnati last week. Carrasco was cleared to play by the medical staff after missing the first half of the season with a hamstring injury.

Marlins needing big run

Miami is in the midst of a disappointing season that appears to be pushing it out of the playoff picture. The Marlins have really struggled since the All-Star break, only winning consecutive games twice during that span. They were swept by the Yankees over the weekend, but they were able to bounce back with a 6-3 win in Monday’s series-opener. Miami is 10.5 games back of New York in the NL East standings. With neither Wild Card spot being a realistic opportunity, the Marlins need to go on a big run. Their offense ranks No. 21 with a team batting average of .234.

First baseman Jesus Aguilar leads the team with 93 hits, including 18 home runs. He has driven in a team-best 75 runs. Shortstop Miguel Rojas has 85 hits. The Marlins shipped away left fielder Adam Duvall at the trade deadline—he had been the best power hitter on the team. They are going to face a New York pitching staff that is ninth in the MLB with a team ERA of 3.66. Right-hander Zach Thompson will start for Miami on Wednesday. He allowed one run across 5.2 innings of work in his last outing. Thompson has been fantastic during his rookie campaign, entering this start with a 2.33 ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I think we are starting to learn just how important deGrom is to this New York team. The Mets have been trending in the wrong direction ever since they lost his consistent dominance in the rotation. Baez is a solid replacement for Lindor, but he is still working through the adjustment that comes with changing teams mid-season. Miami is only slightly worse at the plate, so the value is on the Marlins in this game. Thompson has been an outstanding starting arm for his club this year. Carrasco is just getting the wheels turning this season and is likely going to be on a pitch count.

Prediction: Miami +129

Full-Game Total Pick

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These teams are rarely going to play high-scoring games against each other. They have both struggled to consistently produce runs, but their pitching has been excellent. Thompson has gone under the total in seven of his last eight starts. He is shutting down opposing teams and has not received much run support. The Mets have gone under at a 6-1-1 clip in their last eight tries during game three of a series. Carrasco is a veteran who is not going to give up a crooked number. Both bullpens are solid, so this game should never get out of hand.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Blake Von Hagen , "Blake V."

Blake is a lifelong sports fan and hoops junkie. Prior to joining our team at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt, Blake worked for several newspapers and websites. He enjoys combining his beat writing expertise with the knack for finding the winning edge in a matchup. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.