Miami Marlins (52-58; 56-47-7 O/U) vs. Washington Nationals (66-44; 54-52-4 O/U)
MLB: Wednesday, August 9, 2017 at 7:05pm EST
Line: Washington -173/Miami +163
The first place Washington Nationals will battle the Miami Marlins as the NL East rivals continue a four game series Wednesday night from Nationals Park. The Marlins will hand the ball to 27-year old left-hander Adam Conley, and the Nationals will send 31-year old left-hander Gio Gonzalez to the mound. The season series is tied five games apiece.
Conley Eyes Third Win in Last Four Starts
Adam Conley will get the call for the 12th time of the year, aiming for win number five. Conley conceded four runs (three earned) in 5.1 innings to the Braves in his previous start, and took the loss. The young left-hander has pitched well for the most part, however, a few rough outings have inflated his ERA to 5.10 to go with a 1.37 WHIP in 54.2 innings pitched on the season. He has had a tough time in his four career starts against the Nationals, allowing 16 runs to go with a 1-2 record in 18 innings. Bryce Harper is 1 for 6 against Conley, while Anthony Rendon is 4 for 9, and Daniel Murphy is 4 for 6 with four RBI’s. Giancarlo Stanton is on another power surge, smashing four home runs along with seven RBI’s over his last five games. The 27-year old slugger is having a dominating season, hitting .277 and leads the Majors with 37 home runs to go with 80 RBI’s. Stanton has collected five RBI’s against the Nationals this season.
The Marlins are swinging the bats well and are now averaging 4.69 runs per game, ranking them 15th in the Major Leagues, and are hitting .264 as a team. The Miami pitching has been subpar, carrying a 4.59 team ERA, placing them 19th in the Majors.
Gonzalez Targets Third Win Over Marlins this Season
Gio Gonzalez will get the nod for the 23rd time of the season, aiming for win number ten. Gonzalez just faced the Marlins in his previous start on July 31st and was brilliant, hurling eight scoreless innings and recorded the victory. The veteran right-hander is having the best season of his career, boasting a 2.66 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP accompanied with a 9-5 record in 142.1 innings of work. He has stifled the Marlins in all three meetings this season and now features an 8-3 record with a minuscule 1.99 ERA in 14 career starts. Marcel Ozuna is 4 for 18 with four RBI’s against Gonzalez, while Giancarlo Stanton is 6 for 27, and Christian Yelich is 6 for 21. Daniel Murphy has been very productive against the Marlins this season, going 10 for 31 with five RBI’s. The career .300 hitter is having another excellent season, currently hitting .332 with 19 home runs and 76 RBI’s. Murphy has smashed two homers along with three RBI’s over his last four games.
The Nationals potent offense is currently averaging 5.46 runs per game, good for second in the Majors, and feature a .273 team batting average. The Washington pitching has been solid, sporting a 4.10 team ERA, ranking them 10th in the Major Leagues.
The Miami Marlins are:
- 15-37 in their last 52 games in Washington.
- 1-4 in their last 5 games against a left-handed starter.
- 3-9 in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.
The Washington Nationals are:
- 5-1 in Gonzalez’s last 6 home starts against the Marlins.
- 5-1 in their last 6 games in the third game of a series.
- 20-6 in Gonzalez’s last 26 Wednesday starts.
I am taking the Nationals on the run line to get more value however my stronger play is on the total. Gonzalez has completed dominated the Marlins, posting an 8-3 record with a stifling 1.99 ERA in 14 starts, so I can’t see Miami doing much offensively. Furthermore, Conley has struggled against the Nationals, surrendering 16 runs in 18 career innings, so I expect Washington to put some crooked numbers on the board and take this one easily.
Pick: Washington Nationals -1.5
Conley has pitched well in four straight starts and Gonzalez has silenced the Marlins all season. I am confident Conley can at least limit the damage as he has conceded a total of only seven runs over his last four starts, and the under is 5-1 in the Marlins last six games against a team with a winning record. Gonzalez has limited the Marlins to three runs in 21 innings this season, plus the under is 4-0 in his last four home starts against the Marlins.