Baltimore Orioles (71-71 SU, 68-74 RL, 70-68-4 O/U) vs Cleveland Indians (86-56 SU, 71-71 RL, 54-78-10 O/U)
When: 8:05 PM EDT, Sunday, September 10, 2017
Where: Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio
Lines: Cleveland -170/ Baltimore +160
Sunday night baseball and the American League East will rumble with the American League Central as the Baltimore Orioles take on the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio in the final game of their three-game series. Pitching Probables: Jeremy Hellickson (13-9, 4.12 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Orioles, while the Indians will be sending out Trevor Bauer (15-8, 4.39 ERA).
The Offense Is Struggling For The Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have been a solid offensive team for much of the year and they have hit a lot of homers but that offense has struggled of late as they have averaged just 2.75 rpg in their last eight games. This is not a good time for that to be happening as they are in a fight for a wildcard slot, and they just don’t have the pitching to lead them. That pitching has been among the worst in the league this year and has been even worse of late as they have a 5.40 ERA in their last 10 games. The Orioles are currently 3.5 games out of the 2nd wildcard slot in the American League, but they have won just three of their last nine games and have gone just 27-41 on the road for the year, scoring 4.65 rpg and allowed 5.25 rpg in those games. Toeing the slab for the Orioles in this one will be Jeremy Hellickson and he has gone 8-8 with a 5.26 ERA in 27 starts on the year, including 2-3 with a 6.87 ERA in seven starts as a member of the Orioles and 5-5 with a 4.60 ERA in 13 starts on the road. Hellickson has gone 9-12 with a 4.10 ERA in 38 games (31 starts) in his career in Sept/ Oct and he is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts against the Tribe in his career, including 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA in two starts here at Progressive Field.
Baltimore has been solid on offense this year so far as they come in ranked 10th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.82 rpg, while also ranking 4th in hitting at .266 and 2nd in homers with 216. On the mound they have been poor so far as they come in ranked 26th in the league in ERA at 4.84, while also ranking 26th in WHIP at 1.45.
Win Streak HIts 17 For The Indians
The Cleveland Indians had a very mediocre first half of the season and they started to play better after the break, but right now they are scorching hot as they have won their last 17 games in a row after taking game two of this series by a score of 4-2 on Saturday. The league record is 26, which was set by the 1916 New York Giants. The Indians have really been strong on the mound over that stretch as they have allowed just 1.76 rpg and have five shutouts in those 17 games. The offense has also been a big part of the run as they have averaged 6.94 rpg in those 17 games. The run has now given the Indians a shot at home field advantage in the American League playoffs as they trail the Astros by just one game for that distinction. This is now the best team in the AL I feel. Cleveland has gone 38-29 at home and have averaged 5.06 rpg and have allowed 3.61 rpg in those games. The Tribe will send out Trevor Bauer in this one and he has gone 15-8 with a 4.39 ERA in 28 games (27 starts) on the year, including 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA in his last three starts and 8-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 14 starts here at home. Bauer has gone 5-5 with a 5.73 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) in Sept/ Oct in his career and he is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against the Orioles. He has gone 24-18 with a 4.45 ERA in 66 games (62 starts) here at Progressive Field in his career.
Cleveland has been a solid offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 6th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.07 rpg, while also ranking 6th in hitting at .263 and 15th in homers with 186. On the mound they have been strong so far this year as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in ERA at 3.45, while also ranking 2nd in WHIP at 1.18.
- 11-27 in their last 38 road games vs. a right-handed starter
- 2-6 in their last eight after scoring two runs or less in their previous game
- 24-6 in their last 30 games vs. a right-handed starter
- 21-6 in their last 27 home games
Can anyone stop the Indians? Eventually, but right now they are rolling as they have won their last 17 games in a row. The odds are that they can’t keep winning forever, but they are taking on a struggling Baltimore offense and their own hot offense will be facing Jeremy Hellickson, who is just 2-3 with a 6.87 ERA for the Orioles this year. The Indians are just too strong right now and have way too many edges to feel that this is the game that they will lose, even though they have Trevor Bauer on the mound, who is 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in four career starts against the Orioles. Take the Tribe to keep it going and win their 18th game in a row.
Pick: Cleveland -170
The Orioles have been a solid offensive team for much of the year, while the Indians have averaged 6.94 rpg over their last 17 games. Looks like it could be a high-scoring game and the OU line would suggest that, but I just don’t see it here. Cleveland has played many low scoring games this year and that is due to their outstanding pitching that has allowed just 1.76 rpg in their last 17 games. They will be facing a Baltimore team that has averaged just 2.78 rpg in their last eight games. Even though Bauer’s home starts have averaged 10.14 rpg and Hellickson’s road starts have averaged 12.0- rpg, I still don’t see more than 8 runs being scored in this one, especially with the Under going 17-5-1 the last 23 games in this series.