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Rays vs. Red Sox,
9-10-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#969 Tampa Bay
Rays
#970 Boston
Red Sox

Sunday, September 10, 2017 at 1:35pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Tampa Bay Rays

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Boston Red Sox

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Tampa Bay Rays (70-72 SU, 68-74 RL, 71-68-3 O/U) vs Boston Red Sox (80-61 SU, 73-68 RL, 61-74-6 O/U)

When: 1:35 PM EDT, Sunday, September 10, 20177

Where: Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts

Lines: Boston -145/ Tampa Bay +135

Total: 9.5

Today on the MLB diamond, a couple of American League East foes will square off as the Tampa Bay Rays battle it out with the Tampa Bay Rays in game three of their three-game series from Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Pitching Probables: The Rays will be sending out Alex Cobb (10-9, 3.64 ERA) in this one and he will be opposed by Rick Porcello (9-16, 4.67 ERA).

Archer Has Another Rough Outing Against The Sox

Chris Archer has been one of the better starters for the Tampa Bay Rays over the last few years, but the one team he has had issues with has been the Boston Red Sox and those struggles continued on Friday night in a 9-3 Boston win. In that game, Archer allowed eight runs (six earned) on nine hits in just 3.0 innings of work to fall to 9-9 with a 4.00 ERA on the year. Against the Red Sox in his career, he has now gone 2-11 with a 5.06 ERA in 18 starts overall, including 1-3 with a 6.23 ERA in six starts here at Fenway. He just does not pitch well against this team. The Rays need to get back on track as they are now 4.5 games out of the 2nd wildcard slot in the American League. Tampa Bay has gone 34-38 on the road and have averaged 4.35 rpg and have allowed 4.67 rpg in those games. Toeing the rubber for the Rays in this one will be Alex Cobb and he has gone 10-9 with a 3.64 ERA in 26 starts on the year, including 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three starts and 4-5 with a 4.91 ERA in 14 starts on the road. Cobb has gone 9-5 with a 3.58 ERA in 21 career starts in Sept/ Oct and 14-11 with a 2.88 ERA in 34 career day starts, while against the Red Sox he has gone 5-3 with a 3.42 ERA in starts, including 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts here at Fenway Park.

Tampa Bay has been a bit below average on offense this year as they come in ranked 24th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.34 rpg, while also ranking 27th in hitting at .245 and 6th in homers with 202. On the mound they have been solid so far as they come in ranked 9th in the league in ERA at 4.07, while also ranking 7th in WHIP at 1.27.

Red Sox Continue March To the Playoffs

The Boston Red Sox haven’t clinched a playoff spot just year, but they are in a good position as they lead the Yankees by 4.5 games in their division. They took game one of this series by a score of 9-3 and have won three in a row to give them 80 wins on the year. The Red Sox should be in the postseason. They have an improving offense and three strong starters in their rotation, plus will be getting David Price back soon and they have one of the best pens in the league. One of their strong starters is Drew Pomeranz who has had a strong season so far as he is 15-5 with a 3.35 ERA on the year, after topping the Rays in game one of this series. He allowed just two ERs on two hits and two walks in 6.0 innings of work in the game. He, along with Chris Sale, Rick Porcello and Price will give them a very good starting staff as they make a run for a World Series berth. The Sox have gone 43-26 at home and have averaged 4.72 rpg and have allowed 4.22 rpg in those games. The Red Sox will send out Rick Porcello in this game and he has gone 9-16 with a 4.67 ERA in 29 starts on the year, including 1-2 with a 6.48 ERA in his last three starts and 6-10 with a 5.38 ERA in 17 starts here at home. Porcello has gone 18-16 with a 3.89 ERA in 47 games (45 starts) during Sept/Oct and 40-34 with a 4.38 ERA in 97 games (94 starts) in the daytime, plus he is 26-19 with a 4.32 ERA in 50 starts here at Fenway Park, while against the Rays in his career he has gone 11-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 21 starts.

The Red Sox have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 12th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.76 rpg, while also ranking 11th in hitting at .259 and 27th in homers with 147. On the mound they have been very strong so far as they come in ranked 4th in the league in ERA at 3.74, while also ranking 5th in WHIP at 1.25.

Trends

Tampa Bay is:

  • 16-38 in their last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600
  • 4-10 in their last 14 vs. the American League East

Boston is:

  • 25-9 in their last 34 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • 9-4 in Porcello’s last 13 home starts vs. a team with a losing record

The Rays are trying to stay in the race for a wildcard slot, while the Red Sox are trying to keep their solid lead over the Yankees in the American League East. Alex Cobb has been solid for the Rays this year and he has good numbers in this park, but he is 4-5 with a 4.91 ERA on the road this year and the Sox offense has been very solid of late. Rick Porcello has not had a great year and he is just 6-10 with a 5.38 ERA here at home, but still he is 11-7 with a 3.41 ERA in his career against the Rays and he does have the better bullpen behind him. Look for Boston to grab another big home win here.

Pick: Boston -145

The Rays will send out Alex Cobb and he has pitched well this year, while Rick Porcello has struggled. This should be an interesting game. Alex cobb has a 4.91 rpg on the road this year, but he also has a 3.34 ERA in six starts in this park in his career. Rick Porcello has a 5.38 ERA at home for the year and a 5.05 ERA in his last seven starts, but he has pitched well against the Rays in his career with a 3.41 ERA in 21 starts. Let’s also note that these teams play some low scoring games on Sundays as the Under has gone 6-0 in Tampa’s last six games on Sunday, while the Under is 8-1 in Boston’s last nine Sunday games. Take the Under in this one.

Pick: Under 9.5

Confidence: 3

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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