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Twins vs. Royals,
9-10-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#971 Minnesota
Twins
#972 Kansas City
Royals

Sunday, September 10, 2017 at 2:15pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Minnesota Twins

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Kansas City Royals

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Minnesota Twins (74-67 SU, 75-66 RL, 64-68-9 O/U) vs Kansas City Royals (69-71 SU, 66-74 RL, 67-67-6 O/U)

When: 2:15 PM EDT, Sunday, September 10, 2017

Where: Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri

Lines: Kansas City -123/ Minnesota +113

Total: 10

An important game between a couple of American League Central foes that are fighting for a playoffs spot will take place this afternoon as the Minnesota Twins grapple with the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri in game four of their four-game set. Pitching Probables: Bartolo Colon (6-11, 6.06 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Twins in this one and the Royals will counter with Jason Vargas (14-10, 4.23 ERA).

Twins Continue To Roll

The Minnesota Twins are looking to go from being the worst team in the league last year to the postseason this year. The Twins took the first two games of this series and they now have a two game lead over the Angels for the 2nd wildcard spot in the American League. Just an amazing turnaround from last year. They still have some work to do, but they are playing well at the moment, especially with an offense that has been very hot of late as they have averaged 7.00 rpg over their last 10 games. The pitching is still rather weak as they have a 4.40 ERA in those last 10 games. Minnesota has 11 games on the road and nine games at home remaining on the schedule. Their home games remaining are against San Diego, Toronto, and Detroit, while on the road they have to face these Royals, the Yankees, Detroit, and Cleveland. They will not be scared of their road slate as they are 39-30 away from home and have averaged 4.83 rpg and have allowed 4.48 rpg in those games. Bartolo Colon will toe the slab for the Twins in this one and he has gone 6-11 with a 6.06 ERA in 23 starts on the year overall, including 3-6 with a 5.60 ERA in 13 starts on the road and 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA in 10 starts as a member of the Twins, plus 1-1 with a 2.79 ERA in his last three starts. 39-23 with a 3.73 ERA in 82 games (78 starts) in Sept/ Oct and 84-48 with a 3.92 ERA in 173 games 167 starts) in the daytime, while against the Royals he has gone 15-10 with a 4.78 ERA in 30 games (29 starts), including 6-7 with a 5.06 ERA in 17 games (16 starts) here at Kauffman Stadium.

The Twins have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 8th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.96 rpg, while also ranking 14th in hitting at .258 and 16th in homers with 174. On the mound they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 20th in the league in ERA at 4.64, while also ranking 17th in WHIP at 1.38.

Kansas City Is Starting To Fade

The Kansas City Royals have been in the race for a playoff spot for much of the year, but they are starting to fade as they are now 4.5 games out of the 2nd wildcard slot after losing the first two games of this series. Kansas City is now just 5-10 in their last 15 games as they may be out of gas. This is the team they need to beat as the Twins are currently in the 2nd slot in the American League wildcard race. The Royals have struggled on the mound of late and that has been their downfall right now. After allowing eight runs in game two of this series, they have now allowed 7.75 rpg in their last 12 games. That just won’t get it down. If the pitching doesn’t come around soon, then they have no shot at getting back in the race, The Royals have gone 36-34 at home and have averaged 4.21 rpg and have allowed 4.69 rpg in those games. The Royals will be sending out Jason Vargas in this one and he has gone 14-10 with a 4.23 ERA in 27 starts on the year, including 0-3 with an 11.08 ERA in his last three starts and 7-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 14 starts here at home. Vargas has gone 6-18 with a 4.56 ERA in 44 games (37 starts) during Sept/ Oct and he 19-26 with a 3.95 ERA in 70 games (65 starts) in the daytime, plus he is 17-12 with a 4.22 ERA in 39 career starts here at Kauffman Stadium, while against the Twins he has gone 7-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 18 games (17 starts).  

Kansas City has been a poor offensive team overall this year as they come in ranked 23rd in the league in scoring, putting up 4.36 rpg, while also ranking 12th in hitting at .258 and 17th in homers with 171. On the mound they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 22nd in the league in ERA at 4.65, while also ranking 19th in WHIP at 1.39.

Trends

Minnesota is:

  • 10-4 in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
  • 4-1 in Colon’s last five starts with 4 days of rest

Kansas City is:

  • 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30
  • 1-5 in their last six home games vs. a right-handed starter

The Twins are playing well and have a great shot at the postseason after having the worst record in the league last year, while the Royals are headed the other way. Jason Vargas has been solid for the Royals, for the most part, this year, but he has really struggled of late as he is 1-6 with an 8.64 ERA in his last seven starts and that is not good news as he is about to face a Minnesota offense that has averaged 7.00 rpg in their last 10 games. The Twins will send out the ageless Bartolo Colon and he has been hot of late as he is 4-2 with a 3.30 ERA in his last seven starts. Minnesota has all the edges in this game and that should translate into another big road win for them.

Pick: Minnesota +113

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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