Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#955 Arizona Diamondbacks 8 vs.
#956 New York Mets -115
Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Arizona Diamondbacks will travel on the road to Citi Field on Wednesday night for the third game of their National League clash versus the New York Mets.

Both of these teams are on the outside looking in at the playoff picture in the National League. The Diamondbacks have battled their way through injuries and trades to hang around in the NL Wild Card race. They enter 2.5-games back of the Chicago Cubs for the final postseason spot with just under three weeks remaining in the regular season. Mired in more controversy, the Mets have slid 4.5-games back in the postseason race. After winning the series opener, can New York take control of the series with a win at home on Wednesday night?

Ray dealing with blister heading into Wednesday’s start

When 25-year-old second baseman Ketel Marte eclipsed his career-high in home runs during the month of June, people dubbed him a breakout candidate. A few short months later, Marte’s continued production has launched him into the conversation for NL MVP. The DBacks’ All-Star is batting .328 with 32 home runs, 91 RBIs, and a .982 OPS so far this season. His 6.3 offensive WAR is already the third-best single-season mark in DBacks’ history and Marte has been at the forefront of the DBacks’ recent surge up the standings. Despite losing two in a row, Arizona comes into play on Tuesday having won 11 of their last 14 games. 

Lefty Robbie Ray is scheduled to toe the rubber for the DBacks’ in Game 3 on Wednesday for his 30th start of the season. The 27-year-old left-hander has been dealing with a blister on his middle finger, but he reported having no issues with it after playing catch on Sunday. The blister may have been limiting him in his recent starts though, as he’s thrown 92 pitches or less in five of his last six outings.

With that being said, Ray has been the DBacks’ most consistent pitcher during the second half. In 10 starts since the All-Star Break, Ray is 6-1 with a 4.18 ERA and he’s continued to strike out batters at a torrid rate. He’s fanned a whopping 31.1 percent of the batters he’s faced in 2019, while limiting them to a slim .226 batting average and cutting his walk-rate down to 11.0 percent. The DBacks’ left-hander comes in with a 12-7 overall record to go along with a 4.03 ERA in 29 starts.

Alonso keeping Mets alive in postseason race

Strong pitching and some clutch hitting from surefire NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso have kept New York alive in the playoff race. Alonso slugged home runs No. 46 and 47 to back up ace Jacob deGrom and propel the Mets to victory in the series opener. With another multi-homer game, Alonso not only took over sole possession of the MLB lead, but he put himself on pace to break Aaron Judge’s rookie home run record of 52. If he continues to hit dingers at his current rate, he’ll launch six more the rest of the way. 

New York will turn to emerging left-hander Steven Matz on Wednesday for his 27th start of the season. Matz has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball during the second half, going 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA in 10 starts since the All-Star Break. The 28-year-old has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last six starts and 12 of his last 13 overall. He’s been especially tough to score on at home, going 6-1 with a 2.11 ERA in 14 games (12 starts) at Citi Field compared to 3-7 with a 6.08 ERA on the road this year. Last time out, the Mets’ lefty surrendered two runs on six hits in 5 ⅔ frames in a no-decision versus the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Matz has faced the DBacks once already this season. He gave up five runs in six innings of work versus the DBacks back on June 2 and he owns a 4.76 career ERA in four career starts against Arizona coming into this game.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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The Diamondbacks are 0-4 in their last four meetings on the road at Citi Field, including Monday night’s series opener.  Ray hasn’t gone more than five innings in any of his last four starts, but the DBacks’ have won three of those outings and eight of his last 10 overall. While this will be Ray’s first start of the season versus New York, he’s dominated them in their last three matchups, going 2-0 with a 1.06 ERA. Matz surrendered five runs in his only start versus the DBacks earlier this year and he owns a 4.76 career ERA  against Arizona heading into this matchup. Take the DBacks to come out on top on Wednesday versus the Mets at Citi Field.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks +106

Full-Game Total Pick

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These two teams have gone under the projected total in five of their last six meetings in New York and the under is 4-1-1 in their last six meetings.  Matz has allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last six starts and 12 of his last 13 overall. He’s been especially good at home this year and Ray has had success in his career against the Mets. Look for this game to go under the projected total in New York on Wednesday night. 

Prediction: Under 8
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.