Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#951 Atlanta Braves -130 vs.
#952 Philadelphia Phillies 10
Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino



#951 Atlanta
#952 Philadelphia


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The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Atlanta Braves in game three of a four-game set Wednesday night from Citizens Bank Park. The Braves will give the starting nod to 31-year old left-hander Dallas Keuchel, and the Phillies will respond with 25-year old right-hander Zach Eflin. The season series is tied 7-7.

Keuchel Shines Again, Eyes Fifth Straight Win

Dallas Keuchel will take the mound for the 16th time of the season, targeting his fifth consecutive victory. Keuchel was stellar once again last time out, firing six shutout innings against the Nationals, leading to another win to bolster his record to 7-5. The eighth-year left-hander has been one of the best pitchers in baseball as of late, and he has lowered his ERA to 3.47 to go with a 1.32 WHIP in 90.2 innings of action. Keuchel held the Phillies to just two runs in seven innings in the lone meeting this season, and he has now limited Philly to only three runs paired with a 1-1 record in 19.1 career innings. Cesar Hernandez is 0 for 3 against Keuchel, while Bryce Harper is 0 for 5, and JT Realmuto is 3 for 4.

Watch for Ozzie Albies as he is a stellar 18 for 51 with 13 RBI’s against the Phillies pitching this season. The 22-year old second baseman hasn’t been quite as dangerous in the second half, and he is currently hitting .289 with 21 home runs and 76 RBI’s on the season. Albies has tallied five RBI’s on the month.

The Atlanta Braves have won the NL East for the second straight season. They have won 10 out of their last 11 games to distance themselves from a very good Nationals team. The Braves offer a deep lineup and a solid pitching staff, although their bullpen can be a question mark at times.

The Braves productive lineup is currently averaging 5.37 runs per game, good for seventh in the big leagues. The Atlanta pitching staff features a sharp 4.23 team ERA, positioning them 10th overall. The Braves are a stellar 43-27 on the road entering Tuesday.

Eflin Back on Track with Three Solid Starts

Zach Eflin will be on the hill for the 29th time of the year in this one. Eflin resumed his solid work by holding the Mets to only two runs in five innings in his previous start, resulting in a no-decision in a 5-4 Phillies loss. The young right-hander has been sharp in each of his last three performances, and he enters this one with a 4.31 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP accompanied with an 8-11 record in 140 innings logged. Eflin was demolished in his two starts against Atlanta this season, squandering a whopping 17 runs (12 earned) in 5.2 innings, and he possesses a 2-2 record with a 5.02 ERA in five career meetings against the Braves. Freddie Freeman is 2 for 11 against Eflin, while Ozzie Albies is 2 for 6, and Ronald Acuna Jr. is 2 for 4.

Bryce Harper has belted more home runs against the Braves than any other team this year, clubbing five taters with nine RBI’s in 45 at-bats against the tough Atlanta pitching. The 26-year old right fielder doesn’t hit for average, but he does have 30 big flys and 101 RBI’s on the season.

The Phillies remain in contention in the Wildcard, standing only three games out, although they have to leap past three teams. Time is running out and they need to go on a huge winning streak which won’t be easy considering they play the Red Sox, Braves, and Indians in their next three series’.

Philly stands 14th in the big leagues with an average of 4.89 runs on the season. The Philadelphia pitching staff owns a 4.61 team ERA, placing them 18th in the big leagues. The Phillies feature a 41-32 record at Citizens Bank Park.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


I expect an easy Braves win. Normally I would give the Phillies a good look when at home, but the numbers do not add up in the Phillies favor. Braves’ starter Dallas Keuchel is unstoppable right now, holding his opponents to only a combined three runs in his last four starts spread across 25 innings.

Furthermore, the Braves have completely clobbered Zach Eflin this season. They scored seven runs in three innings against the right-hander in the first meeting, and 10 runs in 2.2 innings in the second meeting, so there is no way I can back Eflin. The Braves are a well-oiled machine right now, winning 10 out of their last 11 games.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Full-Game Total Pick

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The over is also a solid option in this matchup. The primary reason I am suggesting the over is because of Eflin’s performance against the Braves. Atlanta has scored 17 runs in 5.2 innings against him this season, and most of their big hitters in Albies, Acuna Jr, and Donaldson are all hitting over .330 against him, plus the over is 7-3 in Eflin’s last 10 starts overall.

In addition, the Phillies are determined to stay alive in the Wildcard. Their bats are having no problem solving the Braves pitching, plating an average of 5.2 runs in the 13 meetings entering Tuesday. The over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

Insiders Status:


I expect a big night at the plate from the Braves and a play on their team total offered on PointsBet is a good play. The Braves are pouring on the runs against Philly this season, averaging a sizzling 7.21 runs in the 14 meetings. They have scored at least five runs in seven out of the last eight meetings against Philly, and I expect another big number considering their dominance against Eflin.

Prediction: Braves Team Total Over

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

Insiders Status:


I am selecting Dallas Keuchel to record the win. The veteran left-hander has secured the victory in four straight starts as he continues to mow down his opposition. He has limited the Phillies to three runs in 19.1 career innings which included seven innings of two-run ball in the lone meeting this year. Lastly, Keuchel is pitching deep into the game, recording at least six innings in five straight starts.

Prediction: Dallas Keuchel to Record the Win

Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.