Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#961 Chicago Cubs 8.5 vs.
#962 San Diego Padres -105
Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 10:10pm EDT
Written by David Hess

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#961 Chicago
#962 San Diego
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Wednesday evening on the MLB diamond and the National League Central will square off with the National League West as the Chicago Cubs tangle with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park in San Diego, California in game three of a four-game series. The Cubs won game one by a score of 10-2 but lost game two by a score of 9-8 in 10 innings.

Pitching Matchup: Toeing the rubber for the Cubs will be Cole Hamels (7-6, 3.95 ERA) and the Padres will counter with Chris Paddack (8-7, 3.54 ERA).

Cubs Lost A Tough One At Petco

The Chicago Cubs are in a fight for a wild card slot and a possible Central Division title this year, but they suffered a tough loss on Tuesday night. The Cubs were down 8-5 when they tied the scored with three in the 8th, but they couldn’t get the go-ahead runs and eventually lost 9-8 in 10 innings. The offense is clicking as they have now scored 18 runs in the first two games of this series, but the Cubs are just worried about winning games, especially since their lead is just one game over the Brewers for the 2nd wildcard slot and just two games over the Phillies. The Wildcard seems like it will be their only path to the playoffs as the Cubs are now 4.0 games out of first in the NL Central. After this series, the Cubs have a huge 10 game homestand against the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals, so they have a great shot at holding their lead in the wildcard race and they could even make life interesting for the Cards in the Central.

The stars on offense for the Cubs on Tuesday were Kris Bryant (28) and Jason Heyward (21), who each had two homers in the game and drove in seven of Chicago’s eight runs. It just wasn’t enough. Jose Quintana had a rough start after allowing six runs (four earned) on seven hits in just 3.0 innings of work but was bailed out with the late rally in the 8th. Taking the loss was Steve Cishek and he is now 3-6 with a 3.17 ERA on the year. The Cubs have gone 30-43 on the road for the year, compared to going 47-24 at home. That is why their upcoming homestand is so huge.

Taking the hill for the Cubs will be Cole Hamels and he has gone 7-6 with a 3.95 ERA in 24 starts on the year, including 0-2 with a 5.65 ERA in his last three starts and 4-5 with a 5.66 ERA in 12 starts on the road. In his career. he has gone 86-62 with a 3.39 ERA in 214 games (213 starts) on the road and 29-22 with a 3.56 ERA in 75 games (74 starts) during Sept/ Oct. Hamels has gone 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 18 career starts against the Padres, including 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA in nine starts against them the at Petco.

The Cubs have been an above-average offensive team so far as they come in ranked 13th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.92 rpg, while also ranking 14th in hitting at .251 and 7th in homers with 205. On the mound, they have been solid as they come in ranked 7th in the league in ERA at 4.03, while also ranking 9th in WHIP at 1.30 and 16th in K’s with 1253. The bullpen ranks 7th in the league with a 4.02 ERA.

Padres Playing Spoiler

The Chicago Cubs are looking to increase their lead in the National League Wildcard race and they did take game one, but the Padres put on their spoiler’s cap and took game two by a score of 9-8 in 10 innings. The National League wildcard race is a bit tighter after that win by the Padres and they will look to grab another one in this game. They have a shot as Cole Hamels has struggled on the road this year, but we will see. Despite the win, the Padres have still gone just 2-6 over their last eight games. Seeing them put up nine runs was a pleasant surprise for San Diego fans, especially after they averaged just 1.83 rpg over their previous six games. The bad part is that the pitching has been a mess in this series. The Pads have allowed 18 runs in the first two games, after allowing 10 total runs in their previous five games.

The Padres had an 8-5 lead when the Cubs tied it with three in the 8th. The score stayed that way until San Diego won it in the bottom of the 10th on a walk-off walk by Manuel Margot. It was a four-pitch walk and the 3rd walk of the inning for the Padres. Ty France (6) had their lone homer of the game. Ronald Bolanos had a rough outing in his 2nd career start as he allowed five ERs on five hits and four walks in 5.0 innings of work but he escaped with the no-decision. Grabbing the win was Michel Baez, who is now 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA on the year. The Padres have gone 34-39 here at home for the year.

Chris Paddack will get the ball for the Padres in this one and he has gone 80-7 with a 3.54 ERA in 24 starts in this his first year in the league, including 1-1 with a 4.30 ERA in his last three starts and 5-3 with a 3.40 ERA in 10 starts here at home. Paddack has never faced the Cubs.

The Padres have been poor on offense so far as they come in ranked 25th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.31 rpg, while also ranking 26th in hitting at .242 and 137h in homers with 202. On the mound, they have been below average as they rank 16th in the league in ERA at 4.55, while also ranking 9th in WHIP at 1.30 and 11th in K’s with 1227. Their pen ranks 16th in ERA at 4.54.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

I will be rolling with the Padres in this one. Chicago needs this one more, but they are not a good road team at all and Cole Hamels has posted a 5.66 ERA away from home this season. That compares to a 2.66 ERA at home. He also owns a 5.61 ERA at night, compared to a 2.61 ERA in day games. I feel that the Padres hae the edge on the mound in this one as Chris Paddack has been their ace this year and he has a solid 3.40 ERA here at home for the season. The Padres will not be going to the postseason, but they are a young team that is trying to build some confidence and grabbing wins over a playoff-contending team is a way to do that. Take the Padres to grab a nice win in this one.

Prediction: San Diego -102

Full-Game Total Pick

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Rating:

I love the Over in this game. Game one saw 12 runs being scored and game two saw 17 runs being scored. Who says Petco isn’t a hitter’s park? LOL. Anyway, the Cubs do have a strong offense and While Paddack has a 3.40 ERA here at home, he has a 4.30 ERA in his last three starts overall. On the other side is Cole Hamels, who has a 5.66 ERA on the road, a 5.65 ERA in his last three starts overall and a 5.61 ERA at night. Bad numbers across the board there. The Padres have struggled to score at home, but they have averaged 4.41 runs per nine off of southpaws at home, compared to averaging just 3.99 runs per nine off of righties. both offenses should have some fun in this one and the clincher is the fact that the Over is 9-2-1 in San Diego’s last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning record, plus 14-6-1 in their last 21 home games overall. Look for this one to go up and over the total.

Prediction: Over 8
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Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.