Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#953 Milwaukee Brewers -140 vs.
#954 Miami Marlins 8.5
Wednesday, September 11, 2019 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Miami Marlins as the NL foes resume a four-game series Wednesday night from Marlins Park. The Brewers will give the nod to 26-year old right-hander Zach Davies, and the Marlins will counter with 23-year old right-hander Pablo Lopez. The Brewers lead the season series 3-2.

Zach Davies Returns to Win Column, Targets 4th Career Win vs. Marlins

The Brewers will have Zach Davies on the mound in this one. Davies was solid in his previous start, limiting the Cubs to just one run in five innings, fuelling a win to lift his record to 9-7. The talented right-hander is pitching well right now, although he is not pitching deep into games, and he enters this one with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP in 141.1 innings of action. Davies has yet to face the Marlins this season, and he is 3-2 with a poor 5.67 ERA in five career meetings. Curtis Granderson is 4 for 14 against Davies, while Miguel Rojas is 2 for 4, and Martin Prado is 4 for 12.

The Brewers are going to have to reach the playoffs without star Christian Yelich. The reigning MVP sustained a broken knee cap and he is out for the remainder of the year. Yelich leads the Brewers in all offensive categories, and they will need their veterans to step up in his absence.

The Brewers are out of contention for the NL Central division title, however, they are alive and well in the Wildcard picture. They trail the Cubs by only two games for the 2nd position, and they do have a reasonably easy schedule the rest of the way.

The Brewers have heated up at the plate, and they are currently averaging 4.72 runs on the season, ranking them 19th in the Majors. The Milwaukee pitching staff is carrying a 4.59 team ERA, positioning them 17th overall. The Brew Crew stand at 32-37 on the road.

Lopez Charged with Third Straight Defeat

Pablo Lopez will get the nod for the 18th time of the year, looking to avoid his fourth straight defeat. Lopez evaded danger last time out, scattering two runs on eight hits in 6.1 innings against the Royals, resulting in another defeat to dip his record to 5-8. The young right-hander can be effective as seen in his outstanding 1.16 WHIP, although he does hold a poor 4.75 ERA in 91 innings logged. Lopez tallied six scoreless innings in a 16-0 win in his only meeting against Milwaukee this season, and he surrendered five runs to the Brewers in his only other career meeting in his 2018 rookie season. Yasmani Grandal is 0 for 2 against Lopez, while Mike Moustakas is 0f or 3, and Travis Shaw is 1 for 4.

Garret Cooper has been a tough out against the Brewers this season, going 7 for 17 with three RBI’s. The 28-year old right fielder is having a solid rookie year, filing a .282 average with 14 homers and 49 RBI’s. Cooper has registered six RBI’s on the month.

The Marlins haven’t displayed any significant improvement at the plate as they continue to rank near the bottom in most categories, although their young hitters are gaining valuable experience that will come in handy next year. The Marlins pitching is on the rise, and they rank 16th in the big leagues with a 1.35 team WHIP.

The Marlins stand 29th in the big leagues with an average of 3.75 runs on the season. The Miami pitching staff owns a 4.76 team ERA, placing them 21st in the Majors. The Marlins are 29-46 at home.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am siding with the Brewers in this one. Each game in this series is a must-win for the Brewers as they look to remain in the postseason hunt. Marlins’ starter Pablo Lopez has hit a bump, surrendering 12 runs in his last 14.1 innings, and he was charged with the loss in all three of those starts.

Furthermore, Zach Davies is pitching with confidence after allowing a total of only one run in his last two starts. He is outstanding on the road where he features a sharp 2.83 ERA on the season. The Brewers just won three straight games against the Cubs this weekend, and they opened this series with a big 8-3 win on Monday night for their fourth straight victory.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Full-Game Total Pick

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I expect this game to evolve into a lower scoring contest. Zach Davies should be able to neutralize the Marlins in this one considering he just shut down the Cubs in back-to-back starts, and the under is a convincing 19-6-1 in his last 26 road starts.

Moreover, Pablo Lopez is much better at Marlins Park where he holds a surprisingly good 2.68 ERA on the season, so he should at least contain the Brewers, plus the under is 11-5 in his last 16 starts overall.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The under on the Marlins team total offered on PointsBet is a strong play. The Marlins continue to rank last in the NL in runs per game. They only managed a combined 11 runs in three games against the Royals this past weekend, followed by three runs in each of the first two games of this series. The Brewers have conceded three or fewer runs in four out of their last five games, and they should shut down the Marlins in this one.

Prediction: Marlins Team Total Under

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am selecting the over on the three-inning total. Both pitchers are vulnerable to runs in the first third of a game. Pablo Lopez holds an awful 5.29 ERA through the first three innings, and Zach Davies is carrying a 4.24 ERA in that span. In addition, the Brewers most productive stretch at the plate occurs in innings 1-3 with 229 runs.

Prediction: Three Inning Total Over
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.