New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
When and Where: Wednesday, Sept. 12, Target Field, Minneapolis, Minn., 8:10 p.m. EDT.
Luis Severino looks to become just the third 18-game winner in the majors and snap out of his post-All Star break funk as he leads the New York Yankees into the finale of their three-game series versus the Minnesota Twins on Wednesday night.
Severino looking to regain early season form
While Severino (17-7, 3.52 ERA) is an AL Cy Young Award candidate, he has not been as effective as he was early in the season when he sported a sub-2.00 ERA as late as July 1.
The right-hander is 3-5 with a 6.95 ERA over his nine starts since the All-Star break, during which his overall earned run average has spiked almost one and one-quarter runs. Severino had a rough outing at Oakland last Wednesday, getting tagged for six runs and six hits in a season-low 2 2-3 innings of an 8-2 defeat.
“I just need to do a better job. I know right now I’m not at my best,” Severino told the club’s official website. “I need to perform like I was in the first half. I try my best and try to look at what’s going on wrong. I think a couple of good outings I had there in the past I was getting better. I just need to bounce back and get like I was in the first half.”
Severino has allowed three or more runs in each of his last seven road starts, posting a 6.75 ERA while splitting six decisions in that span. Opponents are hitting .322 in those games, racking up 49 hits — 2o of them for extra bases — against the righty in 36 innings. He is 3-0 with a 3.81 ERA in four road outings against AL Central teams this year, winning at Kansas City, Detroit and Chicago.
His lone career start against the Twins last year was used more as a tuneup for the postseason as he allowed three runs and five hits in three innings while throwing 71 pitches. Severino did not get a decision as New York eventually won 11-3.
Slumping Odorizzi looks to avoid four-start losing streak
Jake Odorizzi (5-10, 4.57 ERA) is trying to avoid the first four-start losing streak of his career as he takes the ball in the series finale for Minnesota.
The right-hander has permitted 10 runs and 17 hits over 12 innings during his skid, but what has hurt has been the eight walks in that stretch as he has held opposing hitters to a .200 batting average. Odorizzi served up a pair of two-run homers and allowed five runs overall with four hits and four walks over 4 2-3 innings of a 9-1 setback at Houston last Wednesday.
Home has treated him slightly better, having split eight decisions while posting a 4.73 ERA in 14 starts at Target Field. Odorizzi has allowed two or fewer runs in four of his last six starts there, winning two of three decisions in that span.
The long ball proved problematic in his start against the Yankees earlier this season, yielding homers to Giancarlo Stanton and Miguel Andujar in a 14-1 thrashing April 23 in which he yielded five runs and five hits with three walks in 4 2-3 innings. He is 5-8 with a 4.61 ERA in 14 lifetime starts versus New York but has served up 13 homers in just 46 2-3 innings over the last eight.
Greg Bird is 3 for 7 with a pair of round-trippers and a double against Odorizzi, and Stanton is 3 for 9 with that home run from April.
The Twins are:
- 1-5 in Odorizzi’s last six starts vs. above-.500 teams.
- 0-5 in Odorizzi’s last five starts during game 3 of a series.
- 1-8 in their last nine during game 3 of a series.
- The over is 4-0 in Odorizzi’s last four starts vs. AL East teams.
- The over is 7-1 in their last eight games vs. the Yankees.
- The over is 15-6-2 in their last 23 home games vs. the Yankees.
The Yankees are:
- 11-1 in Severino’s last 12 Wednesday starts.
- 8-1 in Severino’s last nine starts vs. AL Central teams.
- 17-4 in Severino’s last 21 starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
- The over is 10-2 in Severino’s last 12 starts.
- The over is 16-5 in Severino’s last 21 starts vs. AL Central teams.
- The over is 6-2 in Severino’s last eight road starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
While there is still some worry whether Severino is going to be the pitcher the Yankees turn to for their wild-card game, this contest at least appears to give the right-hander a sizable margin of error to chase his 18th win and begin making a push for the stretch run. Odorizzi’s recent form does little to inspire confidence the Twins have enough offense in case he goes sideways again.
Prediction: Pick: Yankees -215
Full-Game Total Pick
Given the recent form of both pitchers, it is a little surprising to see this check in under nine runs, which makes the over a strong play. It would also not be surprising to see Yankees manager Aaron Boone let Severino pitch his way through a few hiccups to let him get on track, and New York’s offense will likely tee off on Odorizzi.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 8.5 runs (-125)
Full-Game Prop Bet
The teams have combined to top 30 in five of the six games this season, including both games in this series, and with the form of both pitchers heading into this contest, there is no reason to believe the trend will buck here. While both this and the over/under for total runs are very strong leans for the over, this one gets a slight edge between the two as the better play.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 27.5 Runs+Hits+Errors (-115)
First Five Innings Side Pick
With Severino struggling to regain his form, taking the Yankees on the straight money line feels like a better play than the Yankees giving 1.5 runs in the first five innings at -135.
Prediction: Pick: Yankees -220
First Five Innings Total Bet
The teams have combined to score more than five runs in the first five innings in four of the six games this year, splitting the two games in this series. But again, taking the over goes to the recent form of both pitchers. Severino has given up nine runs in the first five innings in his last two starts, while Odorizzi has not been much better by yielding eight in the last three.
Prediction: Pick: OVER 5 runs (-110)
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
This plays more into Severino’s first-inning struggles on the road as he has yielded at least one run in the opening frame in five of his last six starts outside the Bronx. Odorizzi has not yielded a first-inning run in his last eight home starts, but his overall recent form gives this pick a fighting chance.
Prediction: Pick: YES to 1st-inning run (-110)