San Diego Padres at Seattle Mariners
When and Where: Wednesday, Sept. 12, Safeco Field, Seattle, Wash., 6:40 p.m. EDT.
Joey Lucchesi looks to beat the Seattle Mariners for the second time in two weeks as the San Diego Padres wrap up a two-game interleague series in the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday night.
Lucchesi looks to get back to .500 for Padres
Lucchesi (7-8, 3.59 ERA) is trying to become only the second Padres rookie to win eight games in a season this century, with Luis Perdomo setting the standard by going 9-10 in 2016.
The left-hander was denied back-to-back wins for the second time this season in a 6-0 loss at Arizona on Sept. 4 when he yielded two runs and three hits in five innings. It was the fifth time in six starts Lucchesi has allowed three or fewer runs and the sixth straight outing he has struck out at least nine.
“He’s doing a really nice job,” manager Andy Green told the Padres’ official website. “We’re not going to conjecture about what next year looks like right now. But we’re pleased with his rookie season, and we’ll continue to challenge him in areas we want him to grow in.”
Lucchesi had one of his best starts of the season against the Mariners on Aug. 29, limiting them to one run and six hits over 6 2-3 innings while matching a season high with nine strikeouts in an 8-3 romp. The 25-year-old has split two decisions in three interleague starts and is 2-3 with a 2.98 ERA in eight road starts.
LeBlanc faces former team for Mariners
Wade LeBlanc (8-3, 3.56 ERA) started his career with the Padres, making his major league debut in 2008, and is making his second start and seventh overall appearance versus his former team.
The left-hander carries an 18-inning shutout streak into this game but had nothing to show from the last outing. LeBlanc scattered six hits and one walk in six innings, losing out on a victory as the Mariners bullpen faltered in a 5-3 defeat Sept. 4.
LeBlanc’s solid outing at home versus the Orioles was a welcome change after his previous two starts at Safeco Field in which he was pounded for 14 runs and 17 hits in 8 2-3 innings while losing both. The lefty is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA in 12 starts and 14 overall appearances at home.
He is 1-2 with a 6.10 ERA in four interleague starts this season, splitting two decisions at home despite giving up 11 runs and 12 hits in 10 1-3 innings. LeBlanc has a 2.61 ERA versus the Padres spanning 10 1-3 innings in six appearances.
The Mariners are:
- 10-1 in LeBlanc’s last 11 starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
- 15-3 in LeBlanc’s last 18 home starts.
- 6-1 in LeBlanc’s last seven home starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
- The under is 20-9-1 in their last 30 games vs. left-handed starters.
- The under is 7-3 in LeBlanc’s last 10 starts.
- The under is 4-1 in LeBlanc’s last five home starts vs. sub-.500 teams.
The Padres are:
- 3-13 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series.
- 3-8 in Lucchesi’s last 11 starts vs. above-.500 teams.
- 1-4 in Lucchesi’s last five road starts vs. above-.500 teams.
- The under is 4-1 in Lucchesi’s last five road starts.
- The under is 10-4 in their last 14 Wednesday games.
- The under is 5-2 in Lucchesi’s last seven starts.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
Both pitchers are enjoying a solid stretch, but the slight edge belongs to LeBlanc with his shutout streak and his solid track record against sub-.500 teams. Lucchesi should make this interesting given his last outing against the Mariners, though.
Prediction: Pick: Mariners -160
Full-Game Total Pick
The form of both pitchers makes the under a strong play in this contest, and another factor in that favor is the Mariners having scored more than three runs just once in their last seven games heading into Tuesday night’s series opener.
Prediction: Pick: UNDER 7.5 runs
Full-Game Prop Bet
Both Lucchesi and LeBlanc are sporting WHIPs that are hovering around 1.00 covering each of their last three starts. Lucchesi’s strong outing against the Mariners nearly a fortnight ago also plays into taking the under here, as does the fact Seattle has played to 20 or under in its last four games.
Prediction: Pick: UNDER 25.5 Runs+Hits+Errors (-115)
First Five Innings Side Pick
This is a pick that combines LeBlanc’s form coupled with the Padres not scoring runs early for Lucchesi. San Diego has failed to score in the first five innings in two of the rookie’s last three starts, the exception being against Seattle when the Padres pounded Erasmo Ramirez early.
Prediction: Pick: Mariners -0.5 runs (-110)
First Five Innings Total Bet
With both teams scuffling offensively and coming off San Diego’s 2-1 victory Tuesday night to open the series, the under is a strong play with Lucchesi and LeBlanc’s respective forms. It should also be noted the Mariners were held to one run in the first five innings in two of LeBlanc’s last three starts.
Prediction: Pick: UNDER 4 runs (-115)
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
This one is more contingent on Lucchesi than LeBlanc as the rookie has been reached for a first-inning run in four of his last eight starts, though he does sport a 3.27 ERA in the opening frame. LeBlanc has a 5.48 ERA in the first but has gotten through eight of his last 10 starts unscathed in the opening inning.
Prediction: Pick: NO to 1st-inning run (-140)