Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#905 Los Angeles Dodgers vs.
#906 Arizona Diamondbacks
Monday, September 12, 2022 at 9:40pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

This article covers a past game!

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This Monday, the (95-43) Los Angeles Dodgers and the (65-73) Arizona Diamondbacks will play game one of this three-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 9:40 PM EST inside Chase Field. The last time these two teams matched up, the Dodgers ended up sweeping the Diamondbacks in four games.

The Dodgers are coming into this one after a tough series with the San Diego Padres. They split the first two games, as the Dodgers looked great at the plate in game two. They scored eight runs, as the Padres couldn't keep them off the bases. Los Angeles also looked great to win the series in game three.

The Diamondbacks will be entering this one after losing their previous series to the Colorado Rockies. The Diamondbacks struggled on the mound, as they gave up 17 combined runs in the first two games of that series. They will have to be better on the mound if they want to take care of business at home against the Dodgers.

Looking for my Best Bet?

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Can the Dodgers Stay Hot?

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been one of the best teams in the league this season, as they currently hold the number one seed in the NL Playoffs. The Dodgers are also 5-5 in their last 10, as they still lead the NL West by 19.0 games, while the Padres are still way behind.

At the plate, the Dodgers are scoring 5.42 runs per game and they are hitting .260 as a team. This is the most runs scored per game and the third-highest overall team batting average, as the Dodgers have continued to drive in men when they are in scoring position this season. They can score multiple different ways, as they can string together hits or clear the bases with a moon shot over the outfield walls. Los Angeles is currently averaging 1.36 bombs per game, which is the fourth most in the league. I also expect the Dodgers to stay aggressive once they have reached base safely. They have already taken 88 bases this season, which is the sixth most. They have a ton of speed inside their lineup and they aren't afraid to risk these baserunners.

According to MLB.com, Tyler Anderson will be getting the start in this game. He is currently 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP. His opponents have struggled to consistently reach base against him and he has been solid on the road. Outside of Dodgers Stadium, he is 6-3 with a 3.12 ERA. In his last start, he pitched for 7.0 innings and he only gave up three earned runs. The Dodgers bullpen has also been great this season, as they have the third lowest bullpen ERA in the league. They are only allowing 3.03 runs per game. As a team, the Dodgers are allowing 3.24 runs per game, which is the least in the entire league.

Can the Diamondbacks Bounce Back at Home>

The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently 4-6 in their last 10 games played, as they struggled against the Rockies in their last series. The Diamondbacks are also still 11 games back from the San Diego Padres for the third and final NL Wild Card spot, as their poor play has allowed them to slide in the wrong direction. Arizona is also still in fourth place in the NL West, as they are 30 games back from the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers.

At the plate, the Diamondbacks are scoring 4.56 runs per game and they are hitting .232 as a team. This is the 10th most runs scored per game, but only the 23rd highest overall team batting average, as they have struggled to consistently reach base this season. The Diamondbacks have also realized that they have a decent amount of power hidden inside of their lineup. They are currently hitting 1.13 home runs per game, which is the 14th most in the league. Watch for Christian Walker at the plate in this one, as he leads the team with 32 bombs. I also expect the Diamondbacks to stay aggressive once they have reached base safely. They have already swiped 75 bases this season, which is the 14th most.

According to MLB.com, the Diamondbacks will be starting Merrill Kelly on the mound. He is 12-5 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 7.0 innings, but he gave up four earned runs off of three home runs. He was leaving the ball over the middle and the Padres took advantage. Kelly has been decent at home, as well. Inside Chase Field, he is 4-4 with a 2.92 ERA. Unfortunately, Arizona's bullpen has continued to struggle, as they have the 26th highest bullpen ERA in the league. As a team, the Diamondbacks are allowing 4.67 runs per game, which is the 22nd most in the league.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I will be hammering the Dodgers run line (-1.5) in this matchup with the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers have controlled the NL West for multiple years now and they aren't slowing down anytime soon. They are also scoring the most runs per game and they have the third-highest overall team batting average. They will consistently reach base and give themselves multiple chances to score. The Diamondbacks have struggled on the mound all season and that will continue in this one. Their bullpen is giving up the 26th most runs per game and Merrill Kelly got lit up in his last start. He pitched for 7.0 innings, but he gave up three hits and four earned runs. The Padres got to him early and I see the Dodgers doing that to him again. Los Angeles has one of the deepest batting lineups in the league and they can score multiple different ways. The Dodgers are also hitting 1.36 home runs per game, which is the fourth most in the MLB. The Diamondbacks won't be able to keep up with them at the plate and Tyler Anderson will pick up another win. He has been solid on the road all season and Arizona has the 23rd lowest overall team batting average in the league. They won't consistently reach base and the Dodgers will pull away.

Hammer the Los Angeles Dodgers and lay the run line spread (-1.5).

Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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I will be taking the under 9 runs in this matchup, as I don't see the Diamondbacks scoring enough runs to push this total over the number. The Los Angeles Dodgers are currently allowing 3.24 runs per game, which is the lowest average in the MLB. The Diamondbacks are going to struggle to consistently reach base and Tyler Anderson will continue to keep them off the scoreboard. Tyler Anderson is getting the start on the mound and he has been an absolute beast this season. He is currently 14-3 with a 2.73 ERA and a 1.o3 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 7.0 innings and he only allowed three earned runs. I also see the Dodger's bullpen keeping the Diamondbacks off the scoreboard late in this game, as they have been great this season. They are allowing 3.03 runs per game, which is the third least in the entire league. They don't make many mistakes and they allow the Dodger's batting lineup to pull away. Arizona isn't hitting the ball well enough to push this total over 9. They won't be able to push this total over the number by themselves.

Take the under 9 and trust the Dodgers on the mound in this one.

Prediction: Under 9
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!