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Marlins vs. Phillies,
9-13-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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#903 Miami
Marlins
#904 Philadelphia
Phillies

Wednesday, September 13, 2017 at 7:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Miami Marlins (68-75 SU, 74-69 RL, 72-62-9 O/U) vs Philadelphia Phillies (54-89 SU, 77-66 RL, 65-67-11 O/U)

When: 7:05 PM EDT, Wednesday, September 13, 2017

Where: Citizens Bank in Philadelphia, PA

Lines: Philadelphia -110/ Miami +100

Total: 8.5

Tonight on the MLB diamond, a pair of National League East foes will hookup as the Miami Marlins do battle with the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA in game two of their three-game series. Philly has gone 42-20 their last 62 home games in the series. Pitching Probables: Dan Straily (9-8, 3.95 ERA) will get the nod for the Marlins in the one and the Phils will counter with Aaron Nola (10-10, 3.71 ERA).

Marlins Continue To Struggle Down The Stretch

The Miami Marlins had their chances right after the break to stay in the chase for a wildcard berth but that is no longer available for them as they have gone just 2-12 in their last 14 games. They are The offense is starting to come back as they have averaged 6.25 rpg over their last four games, after averaging just 2.3 rpg over their previous 10 games, but still, it a little too late and they are still having issues on the mound as they have a 5.09 ERA in their last 10 games. The Fish have many things to figure out over the offseason and many feel that it would be in the best interest of the team over the long run to deal Giancarlo Stanton, who is their best hitter and leads the league in homers with 54. They could probably get a lot for him. The Marlins have gone 32-40 on the road and have averaged 4.97 rpg and have allowed 5.26 rpg in those games. Toeing the slab for the Marlins in this one will be Dan Straily and he has gone 9-8 with a 3.95 ERA in 29 starts on the year, including 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA in his last three starts and 5-5 with a 4.67 ERA in 14 starts on the road. Straily has gone 9-3 with a 4.20 ERa in 24 games (17 starts) during Sept/ Oct and he is 4-1 with a 3.90 ERA in five career starts against the Phillies, including 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in two starts here at Citizens Bank Park.

The Marlins have been a bit below average on offense this year so far as they come in ranked 16th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.64 rpg, while also ranking 6th in hitting at .263 and 19th in homers with 171. On the mound, they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 21st in the league in ERA at 4.65, while also ranking 23rd in WHIP at 1.40.

Offense Gives Phils Hope For The Future

It has been rough for the Phillies over the last few years, but next year they should start to climb back to respectability. The team will be led by Rhys Hoskins, who could be one or the most feared hitters in the league next year. Hoskins got the call up from AAA shortly after the All-Star Break and he has 14 homers, 32 RBIs and 21 walks in just 31 games played. The Phillies haven’t had an offensive threat of his caliber since the early year of Ryan Howard. They also have Tommy Joseph (21 homers), who has power but could hit more for average, plus Aaron Altherr (.282, 16 homers), Nick Williams (10 homers), Daniel Nava (.301) and Odubel Herrera (.289, 12 homers). This has the makings of a good offense and they have been very hot at the plate as they have averaged 5.44 rpg in their last 23 games and 4.69 rpg in the 32 games that Hoskins has been a part of the team. He is the key. The Phillies have gone 28-37 at home and have averaged 4.32 rpg and have allowed 5.18 rpg in those games. Taking the hill for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola and he has gone 10-10 with a 3.71 ERA in 24 starts on the year, including 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA in his last three starts and 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 starts here at home. Nola has gone 1-2 with a 4.93 ERA in seven career starts in Sept/ Oct and 12-11 with a 3.70 ERA in 26 career starts here at the Bank, while against the Marlins in his career overall he has gone 1-3 with a 5.24 ERA in six starts.

The Phillies have been a bad offensive team so far as they come in ranked 27th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.16 rpg, while also ranking 20th in hitting at .251 and 26th in homers with 152. On the mound, they have been poor as they come in ranked 23rd in the league in ERA at 4.74, while also ranking 24th in WHIP at 1.41.    

Trends

Miami is:

  • The Over is 7-2 in their last nine during game two of a series
  • The Over is 11-5-3 in their last 19 road games vs. a team with a losing home record

Philadelphia is:

  • The Over is 33-15-5 in their last 53 Wednesday games

Neither of these teams are going anywhere this year and both have struggled of late. The Marlins will send out Dan Straily in this one and while he has allowed three ERs or less in seven of his last eight starts, but he does have a 4.67 ERA on the road. Aaron Nola has been the Phils’ best starter for much of the year, but he has a 6.59 ERA in his last five starts, plus he also has a 10.67 ERA in three starts against the fish this year. His last five starts have averaged 12.4 rpg, while his three starts against Miami this year have averaged 17.0 rpg. Straily’s last five starts have averaged 14.2 rpg, his road starts have averaged 10.14 rpg and his four starts against the Phillies this year have averaged 16.0 rpg. I don’t see how this game doesn’t hit double-digits in runs scored, so take the Over.

Pick: Over 8.5

David Hess

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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