Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#957 Chicago Cubs vs.
#958 New York Mets
Tuesday, September 13, 2022 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by David Delano

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The New York Mets' (89-53) journey for a National League East title and beyond continues on Tuesday when they host the Chicago Cubs (59-81) on Tuesday in the second contest of a three-game series. The Cubs pulled off a huge upset Monday winning 5-1 as a +253 underdog. The Mets now hold a 3-2 edge over the Cubs in head-to-head games this season, and head into Tuesday as an even bigger favorite.

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Cubs open series with the upset

After losing 4-2 on Sunday Night Baseball, the Cubs bounced back to win 5-1 and pull off a massive upset on Monday in the series-opening game. The Cubs were effective against Chris Bassitt, took a 5-0 lead in the top of the fourth and held on the rest of the way. Rafael Ortega and Zach McKininstry both drove in two runs in the win.

The Cubs are third in the NL Central, 24.5 games out of first and out of contention, and have guaranteed their second straight losing season. On the road, Chicago is 29-40 and 19th in money line profit at according to covers.com in those games. The Cubs are 71-70 against the run line and 17th in profit.

Chicago is 18th in on-base percentage and batting average, 23rd in scoring, 17th in home runs, and third in stolen bases. They have three position players with a WAR of 3.8 or better, but a substantial drop after that. Nico Hoerner (4.5 WAR) leads the club with a .291 batting average and 18 steals. Ian Happ (3.9 WAR) has 16 home runs and a club-best 65 RBI), and Wilson Contreras (3.8 WAR) has only played in 107 games but has 21 home runs and 54 RBI. Contreras has not played since August 30 and is out indefinitely, and Hoerner is questionable.

Starting for Chicago on Tuesday will be Adrian Sampson (1-5, 3.76 ERA). He is 1-2 with a 3.31 ERA in seven road starts.

deGrom looks to lead bounce back

The Mets led the National East by 1.5 games following the loss to the Cubs, with the Braves' results against the Giants still pending at the time of this preview. After scoring 20 runs on 30 hits in their previous two wins against the Marlins. the Mets couldn't get going on. The offense went 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position and left the bases load in both the first and eighth inning. On the mound, starting pitcher Chris Bassitt was knocked from the game after 3.2 innings, after going at least five innings in 14 straight starts. The offense went 1 for 9 with runners in scoring position and left the bases load in both the first and eighth inning.

New York is now 46-24 at home this season and has been the fifth most profitable team in baseball in those games according to covers.com. They are also third on the run line profit overall and have a 77-65 record. against the runline.

Jacob deGrom (5-1, 1.66 ERA) will start Tuesday with the Mets a -420 money line favorite. deGrom is 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA in four home starts.

New York ranks second in MLB in on-base percentage and fifth in scoring and batting average. They are 16th in home runs and 24th in stolen bases. The Mets have five position players with a WAR above 3.0, led by shortstop Francisco Lindor (5.0 WAR, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 15 SB). Pete Alonso leads the club with 33 home runs and 109 RBI, and Jeff McNeil has a team-best 146 hits and is third in MLB with a .322 batting average.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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It's hard to go against the Mets in this spot, but they also had a huge advantage Monday and lost. As great as deGrom has been in his seven starts this season, only three of those games have resulted in a New York win by two runs or more. Adrian Sampson as also been tough on the hill for in spots for the Cubs this season, including only allowing two runs in 5.1 innings against the Mets in a 3-2 Cubs win on July 17. New York should win the game, but at this price they aren't backable for me. I will take the +150 shot on the Cubs to keep this game within a run.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs +1.5 (+150)

Full-Game Total Pick

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I like the Cubs to keep this game close, but if this a high scoring game its advantage Mets. New York has not allowed more than three runs in any of deGrom's last six starts, and the Cubs have only allowed more than four runs in two of Sampson's last six road starts. I will take the under, expecting a 3-2 New York win.

Prediction: Under 7
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Written By David Delano , "David Delano"

David Delano is a Bowling Green State University graduate with a passion for sports, traveling, and music. David loves to handicap MLB, NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, WNBA, and is also a big fan of boxing and track and field. Over the years, David has worn several hats in the sports world, from being behind the camera to writing, filming, editing, scouting, and coaching, along with servicing his clients as a sports handicapper.  He is also an expert sports bettor. We are glad to have David on our Winners & Whiners team, and we recommend that you follow along with him every day. 

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