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Marlins vs. Phillies,
9-14-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#957 Miami
Marlins
#958 Philadelphia
Phillies

Thursday, September 14, 2017 at 7:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Marlins

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Philadelphia Phillies

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

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Miami Marlins (68-76 SU, 74-70 RL, 73-62-9 O/U) vs Philadelphia Phillies (55-89 SU, 78-66 RL, 66-67-11 O/U)

When: 7:05 PM EDT, Thursday, September 14, 2017

Where: Citizens Bank in Philadelphia, PA

Lines: Miami -131/ Philadelphia +121

Total: 9.5

Major League Baseball action on Thursday evening and a pair of National League East foes will square off as the Miami Marlins rumble with the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, PA in the final game of their three-game series. The season series is tied at 8-8 (Pending Wednesday). Pitching Probables: Jose Urena (13-6, 3.61 ERA) will get the nod for the Marlins in the one and he will be opposed by Jake Thompson (1-2, 5.23 ERA).

The Pitching Has Been Struggling For The Fish

The Marlins are really not finishing this season on an up note. They lost game one of this series by a 9-8 score, in 15 innings) and have now gone just 2-13 in their last 15 games. Their pitching has been the biggest culprit of late as they have an ERA of 5.35 over their last 10 games, including an ERA of 6.31 from their pen over that stretch and that pen was the real reason they lost game one of this series. Dillon Peters got the start and allowed just two ERs on six hits and four walks in 6.0 innings of work, but the pen allowed seven runs (six earned) on 11 hits and four walks over the last 8.2 innings of work. The Marlins had a 7-2 lead when Peters left the game. This pitching is very bad for Miami right now and will have to be addressed in the offseason. Miami is 32-41 on the road and have averaged 5.01 rpg and have allowed 5.32 rpg in those games.  Jose Urena will get the call in this one for the Marlins and he has gone 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA in 30 games (24 starts) on the year, including 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA in his last three starts and 9-1 with a 4.09 ERA in 15 games (12 starts) on the road. Urena has gone 17-19 with a 4.48 ERA in 45 career starts overall, while against the Phillies in his career he has gone 1-2 with a 5.34 ERA in nine games (five starts), including 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in five games (three starts) here at Citizens Bank Park.

The Marlins have been average on offense this year so far as they come in ranked 15th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.66 rpg, while also ranking 7th in hitting at .263 and 19th in homers with 173. On the mound they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 21st in the league in ERA at 4.66, while also ranking 23rd in WHIP at 1.41.

Could Rhys Hoskins Be Better Than Ryan Howard?

The Phillies have been the worst team in baseball this year and it has been a combination of horrible offense and poor pitching. Well, the offense has taken a turn for the better, especially with the addition of Rhys Hoskins to the lineup. He has been a beast so far and has been the Phillies best offensive threat since the early years of Ryan Howard. Could Hoskins be better than him? Howard played 88 games in his first full year and had 22 homers and 63 RBIs in that year. He then went on to hit 58 homers the next year and has 382 in his career. Hoskins had two homers in the game one win over the Marlins and now has 16 on the year and has played in just 32 games so far.  One other plus of Hoskins is that he doesn’t strike out a lot as he has 26 K’s in his 32 games, while Howard had 100 in his first year. Hoskins also has 23 walks so far, while Howard had just 33 in his first year. How this all plays out in his career is still up in the air, but for now, he is clearly having a better first year than Howard. The Phillies have gone 29-37 at home and have averaged 4.39 rpg and have allowed 5.23 rpg in those games. The Phillies will send out Jake Thompson in this one and he has gone 1-2 with a 5.23 ERA in eight games (five starts) in the year, including 0-1 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts and 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA in five games (two starts) here at home. Thompson has gone 4-8 with a 5.31 ERA in 15 career starts overall, while against the Marlins he has gone 0-0 with 4.91 ERA in two starts in his career.

The Phillies have been a bad offensive team so far as they come in ranked 27th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.19 rpg, while also ranking 19th in hitting at .251 and 26th in homers with 154. On the mound they have been poor as they come in ranked 23rd in the league in ERA at 4.74, while also ranking 24th in WHIP at 1.41.

Trends

Miami is:

  • The Over is 8-3 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter
  • The Over is 37-17 in their last 54 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

Philadelphia is:

  • The Over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter
  • The Over is 4-1-1 in Thompson’s last six starts vs. the National League East

The Phillies are going to be a fun team to watch next year, especially with what looks to be a much-improved offense. The Marlins have some tough choices ahead, especially when it comes to Giancarlo Stanton as they could trade him and get a lot in return or they can keep him and home to rebuild the team with a mediocre farm system. The Marlins are really struggling at the moment, especially on the mound and the Phillies have been very hot offensively of late. Hoskins is a beast and has really made this offense so much better. Jake Thompson has not pitched well and the Marlins have been hot on offense of late as they have averaged 6.60 rpg in their last 10 games. Game one put up 17 runs and I will look for at least 12 runs to be scored in this one.

Pick: Over 9.5

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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