Friday evening on the MLB diamond and a pair of teams from the American League Central will duke it out as the Detroit Tigers grapple with the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. This is game one of a three-game series. Pitching Probables: Matthew Boyd (9-12, 4.12 ERA) will toe the rubber for the Tigers and he will be opposed by Josh Tomlin (1-5, 6.63 ERA).
Tigers Get Swept By Astros
The Detroit Tigers just continue to have a rough season. They enter this game having lost their last four in a row, including all three games at home to the Astros. They were competitive in that series as all three losses were by just one run. The Tigers are now at 28 games under .500 for the year and will just look to build some confidence for next year. In their finale against the Astros, they lost by a score of 5-4 and leading their attack in the game was Nicholas Castellanos, who ripped his 21st homer of the year and drove in two runs. James McCann also went deep in the game and he now has eight on the year. Daniel Norris has a tough outing as he allowed five ERs on eight hits and a walk in 4.2 innings of work. He is now at 0-4 with a 6.14 ERA on the year. The Tigers have averaged 34.72 rpg and have allowed 5.07 rpg on the road.
The Tigers will trot out Matthew Boyd and he has gone 9-12 with a 4.11 ERA in 28 starts on the year, including 3-9 with a 5.66 ERA in 15 starts on the road. In his career, he has gone 9-21 with a 5.99 ERA in 44 games (42 starts) on the road and 3-7 with a 4,96 ERA in 17 starts during Sept/ Oct, while against the Indians he has gone 1-3 with a 3.05 ERA in seven games (six starts), including 1-2 with a 3.86 ERA in four starts here at Progressive Field.
The Tigers have been a poor offensive team so far as they come in ranked 25th in the league in scoring, putting up 3.91 rpg, while also ranking 22nd in hitting at .242 and 28th in homers with 125. On the mound, they have been below average so far as they enter this contest ranked 20th in the league in ERA at 4.44, while also ranking 19th in WHIP at 1.32 and 27th in K’s with 1092. The bullpen ranks 21st in the league with a 4.37 ERA.
Indians are Looking For Momentum
The Cleveland Indians are not playing great ball at the moment and they need to change that as they do not want to head into the postseason with negative momentum. They have a 14.5 lead in their division and they can’t hurt or help their seeding the rest of the way and that may have led to the mediocre play of late. They come in off a 3-1 road loss to the Rays as their offense just didn’t show up. Their lone run, and hit of the game came on Jose Ramirez’ 38th homer of the year. That is good enough for 3rd in the league. Carlos Carrasco took the loss after allowing three ERs on six hits and two walks in 7.0 innings of work. He is now 16-9 with a 3.43 ERA on the year. The Indians have averaged 5.46 rpg and have allowed 4.17 rpg here at home for the year.
Josh Tomlin will get the call for the Indians and he has gone 1-5 with a 6.63 ERA in 28 games (six starts) on the year, including 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA in 14 games (three starts) here at home. Tomlin is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his six games as a starter this year. In his career, he has gone 33-29 with a 4.67 ERA in 90 games (73 starts) here at Progressive Field and 14-4 with a 3.65 ERA in 30 games (22 starts) during Sept/ Oct, while against the Tigers he has gone 7-6 with a 4.87 ERA in 20 games (14 starts).
Cleveland has been very solid on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 3rd in the league in scoring, putting up 4.99 rpg, while also ranking 6th in hitting at .256 and 4th in homers with 196. On the mound, they have been above average as they come in ranked 11th in the league in ERA at 3.80, while also ranking 4th in WHIP at 1.20 and 5th in K’s with 1387. The pen for the Indians ranks 25th in the league with a 4.64 ERA.
- 46-14 in their last 60 home games vs. a team with a losing record
- 48-20 in their last 68 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400
- The Over is 10-3-2 in Indians last 15 home games vs. a left-handed starter
- The Over is 5-1-1 in Tomlin’s last 7 starts vs. Tigers
- 13-39 in their last 52 road games vs. a right-handed starter
- 11-27 in their last 38 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game
- The Over is 10-4-1 in their last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- The Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
The Cleveland Browns have very little to play for right now, but they would still like some momentum as they head to the postseason. They are the better overall team bn this one, but Josh Tomlin has not been the best of starters for them. Still, Matthew Boyd has struggled for the Tigers this year and the Indians have been a strong offensive team this year, especially at home. The Tigers have lost their last four games in a row and they are just 6-23 in their last 329 games here in Cleveland. Look for the Tribe to scalp the Tigers in this one.
Prediction: Cleveland -180
Full-Game Total Pick
The Tigers’ last 10 games have averaged 9.20 rpg and Boyd’s road starts have put up 9.13 rpg. Boyd has a 5.66 ERA on the road and the Indians have averaged 5.46 rpg here at home for the year. The Tigers have averaged just 3.72 rpg, but Josh Tomlin has been horrible this year as he has an 8.1o ERA in his six games as a starter this year, plus he has a 4.87 ERA in his career against the Tigers. This should be a high scoring game and the clincher is the fact that the Over is 9-3-1 in Detroit’s last 13 road games.
Prediction: Over 9
Full-Game Prop Bet
The Tigers have struggled on offense this year and especially of late, but everyone has hit Josh Tomlin this year and they should be able to as well. The Indians have been a very good offensive team at home and should have a field day with Boyd, who has a 5.66 ERA on the road. Let’s also not that the perns for both teams are pretty bad. Take the Over in this prop.
Prediction: R/H/E Over 28
First Five Innings Side Pick
Josh Tomlin has been horrible for the Indians this year, but I see him having a decent start. Matthew Boyd has been bad as well and is just 3-9 with a 5.66 ERA on the road so far. The Tribe has been playing mediocre ball of late, but they should have a good series against the Tigers and it begins with a fast start in this one.
Prediction: Cleveland -0.5
First Five Innings Total Bet
I expect Tomlin to have a decent start, but it won’t be a perfect start to this one. He has a 6.23 ERA here at home for the year and the Tigers should get at least two off of him early. The Tribe has been a very good offensive team this year and should get to Matthew Boyd, who has a 5.66 ERA on the road so far. Plenty of fireworks early in this one.
Prediction: Over 5
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
I like the Over in this game and I like the scoring to start in the first. both starters have not been good at all this year and the offenses should get off to a fast start for both teams. This one looks rather easy.
Prediction: R/H/E Over 3 In First Inning (-105)