Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#1967 Boston Red Sox vs.
#1968 Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 4:10pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Boston Red Sox and the Seattle Mariners conclude a three-game AL series Wednesday afternoon from T-Mobile Park. It will be the rookie Tanner Houck on the mound for the Red Sox. The Mariners reply with Marco Gonzales who is seeking his fourth straight win. The Red Sox lead the season series 3-2 entering Tuesday.

Houck Searching for First Win, Red Sox Falls Out of Wildcard

Tanner Houck will get the nod for the 14th time of the season to conclude the series. Houck couldn’t find a groove last time out, giving up four runs (three earned) in 3.2 innings against the White Sox, and was tagged with the loss to dip his record to 0-4. The young right-hander is having a very promising rookie season, filing a 3.54 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 53.1 innings of action. Houck has only conceded four home runs on the season.

The Red Sox have lost two straight series' against the first-place Rays and White Sox. As of Tuesday night, they are on the outside looking in the second Wildcard spot and are glad to return to Fenway Park after this game. Boston is dealing with COVID issues as Chris Sale and Matt Barnes remain on the COVID list.

Boston is glad to have Xander Bogaerts back in the lineup after missing the first 10 days of the month due to COVID protocol. The 28-year old shortstop has 21 homers along with 71 RBI’s and a .876 OPS. He has accrued five RBI’s in five games against Seattle including a home run on Monday.

The Red Sox are scoring an average of 5.03 runs per game, landing them fifth in the big leagues. The pitching staff has tallied a 4.32 team ERA, placing them 16th overall.

Gonzales Targets Fourth Consecutive Win

Marco Gonzales will make his 22nd start of the season. Gonzales was solid in his previous outing, conceding three runs (zero earned) in six innings against the Diamondbacks, leading to the win to lift his record to 8-5. The veteran southpaw has pitched like an ace in the second half and has improved his season ERA to 4.03 accompanied by a 1.23 WHIP in 118.1 innings of work. Gonzales has struggled against the Red Sox, yielding 13 runs (10 earned) in 15.1 career innings.

Seattle is still in contention in the Wildcard, trailing the Yankees by two games but they are running out of time. They lost two of three to the last-place Diamondbacks last weekend due to poor pitching stand at 6-4 in their last 10 games overall entering Tuesday’s action.

Ty France had a big series against Boston in June, registering 6 hits in 17 at-bats with three RBI’s and tallied a base hit on Monday. Overall, the 27-year old third baseman is slumping, hitting a poor .210 this month, and has 16 homers along with 61 RBI’s and a .798 OPS on the year.

The Mariners rank 22nd in the Majors with 4.26 runs per game. The pitching staff has recorded a 4.30 team ERA, positioning them 15th overall.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Red Sox should be able to generate offense against Marco Gonzales. He has been hit or miss and has surrendered a whopping seven home runs in his last four starts. It’s no surprise he owns a 5.39 FIP which is probably more reflective of his actual performance than his 4.03 ERA. The Red Sox are starting to get healthy as Xander Bogaerts is back in the lineup.

Furthermore, Red Sox’ starter Tanner Houck is keeping his team in games. The rookie right-hander has allowed three or earned fewer runs in each of his 13 outings this season including 11 starts. He has limited the Yankees to only two runs in 11.2 innings so I am confident they can contain the M’s.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox -120

Full-Game Total Pick

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This one should yield plenty of runs. Marco Gonzales is unreliable and has surrendered 13 runs (10 earned) in his 15.1 career innings against the Red Sox. Boston has averaged 5.3 runs in their last 10 games which is notable considering they played the Rays and White Sox in that span.

In addition, the Mariners should contribute to this figure. They have tallied 28 runs in five games against Boston this season entering Tuesday. The over is a convincing 4-0 in the Mariners’ last four home games and 6-0 in the Red Sox’s last six games in Seattle.

Prediction: Under 8.5

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The over on the Red Sox team total is worth a look. The Red Sox accrued 19 runs in three games against the Rays and 13 in three against the White Sox prior to this series which are two of the best pitching staffs in the Majors. Seattle has allowed an average of 5.8 runs in their last 10 games.

Prediction: Red Sox Team Total Over 4.5

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I expect early offense. Marco Gonzales is susceptible to early runs, posting a poor 5.14 ERA in his 21 innings of work in the opening frame this season. The Red Sox are threatening in the first inning where they have 104 runs on the season, marking their second-highest frame.

Prediction: A Run in the First Inning Yes
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Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis.