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Blue Jays vs. Twins,
9-17-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#925 Toronto
Blue Jays
#926 Minnesota
Twins

Sunday, September 17, 2017 at 2:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Toronto Blue Jays

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Minnesota Twins

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Toronto Blue Jays (69-79) vs. Minnesota Twins (77-70)

MLB Baseball:  Sunday, September 17th, 2:10 pm  EST

Joe Biagini (3-10, 5.07  ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (10-10, 4.97 ERA)

Line:  Minnesota -140/Toronto +130

Total: 9.5

The Blue Jays close out a four game series with the Twins in Minnesota on Sunday afternoon.  Before the season, this game figured to matter to one team and while that may still be true, it’s not the team that everyone expected.  The Blue Jays have struggled from the opening game of the season, and have never been in contention.  They have been last in the AL East for most of the year and still reside there.

The Twins, meanwhile, have surprised everyone and stayed in the wild card race all year long, currently up two games over the Angels for the final spot.  They did lose a big game on Friday to the Blue Jays, however, as Toronto won 4-3 and the Angels clawed a little closer to the Twins.

Biagini has been terrible

The title of this chapter might appear to be a little rude, but there’s no other way to put it.  Joe Biagini truly has been terrible.  He has made starts and made relief appearances, but hasn’t excelled in either.  Sunday will be his 42nd appearance of the season and his 16th start, and he comes in at 3-10 with an ERA of over 5.00.

If he has one thing going for him, it’s that he pitched one of his best games of the year in his latest.  He went eight innings, giving up six hits and only two earned runs against the Baltimore Orioles.  Despite pitching that well, he got a no decision and is stuck on three wins.

Gibson gets the call

Kyle Gibson has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, after getting off to a terrible start this year.  He’s won four of his last five starts, with the other being a n0-decison, and the Twins have won all five games.  It’s ironic, because he had been the Twins worst starting pitcher of the season up to that point.  Over his last five starts, he’s allowed only five earned runs.

His last start may have been the easiest win by any pitcher all season.  He went five innings without allowing a run in a 16-0 romp over the Padres.  He allowed only four hits, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out six batters.  He know looks for his fifth win in six starts in a huge, huge game.

MLB Trends:

The Toronto Blue Jays are:

  • 1-5 in Biagini’s last 6 starts with 4 days of rest.
  • 3-8 in their last 11 Sunday games.

The Minnesota Twins are:

  • 4-0 in Gibson’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • 5-0 in Gibson’s last 5 starts.
  • 27-10 in Gibson’s last 37 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

These games coming down the stretch are some of the most important games for the Twins in a decade.  I think they will respond well and Gibson has been great lately.  I think he wins again.

Pick: Minnesota

Big B

Known as Big B since his time at UCSB, Brian O’Sullivan is a novelist, screenwriter, & poker player who follows sports religiously. His betting style would be considered that of a contrarian, and he likes to bet against the general public. It seems to be working. You can find him at the coffee shops of Vegas, hanging with his family in SF, or at the bars of LA.

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