Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#961 Miami Marlins 8.5 vs.
#962 Arizona Diamondbacks -170
Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 9:40pm EDT
Written by Scott Reichel

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This Tuesday, there is a matchup between two National League teams. Specifically, the Miami Marlins and the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off at about 9:40 PM. This is game two of a three-game series, which will take place at Chase Field.

Pitching Matchup: The Marlins will hand the ball to Caleb Smith (8-10, 4.13 ERA) and the Diamondbacks will counter with Alex Young(7-4, 3.38 ERA).

Marlins Continue To Lose

The Miami Marlins have basically been eliminated from the playoffs when the season began in April. Miami was expected to be one of the worst teams in the league and has fulfilled that prophecy to a tee. However, I do not think anyone predicted that the Marlins would be as bad as they have been up to this point. Specifically, the Marlins were projected to win 63.5 games when preseason win totals were released. Now, the Marlins enter this game with just 52 wins and are on pace to win just 56 games this season. As a result, the Marlins have nothing to play for moving forward and one has to doubt that they will show any signs of life for the remainder of the season.

The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games and they have gone 8-22 in their last 30 games which is the tied for the worst record in the league during that time span. Yesterday, the Marlins scored five runs and still lost to the Diamondbacks on the road. Leading their attack was Jon Berti who had a two-run single in the seventh inning. This loss was not surprising for the Marlins as they have been awful on the road this season. Specifically, the Marlins are just 23-49 away from home.

Pitching for the Marlins in this game will be Caleb Smith and he has gone 8-10 with a 4.13 ERA in 25 starts this season, including a 2-6 record with 4.77 ERA in 12 appearances on the road. Righties are hitting .215 off of him this year, while lefties are hitting .197. He has also been underwhelming since the All-Star break as he is 4-6 with a 4.81 ERA.

The Marlins have been awful on offense so far as they come into this game ranked 30th in the league in scoring, putting up just 3.70 runs per game, while also recording the second-fewest hits in the league with 8.07 per game. On the mound, they have been slightly better as they come into this game ranked 20th in the league with a 4.71 ERA. The bullpen for the Marlins ranks 25th in the league with a 5.05 ERA.

Diamondbacks Hold Onto Playoff Hopes For Dear Life

The Arizona Diamondbacks are currently three games over .500 and are still technically alive in the NL Wild Card hunt. However, they are 5.5 games back of the Cubs for the second Wild Card spot and have three other teams ahead of them with just 11 games left to play on the schedule. However, the Diamondbacks have been resilient all season long and have exceeded expectations. Specifically, oddsmakers projected that the Diamondbacks would win 75.5 games this season and they have already won 77 games. Arizona has already overachieved according to those standards and perhaps they can continue to overachieve over the last two weeks.

The Diamondbacks have lost six of their last eight games and they have gone 15-15 in their last 30 games. Yesterday, they scored seven runs and beat the Marlins at home. Leading their attack was Jake Lamb who had a three-run double in the seventh inning. This win was not that surprising for the Diamondbacks as they have a 38-35 record at Chase Field this season.

Pitching for the Diamondbacks in this game will be Alex Young, who has gone 5-3 with a 4.04 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) on the year, including a 2-2 record with a 4.60 ERA in six appearances at home. Righties are hitting .250 off of him this year, while lefties are hitting .139. However, he has been average since the All-Star Break as he has a 5-4 record with a 4.02 ERA.

The Diamondbacks have been good on offense so far as they come into this game ranked 12th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.97 runs per game, while also ranking 17th in the league with 1.39 home runs per game. On the mound, they have been also been good so far as they come in ranked 11th in the league in ERA at 4.30. Meanwhile, the bullpen for the Diamondbacks ranks 11th in the league with a 4.31 ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

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As a whole, Miami is one of the worst teams in the league and is in the middle of another slump while Arizona is clinging to slim hopes of a postseason appearance. Even though that is not likely to occur, Arizona will do whatever is possible to keep that dream alive and beating Miami on Tuesday night is the first of many steps needed to do so. Give me the home team in this game by a decent margin.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Even though Arizona’s offense is solid, Miami has one of the worst offenses in the league and struggles to score more than three runs on any given day. Plus, Smith has a 3.47 ERA in night games this season while Young has a 3.00 ERA against the Marlins this season so I can see this game being pretty low-scoring. This game should end somewhere in the realm of 4-2 so I will take the under.

Prediction: Under 8.5
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Written By Scott Reichel

Scott Reichel is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate with an insane passion for sports. His commitment to endlessly researching statistics helps separate him from other handicappers with regard to MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL and NFL coverage. Scott also shares his passion for sports on StatSalt's YouTube page where he does a daily show called Scott's Selections.