Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#975 Seattle Mariners 9.5 vs.
#976 Pittsburgh Pirates -125
Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Seattle Mariners in an interleague clash Tuesday evening from PNC Park. The Mariners will send 27-year old left-hander Marco Gonzales to the hill, and the Pirates will give the start to 23-year old right-hander Mitch Keller. This marks the first series between these teams since 2016.

Gonzales Shines in 15th Victory of Season

Marco Gonzales will get the nod for the 32nd time of the year, hunting for win number 16. Gonzales was sharp last time out, holding the Reds to only two runs in seven innings, resulting in another win to improve his record to 15-11. The veteran left-hander is having a decent season, filing a 4.30 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 182 innings of action. This will mark his first career meeting against the Pirates. Gonzales has conceded four home runs over his last three starts.

Dee Gordon is consistently producing in a lineup filled with injuries. The 31-year old second baseman features a stellar .316 average on the month, and he has improved his season average to .278 accompanied with three homers and 33 RBI’s. Gordon has tallied 19 RBI’s in 31 career games against the Pirates.

The Mariners are playing the rest of the season with several notable injuries. Sluggers Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger, and Ryon Healy are all out for the year. They have fared well at the plate recently against the Reds and White Sox in their last two series’.

The Mariners are currently averaging 4.82 runs per game, ranking them at 16th in the Major Leagues. The Seattle pitching is carrying a 5.18 team ERA, pegging them down at 26th overall. The Mariners are 29-46 on the road this season.

Rookie Mitch Keller’s Woes Resume

Mitch Keller will make his 10th start of the season, aiming for his first win in over one month. Keller was rocked in his previous start, serving up five runs in five innings against the Giants, leading to another loss to dip his record to 1-4. The rookie right-hander is having a rough time in his first taste of the Majors, filing an abysmal 8.29 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP in 38 innings of work. Keller has interestingly only conceded six home runs.

The Pirates feature a few young hitters that are quietly posting outstanding seasons which bodes well for the future. This includes Bryan Reynolds who features a terrific .322 average with 16 homers and 67 RBI’s. The 24-year old rookie has slowed up slightly, logging a .258 average in September.

Pittsburgh returns home in this one after a tough seven-game road trip. They opened their trip by winning three of four in San Francisco, followed by an ugly three-game sweep at Wrigley Field this past weekend.

The Pirates are scoring an average of 4.77 runs per game, ranking them 17th overall. The Pittsburgh pitching staff enters this one with a 5.23 team ERA, positioning them 27th in the Major Leagues. The Pirates are 31-41 on their home field.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I am siding with the Mariners in this one. The Pirates pitching has been awful recently. They just surrendering a whopping 47 runs in three games against the Cubs this past week, and they have another young starter on the mound in Mitch Keller. The rookie right-hander is having a rough time in his first stint in the big leagues, logging an abysmal 8.29 ERA which includes 13 runs in his last three starts spread across only 10.2 innings.

Furthermore, the Mariners are having no problem scoring runs even with their injuries. They have plated at least five runs in four out of their last five games. Lastly, Mariners’ starter Marco Gonzales has been steady, allowing three or fewer earned runs in five out of his last seven starts.

Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Full-Game Total Pick

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I expect plenty of offense in this matchup. The Pirates pitching has been a disaster and this includes their bullpen. They now own a poor 4.94 bullpen ERA and as mentioned Keller continues to struggle on the mound, plus the over is a convincing 15-5-2 in the Pirates’ last 22 games overall.

In addition, the Pirates bats’ are producing. They plated 15 runs in three games at Wrigley last weekend, and their young hitters have been a bright spot in a rough season. The over is 6-1 in M’s starter Marco Gonzales’ last seven starts in the first game of a series, and that trend should prevail in this one.

Prediction: Over

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The under on the Pirates team total offered on PointsBet is a good play. Pittsburgh struggles in a big way against left-handed pitching, ranking second-last in the Majors with an awful .686 OPS against lefties, so I expect M’s starter Marco Gonzales to contain their bats. Also, consider Josh Bell and Starling Marte are questionable for this game.

Prediction: Pirates Team Total Under

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am opting with the over on the three-inning total. Marco Gonzales often gives up early runs as he owns a 4.71 ERA through the first three frames this season. The Pirates highest scoring span occurs in innings 1-3 with 255 runs. Seattle should have no problem striking early against Mitch Keller who owns a 13 ERA in the first inning.

Prediction: Three Inning Total Over
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.