Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#965 Toronto Blue Jays -130 vs.
#966 Baltimore Orioles 10.5
Tuesday, September 17, 2019 at 7:05pm EDT
Written by Chris Kubala



#965 Toronto
#966 Baltimore


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The bottom two teams in the AL East with nothing to play for but pride kick off a set down in Charm City. The Toronto Blue Jays are on the road as they open a three-game set with the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday night. Toronto took two of three at home from the Yankees as they recorded a 6-4 victory on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore wound up with a split of their four-game set on the road in the Motor City as they lost 5-2 to the Tigers on Monday afternoon. The Orioles own a 7-6 advantage in the season series: the teams split four meetings here in the most recent series August 1-4.

Toronto Blue Jays Looking for Road Success

Toronto took two of three from the Yankees as they prevailed in the finale of their set Sunday afternoon. The Blue Jays, who are out of the playoff picture, entered Monday fourth in the AL East, 38.5 games behind the Yankees. Toronto got two hits from Bo Bichette (run) and Randal Grichuk (two runs, four RBI) in the victory. Grichuk homered twice, giving him 28 on the season. Wilmer Font didn’t factor in the decision as he threw one inning: he allowed one run on one hit with no walks and one strikeout. T.J. Zeuch (1-0) earned the win as he threw 5.1 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits with three walks and five strikeouts. Ken Giles worked the ninth and picked up his 20th save of the season.

Trent Thornton gets the call to take the mound for his 30th appearance and 29th start of his rookie season for the Blue Jays here. He comes in 5-9 with a 5.04 ERA, a 1.457 WHIP, 56 walks and 134 strikeouts over 139.1 innings of action this season. Thornton earned the win in his last outing, which came in relief Wednesday at home against the Red Sox. He threw five shutout innings, allowing no hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in an 8-0 Toronto victory. Thornton is 0-1 with a 4.61 ERA, a 1.68 WHIP, four walks and 14 strikeouts over 13.2 innings in his last three starts. He is 2-1 with a 2.12 ERA, a 1.059 WHIP, three walks and 11 strikeouts over 17 innings in three career starts against the Orioles. Thornton is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA, a 1.364 WHIP, three walks and six strikeouts over 11 innings in two career starts at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Baltimore Orioles Try to Earn Home Victory in Series Opener

Baltimore wound up with a split of their four-game set with the Tigers as they came up on the short end Monday afternoon. The Orioles enter this one in the basement of the AL East and out of the playoff chase: they are 48.5 games behind the Yankees. Baltimore finished with nine hits in the game with Trey Mancini (run, RBI) the lone player with two: he hit his 33rd homer of the season in the defeat. John Means (10-11) took the loss on the mound as he allowed five runs on six hits with two walks and three strikeouts over 5.2 innings.

Dylan Bundy takes the ball for the Orioles and logs his 29th start of the season in this contest. He comes in 6-14 with a 4.99 ERA, a 1.363 WHIP, 51 walks and 148 strikeouts over 149.2 innings of work this season. Bundy took the loss in his last start, which came Thursday at home against the Dodgers. He threw 5.2 innings, allowing four runs (two earned) on six hits with two walks and six strikeouts in a game the Orioles dropped by a 4-2 count. Bundy is 0-1 with a 5.09 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, six walks and 17 strikeouts over 17.2 innings in his last three starts. He is 4-3 with a 3.24 ERA, a 1.063 WHIP, 12 walks and 61 strikeouts over 58.1 innings in 13 career appearances, nine starts, against the Blue Jays. Bundy is 19-25 with a 4.53 ERA, a 1.273 WHIP, 93 walks and 315 strikeouts over 341.2 innings in 69 career appearances, 57 starts, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

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Insiders Status:


This one is a matchup of two teams going nowhere down the stretch with little but pride on the line. The Blue Jays have some bright talent for the future but they still have to develop a solid enough rotation to work with if they hope to contend. Baltimore has been a train wreck all season and that’s something that has gone on for the last couple of years. Bundy has sputtered this year but at least he’s cut down on the number of homers he’s allowed this year. Still, it’s hard to trust the Orioles given they have more than 100 losses. Give Toronto a slight advantage in this contest.

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


Baltimore’s abysmal pitching staff is a major reason the team cracked the century mark for losses again this season. The Orioles lead the majors in long balls allowed: Bundy has improved in that stat, allowing 28 this season after leading the American League with 41 gopher balls in 2018. Toronto has been better offensively on the road this season, slashing .241/.307/.412 while averaging 4.41 runs per game as the visiting team. The Blue Jays have a good young nucleus but it doesn’t do much for them in the short term: can they earn a win on the road here?

The under is 4-0-1 in the Blue Jays’ last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30, 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games and 3-1-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Baltimore has seen the under go 5-0 in their last five on Tuesday, 3-0-1 in their last four against a right-handed starter, 4-1-1 in their last six overall, 4-1-1 in their last six on grass and 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The under is 41-16-2 in the last 59 meetings between the teams: with the lack of production from both teams at the plate, look for this one to be under the number.

Prediction: Under

Written By Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in-depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. Now he is writing for our team here at Winners @ Whiners. Chris keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college. He is also very knowledgeable in the NHL, the NBA, college basketball and MLB. If you want consistency, then be sure and check out Chris’ content daily.