Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#911 Cincinnati Reds 9.5 vs.
#912 Chicago Cubs -160
Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 8:05pm EDT
Written by Scott Reichel

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This Wednesday, there is an NL Central matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago Cubs. These teams will face off at about 8:05 PM. This is game three of a three-game series, which will take place at Wrigley Field.

Pitching Matchup: The Reds will hand the ball to Tyler Mahle(2-11, 5.11 ERA) and the Cubs will counter with Jon Lester(11-9, 4.36 ERA).

Reds Look To Win Series Against Division Rival

The Cincinnati Reds have been awful for the majority of the regular season. However, that has not stopped the Reds from being potential spoilers for other teams in the middle of the NL Wild Card race. Specifically, the Reds were able to virtually eliminate the Diamondbacks from the playoffs by taking two out of three games from them earlier this week. Afterwards, the Reds were given the tough task of going into Wrigley Field and trying to win a three-game series. After dropping the series opener, the Reds bounced back and took game two of this series. As a result, they could have a series impact on Chicago’s season if they are able to win this road game.

The Reds have won lost four of their last six games and they have gone 31-46 on the road this season which is the ninth-worst road record in the league. Yesterday, the Reds scored three runs in the first inning and held on for a road victory against the Cubs. Leading their offense was Aristides Aquino who had a two-run home run in the first inning. If Cincinnati plans on winning this series finale, look for Aquino to make an impact.

Pitching for the Reds in this game will be Tyler Mahle and he has gone 2-11 with a 5.11 ERA in 22 starts on the year, including an 0-8 record with a 5.45 ERA in 13 starts on the road. Righties are hitting .250 off of him this year, while lefties are hitting .294. He has also been below average since the All-Star Break as he has an 0-2 record along with a 7.61 ERA.

The Reds have been below average on offense so far as they come into this game ranked 22nd in the league in scoring, putting up 4.44 runs per game, while also recording the 23rd-most walks in the league with 2.93 walks per game. On the mound, they have been solid as they come into this game ranked 9th in the league in ERA at 4.20. The bullpen for the Reds ranks 15th in the league with a 4.47 ERA.

Cubs Look To Take Control Of Wild Card Race

The Chicago Cubs are currently tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the second NL Wild Card spot with just 11 games left in the regular season. As a result, Chicago is in serious danger of missing the postseason and will need to play extremely well over those 11 games to ensure that they get in. The main reason why the Cubs have been successful this season has been their unbelievable home record. Specifically, Chicago is 51-25 at home which is the fourth-best record in the league. However, Chicago also has the tenth-worst road record in the league which helps explain why this team has been unable to break away from other contenders. Luckily for the Cubs, this game is at home.

The Cubs have won five of their last six games and they have gone 17-13 in their last 30 games. Yesterday, they scored just two runs against the Reds and lost at home. Leading their attack was Kyle Schwarber who had both RBIs for the Cubs. However, Chicago has struggled against Cincinnati this season as the Cubs are just 8-10 against the Reds.

Pitching for the Cubs in this game will be Jon Lester, who has gone 13-10 with a 4.59 ERA in 29 starts on the year, including an 8-4 record with a 4.37 ERA in 15 home starts. Righties are hitting .281 off of him this year, while lefties are hitting .327. In addition, he has been okay since the All-Star Break with a 5-4 record along with a 5.83 ERA.

The Cubs have been very solid on offense so far as they come into this game ranked 10th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.11 runs per game, while also ranking 6th in the league with 1.62 home runs per game. On the mound, they have been great so far as they come in ranked 6th in the league in ERA at 4.04. In addition, the bullpen for the Cubs ranks 7th in the league with a 3.90 ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:

Rating:

The Cubs are a much better team than the Reds and I expect it to show on Wednesday. The Cubs have been an elite home team this season with a 51-25 record at Wrigley Field while the Reds are just 31-46 on the road. Plus, Mahle is 0-8 with a 5.45 ERA on the road this season so I think the Cubs should be able to score a lot of runs in this game. Give me the home team as a result.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:

Rating:

With Mahle and Lester on the mound, I have to lean to the over. Mahle has a 7.61 ERA since the All-Star Break while Lester has a 5.06 ERA against the Reds this season so I can see both of them struggling in this game. I expect this game to be pretty high scoring as a result as both teams should be able to score at least five runs. I think this game will end somewhere in the realm of 7-5. Give me the over as a result.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Scott Reichel

Scott Reichel is a University of Wisconsin-Madison graduate with an insane passion for sports. His commitment to endlessly researching statistics helps separate him from other handicappers with regard to MLB, NBA, NCAAB, NCAAF, NHL and NFL coverage. Scott also shares his passion for sports on StatSalt's YouTube page where he does a daily show called Scott's Selections.