Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#905 Miami Marlins 9 vs.
#906 Arizona Diamondbacks -150
Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 3:40pm EDT
Written by Ricky Dimon

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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins will conclude a three-game series when they meet one more time at Chase Field in Arizona on Wednesday afternoon.

Closing in on 100

The Marlins have lost nine of their last 11 contests and are two defeats away from the dubious achievement of losing 100 games for the third time in franchise history. Neil Walker belted a pinch-hit, two-run homer in the series opener–just his second blast since June 29. Outfielder Lewis Brunson went 2-for-4 on Monday after going 5-for-34 over his previous 12 contests.

Right-hander Sandy Alcantara (5-13, 3.93) takes the mound for Miami on Wednesday. It is a testament to how bad the Marlins are that Alcantara is sporting a solid 3.93 ERA and is still saddled with a horrendous 5-13 record. More of the same has continued of late, as the 24-year-old compiled a 3.03 ERA in August and so far a 1.96 ERA in September and during this stretch he is just 1-3 to show for his efforts. Alcantara most recently faced San Francisco last Friday, and it appropriately resulted in a 1-0 loss. He worked 7.0 innings of one-run baseball, scattering nine hits and no walks while striking out seven batters.

Lamb not chopped liver

The Diamondbacks remain alive in the National League wild-card race, but they need to string together some victories in a hurry. Their 7-5 win over Miami in the series opener, after all, was just their second in nine games. Arizona’s struggles have come at a bad time, as the club has fallen 5.5 games behind the Cubs for the NL’s second wild card with just 11 games remaining. Jake Lamb delivered a decisive three-run double in the seventh inning on Monday as part of his season-best four-RBI performance.

“It’s no secret how I’ve been playing,” Lamb noted, referencing a slump. “But I feel like I’ve done a pretty good job of coming to the yard every day, trying to get better and I just work, work, work. It’s nice to come through in that situation. I’ve always loved hitting in those situations.”

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Mike Leake (11-11, 4.59 ERA) will oppose Alcantara on Wednesday. The right-hander struggled in his first four starts with Arizona after being acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline, but he has since gotten it together. Leake has lowered his ERA with his new team from 8.02 to 4.75 over his four most recent outings. He is showcasing a 3.86 ERA through three September starts. Leake most recently went up against Cincinnati last Friday, allowing two runs on five hits and one walk while recording five strikeouts in 6.0 innings of 4-3 loss by the Diamondbacks.

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Leake boasts a 3.70 ERA this season compared to 5.59 on the road. Alcantara never gets much run support and he probably won’t get any on Wednesday, either. Arizona reliever Archie Bradley (back) was unavailable in the series opener but is expected back Tuesday. Miami is 14-39 in its last 53 against right-handed starters, 7-20 in its last 27 against starters with WHIPs over 1.30, 4-10 in Alcantara’s last 14 starts, 1-6 in his last seven road starts, and 0-5 in its last five at Arizona. The Diamondbacks are 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between the two teams. Go with Arizona, but don’t go crazy on the wager simply because Alcantara is on the mound for Miami.

Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

Full-Game Total Pick

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Alcantara is sporting a 2.00 ERA during the day compared to 4.76 at night. He also comes in with a 3.58 mark on the road as opposed to 4.23 at home. Miami’s ace surrendered just two runs in 6.0 innings during his only previous start against Arizona this season. Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed (finger) departed the series opener in the eighth inning after his throwing hand was struck by a grounder he was fielding and will be re-evaluated on Tuesday, according to manager Torey Lovullo. The under is 4-1 in the Marlins’ last five overall, 4-1 in their last five against the National League West, 4-1-1 in Alcantara’s last six starts, and 3-0-2 in his last five road starts. It is also 7-2-1 in the Diamondbacks’ last 10 overall, 5-1 in their last six at home, and 4-1 in Leake’s last five starts. Look for this one to stay under the total.

Prediction: Under
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Written By Ricky Dimon

A 2006 graduate of Davidson College, Ricky is based in Atlanta, Georgia. Prior to joining the Winners & Whiners Staff, he worked with various websites in the sports handicapping industry and is generally a fan of going with the hot hand while in most cases showing a willingness to take favorites and give the points. Beyond the four major sports, Ricky is an avid tennis fan—and writer—and covers the ATP Tour on a daily basis.