Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#907 Philadelphia Phillies 10 vs.
#908 Atlanta Braves -150
Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 7:20pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

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#907 Philadelphia
#908 Atlanta
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The Philadelphia Phillies might not be headed to the postseason, but they can still stand to build some late-season confidence with a series win over the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves.

The Phillies are 4.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Philadelphia used a five-run fourth inning to battle back from an early 2-0 deficit in the series opener on Tuesday. Can the Phillies steal another game on the road at SunTrust Park on Wednesday evening?

Can Eflin reverse season-long struggles versus Atlanta?

Right-hander Zach Eflin will toe the rubber for the Phillies in the second game of their series against the Braves. The 25-year-old has battled through a difficult season, going 8-12 with a 4.20 ERA, but he seems to have found his 2018 form after a short stint in the bullpen. Eflin has allowed three runs or less in each of his last five starts, which included a run of back-to-back quality outings. However, the Braves got to him last time out, as catcher Tyler Flowers ended his night early with a three-run blast in the fourth inning.

Eflin has had a tough time versus the Braves in 2019, going 0-3 with an unsightly 11.57 ERA in three starts against Atlanta. He completed less than four innings on all three occasions, but he is 2-3 with a career 4.45 ERA in six career starts versus the Braves. According to Baseball Savant, current Braves are batting .315 in 102 plate appearances off the Phillies’ right-hander heading into Wednesday’s contest.

Teheran hopes for bounce back outing versus Phillies

The Braves are just 5-5 in their last 10 games and will need to finish the month strong with the postseason just two weeks away. No matter what happens in October though, Atlanta must find a way to resign veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson at the trade deadline. The 33-year-old has posted a healthy 5.8 WAR to go along with 37 home runs and 88 RBIs to go along with his usual stellar defense at the hot corner this season. He’s also provided some much-needed protection for slugger Freddie Freeman and brings some postseason experience to the club.

Atlanta will send veteran right-hander Julio Teheran to the hill at SunTrust Park on Wednesday night. The 28-year-old will be in search of a bounce back outing after allowing five runs in four frames last time out versus the Phillies. Stil, the Braves’ right-hander has enjoyed solid season in Atlanta, anchoring the rotation by posting a 2.94 ERA over his last 24 starts. He’s allowed two runs or less 19 times during that span, while completing six innings or more 11 times during that span.

Teheran has also had a tough time versus the Phillies in 2019, going 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts. He is 9-8 with a 3.92 ERA in 25 career games (24 starts) versus the Phillies. Current Phillies are batting .266 in 330 plate appearances off the Braves’ veteran heading into this matchup.

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Full-Game Side Bet

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These two teams just split a four-game series last week. The Phillies stole Game 1 on Tuesday with a big inning but were shut out for the other eight frames. Meanwhile, Atlanta is fresh off a big series win over the Nationals that cemented their NL East division title and you have to expect them to bounce back after losing two straight games versus division rivals. Eflin hasn’t been able to make it out of the fourth inning in three starts versus Atlanta this year. Take the Braves on the run line at home versus the Phillies on Wednesday. 

Prediction: Atlanta Braves -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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These two teams have gone over the projected total in each of Teheran’s last four starts against the Phillies and the over is 6-1-1 in their last eight meetings overall. Neither have these pitchers has been able to have any sort of success against the opposition heading into this game. Teheran is 0-2 with an 8.00 ERA in two starts versus Philadelphia, while Eflin is 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA in three starts versus the Braves. Take this game to go over the projected total on Wednesday evening.

Prediction: Over 10
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Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.