Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#909 San Diego Padres 8.5 vs.
#910 Milwaukee Brewers -150
Wednesday, September 18, 2019 at 7:40pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres in the third game of a four-game set Wednesday night from Miller Park. The Padres will send 27-year old right-hander Dinelson Lamet to the hill, and the Brewers will give the starting nod to 26-year old right-hander Adrian Houser. The Padres lead the season series 3-2.

Lamet Charged with Third Straight Loss

Dinelson Lamet will make his 13th start of the season, looking to avoid his fourth straight defeat. Lamet conceded three runs in five innings against the Cubs last time out, resulting in another loss to plummet his record to 2-5. The young right-hander is pitching reasonably well, registering a 4.06 ERA and a solid 1.26 WHIP in 62 innings of work. Lamet held the Brewers to three runs in six innings in his only career meeting back in his 2017 rookie season.

Padres’ veteran Wil Myers is having a big month at the plate after struggling most of the season. The 28-year old centerfielder features a remarkable .392 average with 12 RBI’s in September, and he owns a .244 average with 18 home runs and 53 RBI’s on the season. Myers is 0 for 9 against the Brewers this season.

The Padres showed their potential several times this season, however, another losing season is not ideal. San Diego does have plenty of pieces to build around. They stand at 0-4 on their current road trip entering Tuesday’s action.

The Padres are scoring an average of 4.37 runs per game, ranking them 25th in the Major Leagues. The San Diego pitching staff holds a mediocre 4.64 team ERA, positioning them 19th overall. The Padres are 33-42 away from home.

Houser Eyes First Win In Nearly One Month

The Brewers will have Adrian Houser on the mound for the 33rd time of the campaign in this one. Houser didn’t have his best stuff in his previous start, squandering four runs in three frames against the Cardinals, leading to the defeat to even his record to 4-4. The third-year right-hander hasn’t been sharp in two straight starts, although overall he is having a strong year, filing a 3.84 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP in 98.1 innings of action. Houser has logged 3.1 shutout inning against the Padres in his lone career meeting earlier this season.

Mike Moustakas has stepped up big in the stretch run, driving in eight runs along with three big homers in his last six games. The veteran third baseman is having a solid season, recording a .261 average with 34 big flys and 84 RBI’s. Moustakas is 1 for 7 against the Padres pitching this season.

The Brewers have displayed great determination in their playoff hunt, winning 10 out of their last 11 games which included a big series win in St. Louis this past weekend. They are winning these games without star hitter Christian Yelich who is out for the rest of the season. Milwaukee is only one game out of a Wildcard position.

The Brewers are swinging the bats well, and they rank 20th in the Major Leagues with an average of 4.71 runs per game. The Milwaukee pitching staff is carrying a 4.57 team ERA, placing them 17th in the Majors. The Brew Crew feature a 44-31 record at Miller Park.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I like the Brewers in this one. Every game is like a playoff game for the Brewers right now as they are only one game out in the Wildcard hunt. They are playing with a ton of emotion right now, and they have won 10 out of their last 11 games entering Tuesday.

Furthermore, the Padres are scuffling as their season winds down, dropping five consecutive games due primarily to poor pitching. Brewers’ starter Adrian Houser is exceptionally sharp at Miller Park where he features a 3.12 ERA. The Brewers pitching has been tremendous down the final stretch and they should neutralize the Padres in this one.

Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers

Full-Game Total Pick

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I am opting with the under in this matchup. Adrian Houser is quietly pitching well, allowing three or fewer runs in six out of his last seven outings, and the under is a convincing 6-1 in his last seven home starts, and 16-7-1 in Milwaukee’s last 24 games overall.

In addition, Padres’ starter Dinelson Lamet containing his opponents. He posted a solid 3.54 ERA last month, and he has conceded four runs in 11 innings this month, plus the under is 4-0-1 in his last five starts against a team with a winning record.

Prediction: Under

Full-Game Prop Bet

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The Brewers pitching should come up big again and the under on the Padres’ team total which can be found on PointsBet is a strong play. The Brewers have allowed an average of only 3.9 runs in their last ten games overall, and they have limited the Padres to only two runs through the first two games of this series. San Diego is playing without slugger Fernando Tatis Jr. and I don’t see a whole lot of offense from them in this one.

Prediction: Padres Team Total Under

First Five Innings Prop Prediction

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I am sticking with the under on the three-inning total. Dinelson Lamet is effective in the first three innings where he owns a 3.25 ERA. The Padres don’t score a ton of runs in the first third of a game so I am not concerned with Adrian Houser’s 4.37 ERA in the first three frames.

Prediction: Three Inning Total Under
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Written By Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and has brought his talents to us here at Winners and Whiners. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.