Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2907 Philadelphia Phillies vs.
#2908 New York Mets
Saturday, September 18, 2021 at 7:15pm EDT
Written by Blake V.

Philadelphia will play the second game of a critical three-game series at Citi Field on Saturday night. The Phillies are coming into the series off a pair of wins over the Cubs, but they are still several games out of a playoff spot. New York was swept by St. Louis earlier this week, which could be the final blow to the Mets playoff hopes. This story was published prior to Friday night’s series-opener.

Harper trying to lead team to playoffs

Philadelphia has to find a way to build on its momentum from earlier in the week. The Phillies went through a disastrous patch last week, losing six games in a seven-game stretch. They were able to finally recover with a pair of wins over the Cubs, but the damage has been done. Philadelphia enters Friday’s slate trailing Atlanta by three games in the National League East. It also has a shot at the final NL Wild Card spot, where it is 2.5 games back of St. Louis. There are four teams competing for that one spot, though. Philadelphia’s offense ranks No. 13 with a team batting average of .242.

Shortstop Jean Segura leads the way with 138 hits and a .298 average. All-Star right fielder Bryce Harper is having another solid campaign, tallying 137 hits. He has hit a team-best 33 home runs and batting at a .314 clip. They will be facing a New York pitching staff that is No. 8 with a team ERA of 3.86. Right-handed pitcher Aaron Nola will make the start for Philadelphia on Saturday night. He struck out 10 batters in a no-decision against Colorado in his last appearance. Nola has not picked up a win in his last nine starts and has failed to complete six innings in seven of those games. He brings a 4.58 ERA overall into this outing.

Mets needing strong finish to season

New York will be looking to bounce back and keep its season alive this weekend. The Mets no longer have any room for error after being swept by St. Louis earlier this week. They have not picked up consecutive wins since Sept. 4, so the season has been going downhill throughout the month. New York is 5.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East standings and is five games back of the second NL Wild Card spot. The Mets would need a near-perfect finish to the regular season if they want to get into the playoff race. Their offense ranks No. 21 in the MLB with a team batting average of .239.

First baseman Pete Alonso leads the offense with 132 hits, including a team-best 33 home runs. He has also struck out 118 times, though, which has led to a .259 batting average. Second baseman Jonathan Villar has 106 hits, while first baseman Dominic Smith has added 104 base knocks. They are going up against a Philadelphia pitching staff that is No. 20 with a team ERA of 4.49. Right-handed pitcher Carlos Carrasco will start for New York on Saturday. He allowed two runs across five innings against the Yankees in his last outing. Carrasco has allowed three or fewer runs in five straight starts, posting a 3.62 ERA during that 27.1-inning stretch.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


I do not trust Philadelphia right now, so I have no interest in backing them as a favorite in an unfavorable pitching matchup. The Phillies have not been able to come through in the clutch this year, which is why they are on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned. New York has not been able to overcome some injury issues, but it has one of its solid starters on the mound. Carrasco has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last five starts. Nola, on the other hand, has not won a game in his last nine outings. I will gladly back the Mets as home underdogs.

Prediction: New York -105

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


This is one of the lowest totals on the board, which does not make much sense to me. Nola’s numbers are below average over the last few months and New York’s offense is good enough to take advantage. Alonso’s home run power can create several runs in one swing. Harper can generate the same offense for Philadelphia. Carrasco has been a solid starter, but he is not shutting teams out by any stretch. Both of these teams should be locked in at the plate with everything that is on the line. This total is suggesting a matchup between two aces, which is not the case.

Prediction: Over 7.5

Written By Blake Von Hagen , "Blake V."

Blake is a lifelong sports fan and hoops junkie. Prior to joining our team at Winners & Whiners and StatSalt, Blake worked for several newspapers and websites. He enjoys combining his beat writing expertise with the knack for finding the winning edge in a matchup. Blake is also an avid sports being expert and you would not be disappointed in following him on a daily basis. Remember, it’s a marathon, not a sprint.