Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#957 Los Angeles Angels 9 vs.
#958 New York Yankees -260
Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 6:35pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul



#957 Los Angeles
#958 New York


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The Los Angeles Angels will head to the Bronx on Thursday evening for the finale game of their three-game series versus the New York Yankees.

The Angels evened up the series at one game apiece on Wednesday evening, taking Game 2 3-2 on Wednesday night. Slugger Giancarlo Stanton returned to the lineup for the Yankees who are stuck on 99 wins. Stanton roped a double in his first at-bat and his second was blistered 114.3 miles per hour. Can New York come out on top in this Amercian League showdown on Thursday night?

Angels waste another historic season from Trout

Yankees fans will be a little disappointed this weekend, as they won’t get a chance to see Angels’ outfielder Mike Trout, who is expected to have season-ending surgery on his foot on Friday. Now that his year has ended, we can look back and admire another season to remember for the Angels’ slugger, who continues to take his rightful seat among the all-time greats. Trout hit .291/.438/.645 with a career-high 45 home runs, adding 104 RBIs and 110 runs scored in 134 games. His 8.3 WAR is still tied for the MLB-lead, making him a realistic candidate for the AL MVP trophy once again this season. However, the organization has seemingly squandered his prime seasons leaving many to wonder if Trout will get make it to a World Series in his career? Trout is already the seventh-most valuable outfielder in MLB history and no players have accrued a higher WAR through his age-27 season than the Angels’ slugger. He is also fourth all-time with 8+ WAR seasons without a postseason appearance.

Los Angeles is scheduled to hand the ball to lefty Andrew Heaney for the series finale at Yankee Stadium on Thursday night. The Angels’ left-hander is 4-5 with a 4.76 ERA in 16 starts during what has turned out to be an injury-shortened season. There have been some positives for Heaney, who continued to strikeout batters at a healthy rate, while cutting his walk-rate down to just 6.19 percent. His current 21.6 percent K–BB% represents a career-high and he’s fanned a career-best 28.5 percent of the batters he’s faced in 2019. However, Heaney has struggled to keep the ball in the park, surrendering 17 home runs in 85 innings, including three in his last start versus the Tampa Bay Rays. He gave up six runs on 10 hits in 3 ⅓ frames to lose for the second time in this last three outings and he’s allowed at least four runs in each of his last three starts.

Heaney will have happy to face the Yankees, who he’s had considerable success against in three career starts. The 28-year-old is 1-0 with a 1.47 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP in those matchups to go along with 21 strikeouts in 18 ⅓ innings of work. He allowed just one run in 6 ⅓ frames in his only career outing at Yankee Stadium. According to Baseball Savant, current Yankees are batting .194 in 53 plate appearances off the Halos’ starter heading into Thursday’s contest.

Stanton returns in Yankees’ Game 2 win over L.A.

New York is scheduled to hand the ball to right-handed ace Masahiro Tanaka, who has anchored the rotation for the better part of the season. The 30-year-old veteran has allowed four runs on eight hits in each of his last two starts lasting a combined nine innings during that span. He lasted five innings last time out versus the Toronto Blue Jays, but escaped with a no-decision on both occasions. Tanaka enters with a 10-8 overall record to go along with a 4.60 ERA in 30 starts this season and he has posted a 5.78 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star Break.

The Yankees’ ace has faced the Angels once already this season, taking a loss after allowing six runs (five earned) in 5 ⅔ innings of work. In his previous five starts versus the Halos, Tanaka went 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA.

Tanaka was moved up a day for Thursday’s outing, giving fellow starter J.A. Happ another day to recover from a biceps injury. He last started on Friday, he had already had the benefit of an extra day between his outings.

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The Angels have traditionally struggled in this series, but there’s definitely some value in taking the Halos here. Heaney’s career numbers versus the Yankees are an absolute bargain at this price (+260) and they’ve shown some fight so far without Trout in the lineup.  Tanaka has struggled over his previous two outings, allowing eight runs in his previous nine innings of work and Stanton’s recent inclusion into the lineup has caused some chaos for New York. Take the Angels to come out on top in their final game on the road at Yankee Stadium on Thursday evening.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels +260

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Heaney has allowed a 1.47 ERA in three career starts against the Yankees and he posted a quality start in his only career outing in the Bronx. Meanwhile, Tanaka has had a considerable amount of success against the Angels over the past three seasons as well, so I could see this being another low-scoring affair between these two teams. Current Angels are batting .233 in 97 plate appearances off of Tanaka and Heaney is coming off a month in August during which he posted a 1.82 ERA in four starts. Take this game to stay under the projected total on Thursday night.

Prediction: Under 10.5

Written By Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. And has now joined our team here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.