Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#953 San Diego Padres 8 vs.
#954 Milwaukee Brewers -175
Thursday, September 19, 2019 at 4:10pm EDT
Written by David Hess



#953 San Diego
#954 Milwaukee


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The National League West meets the National League Central on Thursday afternoon as the San Diego Padres invade Miller Park in Wisconsin, Milwaukee to rumble with the Milwaukee Brewers. This will be game four of a four-game series. The Brewers have taken two of the first three games of this series.

Pitching Matchup: Getting the nod for the Padres will be Joey Lucchesi (10-8, 4.22 ERA) and the Brewers will counter with Jordan Lyles (11-8, 4.25 ERA).

Padres Are Trying To Play Spoiler

The San Diego Padres will not be in the postseason this year, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t stand in the way of teams that are still in the mix. The Brewers are in the mix and they took the first two games of this series, but the Padres were able to respond by taking game three by a score of 2-1. They will now be looking to gain a split of this series and deal a blow to the Brewers’ chances of making the postseason. The Padres are still having issues at the plate and they have now averaged just 2.64 rpg in their last 11 games that were not played at Coors Field. They have scored just four total runs through the first three games in this series.

Seth Mejias-Brean played in just his 7th MLB game and he ripped his first homer in the third inning of their win on Wednesday night. It was a two-run shot and all the offense the Padres needed to win the game. Dinelson Lamet shut down the Brewers as he allowed just one ER on three hits and three walks while striking out 14 in 6.0 innings of work to move to 3-5 with a 3.84 ERA on the year. Kirby Yates picked up his 41st save. The Padres are now at 34-43 on the year.

Getting the nod for the Padres will be Joey Lucchesi and he has gone 10-8 with a 4.22 ERA in 28 starts on the year, including 5-1 with a 4.33 ERA in 10 starts in the daytime and 2-5 with a 6.19 ERA in 13 starts on the road. In his career, he has gone 5-9 with a 5.35 ERA in 23 road starts and 2-3 with a 6.55 ERA in seven starts during Sept/ Oct, plus 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 22 starts in the daytime. Lucchesi has gone 1-0 with a 2.31 ERA in two career starts against the Brewers. Both starts came at Petco.

The Padres have been poor on offense so far as they come in ranked 26th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.33 rpg, while also ranking 27th in hitting at .241 and 17th in homers with 211. On the mound, they have been below average as they rank 18th in the league in ERA at 4.61, while also ranking 10th in WHIP at 1.30 and 11th in K’s with 1377. Their pen ranks 19th in ERA at 4.57.

Brewers Suffer Bad Loss In Game Two

The Milwaukee Brewers are in a fight for a spot in the National League playoffs, so they can’t afford to take home losses against a team that has been out of the playoff race for quite some time now. The Brewers had been white-hot of late as they had won their last four games in a row and 11 of their last 12. The Brewers are still tied with the Cubs for the 2nd wildcard slot in the National League, but a win in the game would have put them alone in the 2nd spot. The Pitching has been completely dominant for the Brewers of late as they have allowed just 48 total runs in their last 13 games, with 16 of those runs coming in two games.

The offense had averaged 5.00 rpg in their previous 10 games prior to Wednesday, but they were able to score just the one run in the 2-1 loss. Their lone run came on rookie Keston Hiura’s 17th round-tripper of the year. Taking the loss was Adrian Houser, who allowed just two ERs on three hits and no walks while striking out five in 5.0 innings of work. He is now 6-7 with a 3.83 ERA on the year. After this game, the Brewers have three at home against the Pirates, followed by three at Cincinnati and three at Colorado to end the season. The Brewers are now at 45-32 here at home for the year.

Toeing the lab for the Brewers will be Jordan Lyles and he has gone 11-8 with a 4.25 ERA in 26 starts on the year, including 3-4 with a 6.29 ERA in nine starts in the daytime and 5-5 with a 4.09 ERA in 13 starts at home. In his career, he has gone 6-4 with a 3.01 ERA in 17 games (10 starts) here at Miller Park and 8-11 with a 5.97 ERA in 43 games (22 starts) during Sept/ Oct, plus 9-25 with a 5.66 ERA in 84 games (47 starts) in the daytime. Lyles has gone 3-4 with a 5.09 ERA in 13 games (nine starts) against the Padres in his career.

The Brewers have been a below-average offensive team so far as they rank 17th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.67 rpg, while also ranking 20th in hitting at .246 and 8th in homers with 236. On the mound, they have been below average as they come in ranked 17th in the league in ERA at 4.53 while also ranking 16th in WHIP at 1.34 and 10th in K’s with 1397. The pen for the Brewers comes in ranked 17th in the league with a 4.48 ERA.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Brewers need this game badly as they are fighting for a playoff spot. They are 11-2 over their last 13 games, while the Padres have gone just 1-6 in their first seven games of this road trip. San Diego pulled the upset in game three of this series, but they are still just 34-43 on the road and their offense has sputtered, scoring just four runs through the first three games in this series. Joey Lucchesi has pitched very well at home this year, but on the road, he has gone 2-5 with a 6.19 ERA. Jordan Lyles has been hot of late as he has gone 4-0 with a slim 1.61 ERA in his last five starts. Lyles will keep the Padre offense grounded, while his own offense wakes back up and the Brewers walk away with a win. Take Milwaukee in this one.

Prediction: Milwaukee -161

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The first three games of this series have averaged 4.33 rpg and I will look for another low scoring contest in this one. I am fully aware that Lucchesi has a 6.19 ERA on the road and Lyles has a 6.29 ERA in the daytime, but still, the offenses have not been clicking of late and that will keep the scoring down. The Padres have averaged just 2.64 rpg in their last 11 games that have not been played at Coors Field and Lyles comes in with a 1.61 ERA over his last five starts. The Brewers are still without Christian Yelich and they have scored just eight total runs through the first three games of this series. Lucchesi’s last start was at Colorado and 18 runs were scored in that game, but 17 total runs were scored in his previous four starts. He had a 1.57 ERA in those previous four starts. Lyles’ last five starts have averaged just 7.2 rpg and the Under is now 5-1 the last six games in this series. Take the Under in this one.

Prediction: Under 8

Written By David Hess

David has always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so he combined the two to become a handicapper and a writer for us here at Winners & Whiners, along with StatSalt. All the information that David puts in his articles are well-researched and his predictions are well-thought out. He is a big fan of all the major pro sports and the colleges making David a very versatile and a constantly winning handicapper. David has been writing for the past 10 years and has been handicapping for over 20 years. He will help you beat the Man, so be sure and follow along.