Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4963 Philadelphia Phillies vs.
#4964 New York Mets
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 7:08pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

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Philadelphia Phillies (75-72) vs. New York Mets (72-76)

It is the final contest of a three-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets on Sunday evening. This is a critical series for both teams as both the Phillies and Mets are trying to earn that final wildcard spot. Philadelphia is 2.5 games out while New York is 6.0 behind. The Phillies defeated New York on Friday, 4-3. These teams play on Saturday, but this preview was written prior to the conclusion of that contest.

The victory on Friday gave Philadelphia five straight victories over New York. They are now 8-7 against the Mets this season.

Phillies Extend Winning Streak to Three

With Friday night’s victory, Philadelphia has now won three straight games. This winning streak comes at just the right time, as Philadelphia had been struggling through the early part of September, going 4-8 through the first 12 games. The Phillies nearly lost this game, giving up two runs to the Mets in the bottom of the eighth before hanging on.

Philadelphia is 11th in runs per game (4.63) and 19th in runs allowed per contest at 4.71. They are 15th in run differential at -0.08. The lineup has been solid, 13th in batting average (.241) and 15th in home runs per game (1.23).

Philadelphia will start right-hander Kyle Gibson. Gibson is 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA in 27 starts and one relief appearance. He has struggled in September, giving up 15 earned runs in 15 innings pitched. That started with a shelling against Miami on September 3 when he gave up eight runs in 5.1 innings. In his last start against the Cubs, Gibson allowed four runs in five innings.

Philadelphia is led by Bryce Harper with 33 homers and 77 RBI to go along with a .313 batting average. The Phillies are hitting .245 and averaging 4.72 runs per nine innings against left-handers.

Mets Woes Continue with Loss on Friday

While Philadelphia looks like they have righted their ship, the Mets continue to struggle, losing four straight games. It has been a struggling pitching staff that has given up 29 runs in that stretch and they have yielded 43 runs over their last six games.

New York is 27th in runs per game (3.96) and sixth in runs allowed per contest (4.09). The team is 16th in run differential at -0.13. The Mets are 21st in team batting average (.239) and 24th in homeruns per game (1.10).

The Mets will start left-hander Rich Hill. Hill is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA in 28 starts and one relief appearance. He began the season with Tampa Bay, but has now made 10 starts in a Mets uniform, going 0-3 with a 3.88 ERA. Hill has allowed four runs in 17.0 innings in September.

The Mets are led by Pete Alonso with 33 homers and 87 runs driven in. He is one of seven players on this team with at least 10 homeruns. New York is hitting .234 and averaging 4.23 runs per nine innings against right-handers.

Best Bets for this Game

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The pitching matchup clearly gives the Mets the edge here, as Hill has been significantly better than Gibson of late. In fact, it is not even a contest when you look solely at this matchup.

However, the Mets are struggling. When they do score runs, the starting pitcher struggles and when the starter is rolling, the hitting abandons them. It has made for a difficult September that has seen the team go 7-9. With the team struggling against Philadelphia of late, you have to like the Phillies' chances here.

Prediction: Take the Philadelphia Phillies

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Oddsmakers seem to think this is going to be some type of pitching duel. That is not going to be the case. I will admit that the trends favor that. These teams have gone under in the last five meetings, including six of the last seven in New York. However, Philadelphia has gone over in 11 of their last 17 games against a left-handed starter and New York has gone over in six of their last eight games at home.

For Philadelphia to win this game, they are going to have to score runs. That is something they are quite capable of doing. They scored 17 against Chicago on Thursday, this a night after scoring six.

Pick Philadelphia to win, 7-5.

Prediction: Go over 8.0 (-115)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.