Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#921 Baltimore Orioles vs.
#922 Houston Astros
Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 8:10pm EDT
Written by Mark Ruelle

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The Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros continue their three-game series in Houston on Tuesday night. The Orioles have already clinched a playoff spot and are closing in on the AL East title while the Astros are once again on top in the AL West as they try to clinch yet another division crown and defend their World Series title. The pitching matchup on Tuesday night will feature a pair of right-handers as the Orioles' Kyle Gibson (14-9, 4.98) takes on the Astros' righty Hunter Brown (11-11, 4.61). The first pitch is scheduled for 8:10 PM EDT.

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Back on Top

The Baltimore Orioles looked like they were on the cusp of giving up their AL East Division lead after dropping four straight games and five out of six. The second-place Rays won the first two games of their weekend series and another win would have made things very interesting. Instead, as they have all season, the Orioles rebounded and closed the series with two straight wins. The Orioles came into the series opener with the Astros up three games in the loss column to the Rays. In Monday night's opener, Cedric Mullins was the hero for the second time in a row after hitting a three-run home run in the top of the ninth-inning to bring the Orioles back from a 7-5 deficit to get the win.

The Orioles will hand the ball to 14-game winner Gibson in game two of this series. Gibson is 14-8 on the season in 30 starts this season including 16 quality starts. He has allowed 181 hits in 175.1 innings pitched with an ERA of 4.98. He has a K/9 rate of 7.4 and his WHIP is 1.32. Gibson is 7-3 in 17 starts on the road this season with an ERA of 4.74. In his last five starts, he is 2-2 with an ERA of 5.40 while allowing 33 hits in 30 innings and striking out 23.


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Astros Looking to Take Flight

The Houston Astros came into this series with Baltimore after nearly getting swept by the Royals over the weekend. Kansas City, in last place in the AL Central Division, won each of the first two games of the series and went for the sweep on Sunday afternoon. The Astros salvaged a win in the series thanks to seven strong innings from Framber Valdez in a 7-1 victory. With the win, the Astros actually gained a game on both the Rangers and Mariners, who were both swept over the weekend by the Guardians and Dodgers respectively. On Monday night in the series opener with Baltimore, the Astros bullpen, specifically closer Ryan Pressley, coughed up a two-run lead in the 9th and turned a 7-5 lead into an 8-7 loss.

The Astros will turn to right-hander Hunter Brown on Tuesday night as the series continues with the Orioles. Brown is 11-11 in 28 appearances including 27 starts. Brown has 11 quality starts this season while allowing 145 hits in 146.1 innings pitched. Brown has an ERA of 4.61 to go along with a K/9 rate of 10.4 and a WHIP of 1.34. Brown is 4-7 in 13 starts this season at home with an ERA of 5.60. Against the Orioles, he is 0-1 with an ERA of 7.50 in one start. He allowed eight hits in six innings and struck out seven batters. In his last five starts, Brown is 2-3 with a 7.29 ERA. He has allowed 23 hits in 21 innings pitched with 31 strikeouts.


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Full-Game Side Bet

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The Orioles still have not clinched anything in the AL East and need to pick up winnable games like this down the stretch. Astros' starter Brown has struggled over his last five starts with an ERA over seven. He has also been less than effective at home this season with a 4-7 record and an ERA close to six. Brown was also banged up in his one start against the Orioles this season allowing eight hits and five runs including two home runs. The Orioles' Gibson has an ERA close to five but he also has 16 quality starts and a team-leading 14 wins. I expect Gibson to hang in this game and get the Orioles to the back end of their bullpen to put this game away.

Take Baltimore with the money line.

Prediction: Baltimore ML +114

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The Astros are fifth in baseball in runs per game while the Orioles clock in at sixth. The Astros have also gone over the total in seven of their last 12 games. The Astros have also gone over the total in eight of Brown's last nine starts. In addition, the Orioles have gone over the total in seven of their last 12 games. Further, the Orioles have gone over the total in three of Gibson's last five starts this season. Expect this game to continue that trend for both teams and both pitchers.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over 9

Written By Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.

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