Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#919 Boston Red Sox vs.
#920 Texas Rangers
Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 8:05pm EDT
Written by Mark Ruelle

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The Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers continue their three-game series in Arlington on Tuesday night. The Red Sox have virtually been eliminated from playoff contention and are currently in last place in the AL East Division. The Rangers are in a three-way battle for the final two playoff spots in the American League and are also within shouting distance of first-place Houston in the AL West Division. The pitching matchup on Tuesday night will be right-hander Tanner Houck (5-9, 4.94) of the Red Sox taking on Rangers' righty Nathan Eovaldi (11-4, 2.96). The first pitch is scheduled for 8:05 PM EDT.

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Change is on the Horizon

The Boston Red Sox have already begun the process of rebuilding their organization after firing Team President and General Manager Chaim Bloom last week. The search is now on for a replacement for Bloom, who helped rebuild the team's farm system but saw the team make the playoffs just once in his four years. Manager Alex Cora will likely have an uncertain future as well as he tries to navigate the Red Sox out of last place with two weeks to go. The Red Sox have fallen behind the Yankees and slipped under .500 thanks to a 2-8 stretch heading into the series opener with the Rangers. On Monday night, the Red Sox scratched across two runs in the eighth inning to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 3-2 win.

The Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the hill in game two of the series. Houck recently returned to the rotation after missing several starts recovering from a comebacker that hit him in the face. Houck is 5-9 on the season in 18 starts including four quality starts. He has allowed 90 hits in 93 innings pitched with an ERA of 4.94. He has a K/9 rate of 8.4 and his WHIP is 1.33. Houck is 2-5 on the road in eight starts with an ERA of 4.75. In his last five starts, Houck is 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA while giving up 28 hits in 25.1 innings pitched.

Key Injuries: 1B Triston Casas is out.

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Disastrous Weekend but Still Alive

The Texas Rangers are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot in the American League despite a disastrous weekend in Cleveland. After sweeping back-to-back series with the A's and then the Blue Jays, the Rangers looked to be back on track and alive and well in the AL playoff chase. The Rangers arrived in Cleveland and things turned in the wrong direction. The Rangers were swept in three games by the Guardians, outscored 23-6 in the series. On Monday night against the Red Sox, the Rangers skid continued as they struck out 12 times and blew a 2-1 lead in the eighth inning.

The Rangers will hand the ball to former Red Sox pitcher Nathan Eovaldi in game two of the series. Eovaldi is 11-6 in 22 starts with an ERA of 2.94 on the season. Since coming off the IL, Eovaldi has struggled. Eovaldi returned on September 5th from an IL stint that began in July. He is 0-1 in those three starts and has an ERA of 7.71 in that time. He's only thrown a total of seven innings in those three starts while giving up 11 hits and allowing six runs including three home runs. It will be interesting to see how much the Rangers will extend Eovaldi in this matchup.

Key Injuries: 3B Josh Jung and RF Adolis Garcia are out.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Red Sox are out of the playoff race and have struggled as of late but this game and series represents a chance for the Sox to avoid another losing season and perhaps secure the job security of Alex Cora. Starter Houck is certainly a pitcher who is fighting for his place in next year's Red Sox rotation. He has pitched decently since returning from the IL and does get a chance here to face a Rangers' lineup missing some key pieces in Garcia and Jung. The Rangers' Eovaldi has been limited since coming back from IL and hasn't gotten out of the fourth inning in any of his three starts. His ability to recover will be key for the Rangers' playoff chances, particularly with the recent news that Max Scherzer is likely done for the year. Unfortunately, Eovaldi did not fare well in his lone start against the Red Sox this year with an ERA of nearly seven against the BoSox. I like the Red Sox to do some damage against him here once again given his recent struggles.

Take the Sox with the money line.

Prediction: Boston +130

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


The Red Sox bats have been relatively quiet while going 2-8 in their last ten heading into this series. They have gone over the total in just four of their last ten games. They will, however, get a chance against Eovaldi here, who has an ERA over seven since returning from the IL. Boston touched him up for four runs in five innings in an eventual 10-6 Red Sox win. The Red Sox have also gone over the total in four of the last five starts made by Houck. The Rangers have gone over the total in seven of their last eight games and two of Eovaldi's last three starts.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over 8.5

Written By Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.

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