Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#905 Pittsburgh Pirates vs.
#906 Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, September 19, 2023 at 7:40pm EDT
Written by Adam Rauzino

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The Pittsburgh Pirates (70-80, 75-75 RL, 80-65-5 O/U) and the Chicago Cubs (78-72, 75-75 RL, 73-73-4 O/U) begin a three-game divisional series on Tuesday evening. The Pirates will likely have Bailey Falter on the rubber. The Cubs will reply with Javier Assad. The Cubs lead the season series by a 9-1 mark

Pirates Begin Last Road Trek

The Pirates will likely have Bailey Falter on the mound. Falter resumed his solid pitching last time out, holding the Nationals to just one run in six innings, and was credited with the victory. The veteran has been great, conceding just two runs in 13.2 innings pitched in September, and now has a 4.40 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP accompanied by a 2-8 record in 77.2 innings. Falter conceded six runs in 4.2 innings against the Cubs last month and has a disastrous 10.13 ERA in 15.1 career innings against the rivals. 

Pittsburgh heads on the road after going 3-4 on a homestand. They won three of four against the Nationals but dropped two of three against the Yankees this past weekend. The pitching struggled, allowing 15 runs against the Yankees. The Pirates have shown progress this season and are 5-5 in their last ten games. 

Ke’Bryan Hayes has not been able to break through against the Cubs pitching this season, posting just three RBIs and a .610 OPS. The 26-year-old third baseman has 59 RBIs accompanied by a respectable .756 OPS on the year. He is contributing, amassing four RBIs in his last five games, and has a strong .783 OPS this month.

Pittsburgh is scoring an average of 4.19 runs per game, ranking them 25th. The pitching staff has reported a 4.49 team ERA, placing them 20th.

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Assad Starts, Cubs Return Home

The Cubs will have Javier Assad on the hill. Assad had trouble last time out, allowing four runs in 3.1 innings against the Rockies, and was able to escape with a no-decision. The right-hander has quietly been one of the Cubs most consistent pitchers. He has registered a 3.10 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP accompanied by a 3-3 record in 95.2 innings pitched on the year. Assad limited the Pirates to one run in seven innings in a 10-1 victory in the only meeting this season and has conceded five runs (four earned) in only 11 career innings. 

Chicago is glad to be home after posting a 1-5 mark on a road trek. They lost two of three to the Rockies and were dealt another series loss this past weekend, losing all three bouts against the Diamondbacks who are also in the wildcard picture. The pitching wasn’t able to come through with any gems, allowing 19 runs against the Diamondbacks. The Cubs are 2-8 in their last ten clashes.

Christopher Morel has bashed four homers with seven RBIs and a solid .830 OPS in September. The 24-year-old second baseman now has 23 home runs along with 67 RBIs and an .807 OPS on the season. Morel has registered five RBIs and a mediocre .712 OPS against the Pirates.

Chicago is averaging 4.99 runs per game, good for seventh. The pitching is solid, posting a 4.05 ERA, placing them 13th. 

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Full-Game Side Bet

Insiders Status:


The Cubs have dominated the Pirates this season, winning nine of the ten meetings. Pittsburgh has nothing to play for while the Cubs are battling for wildcard positioning. The Pirates have lost three of their last four road games.

Furthermore, Pirates' expected starter Bailey Falter has been exploited by the Cubs, issuing an abysmal 10.13 ERA in 15.1 career innings against the division rivals. Cubs pitcher Javier Assad continues to give the Cubs reliable innings. The righty held Pittsburgh to one run in seven innings in the lone meeting this season. Assad sported a 2.48 ERA last month and has recorded a solid 3.78 ERA in September.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

Insiders Status:


I expect a low-scoring game. The Pirates have no answer for the Cubs pitching, averaging a measly 2.7 runs in the 10 meetings. They have scored four or fewer runs in six of their last ten clashes. 

In addition, while I expect enough offense against Bailey Falter to get the win, he has been solid, producing a minuscule 1.35 ERA this month. The Cubs bats have cooled down, averaging only 3.3 runs in their last ten games. The under is also a convincing 8-2 in the Cubs’ last ten games. 

Prediction: Under

Written By Adam Rauzino , "Adam Rauzino"

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball, and football. He enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about various sports as well as personal finance and being an expert sports bettor. Prior to bringing his talents here to Winners and Whiners, Adam graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance. You would do yourself a huge favor by following Adam on a daily basis. 

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