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Cubs vs. Brewers,
9-21-2017 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#907 Chicago
Cubs
#908 Milwaukee
Brewers

Thursday, September 21, 2017 at 8:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Chicago Cubs

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Milwaukee Brewers

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

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Chicago Cubs (84-66 SU, 65-85 RL, 71-72-7 O/U) vs Milwaukee Brewers (81-70 SU, 82-69 RL, 65-79-7 O/U)

When: 8:10 PM EDT, Thursday, September 21, 2017

Where: Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Lines: Chicago -140/ Milwaukee +130

Total: 8.5

Tonight on the MLB diamond and a pair of National League Central fore will continue to fight for the division title as they Chicago Cubs battle it out with the Milwaukee Brewers in game one of their four-game series from Miller Park in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The Brewers lead the season series 8-7. Pitching Probables: Taking the hill for the Cubs will be Jake Arrieta (14-9, 3.48 ERA) and he will be opposed by Zach Davies (17-9, 3.89 ERA).

Cubs Grab Huge Win In Tampa

The Chicago Cubs are rolling right as they have won their last seven games in a row after taking a 2-1 win in Tampa Bay on Tuesday night. They now have a little breathing room in the National League Central as they have a 3.5 game lead over the Brewers and a 6.0 game lead over the Cardinals. THey are far from out of the woods yet as this is game one of four against the Brewers and after this series, they will travel to St Louis for four games. This will be a very interesting week plus in the Central. The Cubs grabbed a big road win over the Rays to start this trip as they topped them by a score of 2-1. Mike Montgomery had a strong outing as he allowed just one ER on one hit and no walks over 6.0 innings of work. He got the win and is now 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA on the year. The pen held the Rays scoreless the rest of the way and Wade Davis notched his 32nd save of the year. The pitching has been strong of late as they have allowed 3.00 rpg over their last eight games. The Cubs are 38-34 on the road and have averaged 4.76 rpg and have allowed 4.10 rpg in those games. Taking the hill for Cubs in this one will be Jake Arrieta and he has gone 14-9 with a 3.48 ERA in 28 starts on the year, including 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his last three starts and 9-7 with a 3.92 ERA in 18 starts on the road. Arrieta has gone 15-5 with a 2.60 ERA in 30 games (24 starts) in his career during Sept/ Oct and he is 8-4 with a 2.79 ERA in 14 career starts against the Brewers, including 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in four starts here at Miller Park.  

The Cubs have been a good offensive team so far as they come in ranked 6th in the league in scoring, putting up 5.09 rpg, while also ranking 16th in hitting at .256 and 9th in homers with 210. On the mound, they have been solid so far as they come in ranked 10th in the league in ERA at 4.04, while also ranking 9th in WHIP at 1.28.

This Is What The Brewers Have Been Waiting For

The Milwaukee Brewers held the division lead for most of the first half of the season and have stay within striking distance for the entire 2nd half of the season. Now they have a chance to make all that patience pay off as they get the Cubs for four games here at home and they are just 3.5 games out of first in the division. After this series, the Cubs have a four-game set in St Louis and that could benefit the Brewers as well. This is the chance they have been waiting for all season and now they look to take advantage of that chance. The Brewers have really been getting great pitching of late as they have a 2.53 ERA in their last 10 games, including an ERA of 0.91 from their pen over that stretch and they have gone 8-2 in those games. They will need that pitching to continue in this series against a very good Cubs offense. The Brewers have gone 41-33 here at home for the year and they have averaged 4.69 rpg and have allowed 4.53 rpg in those games. The Brewers will be sending out Zach Davies in this one and he has gone 17-9 with a 3.89 ERA in 31 starts on the year, including 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA in his last three starts and 8-6 with a 5.67 ERA in 14 starts here at home. Davis has gone 5-5 with a 3.74 ERA in 13 starts during Sept/ Oct and he is 15-13 with a 4.82 ERA in 35 career starts in this park, while against the Cubs he has gone 5-4 with a 4.08 ERA in nine starts.  

The Brewers have been a below average offensive team so far as they come in ranked 21st in the league in scoring, putting up 4.56 rpg, while also ranking 21st in hitting at .250 and 8th in homers with 212. On the mound, they have been solid so far as they come in ranked 8th in the league in ERA at 3.97, while also ranking 13th in WHIP at 1.34.

Trends

Chicago is:

  • The Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven road games vs. a team with a winning record
  • The Under is 23-9-1 in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

Milwaukee is:

  • The Under is 8-0-1 in their last nine home games vs. a team with a winning road record
  • The Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record overall

This should be a dynamite series between a couple of teams that are fighting for the National League Central title. The Cubs have been very hot of late as they have won their last seven games in a row (prior to Wednesday), while the Brewers have won nine of their last 11 games (pending Wednesday). The Cubs have been a hot offensive club of late, but their pitching has also been strong as they have allowed just 3.00 rpg over their last eight games and Jake Arrieta has a 2.15 ERA over his last 10 starts, plus he has a 2.08 ERA in four career starts in this park. The Brewers have been hot on offense of late, but they have been really strong on the mound lately as they have a 2.53 ERA in their last 10 games and Zack Davies has a 2.287 ERA in his last seven starts. He has struggled at home with a 5.67 ERA, but also has a 1.97 ERA in his last two starts here. Strong pitching and a playoff-like atmosphere should lead to a low-scoring game.

Pick: Under 8.5

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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