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Rays vs. Orioles,
9-21-2017 - Pick and Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#911 Tampa Bay
Rays
#912 Baltimore
Orioles

Thursday, September 21, 2017 at 7:05pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Tampa Bay Rays

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Baltimore Orioles

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Tampa Bay Rays (73-78 SU, 71-80 RL, 73-75-3 O/U) vs Baltimore Orioles (73-79 SU, 71-81 RL, 75-73-4 O/U)

When: 7:05 PM EDT, Thursday, September 21, 2017

Where: Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland

Lines: Baltimore -120/ Tampa Bay +110

Total: 9.5

Major League baseball action on Thursday evening and the Tampa Bay Rays will duel it out with the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Maryland in game one of their four-game series. The season series is tied 6-6. Pitching Probables: Taking the hill for the Rays will be Matt Andriese (5-3, 4.44 ERA) and the Orioles will be sending out Gabriel Ynoa (1-2, 4.18 ERA).

The Rays Are Just About Out Of It

The Tampa Bay Rays are trying to hang in the wildcard race, but they are not doing a good job of it as they have gone just 3-8 in their last 11 games after falling 2-1 to the Cubs in game one of this series. As a result, they are now five games out of the 2nd wildcard spot and are just about out of time to make up the ground needed to get in. The offense has been their biggest culprit of late as they have now averaged just 2.30 rpg over their last 10 games. Chris Archer had a solid outing against the Cubs as he allowed just two ERs on four hits in six innings enough, but his offense really let him down. The Rays have gone 35-39 on the road for the year and they have averaged 4.28 rpg and have allowed 4.68 rpg in those games. Taking the hill for the Rays in this one will be Matt Andriese and he has gone 5-3 with a 4.44 ERA in 16 games (15 starts) on the year, including 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA in his last three starts and 1-3 with a 5.83 ERA in seven games (six starts) on the road. Andriese has gone 2-5 with a 5.85 ERA in 16 games (nine starts) in Sept/ Oct, while against the Orioles in his career he has gone 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA in six games (three starts), including 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in four games (two starts) here at Camden Yards.

Tampa Bay has been a bit below average on offense this year as they come in ranked 27th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.21 rpg, while also ranking 27th in hitting at .243 and 7th in homers with 213. On the mound, they have been solid so far as they come in ranked 9th in the league in ERA at 3.99, while also ranking 7th in WHIP at 1.26.

Orioles Waste Great Start From Gausman

The Baltimore Orioles made a valiant run, but it just doesn’t look like they will be able to make up the ground needed to get in the postseason. They are not officially eliminated, but they are 5.5 games out of the 2nd wildcard slot with just nine games to go (including this one). On Tuesday night they had a chance to grab a much-needed win but fell to the Red Sox by a score of 1-0 in 11 innings. They got great pitching in the game, but their offense just didn’t show up in the game. Kevin Gausman got the start and he allowed just three hits and one walk while striking out seven in 8.0 innings of work in the game. Brad Brach pitched the 10th and 11th innings and allowed one ER on two hits and two walks to take the loss. The Red Sox scored their run on a wild pitch. He is now 4-5 with a 2.60 ERA on the year. It was a tough loss for the Orioles and now it seems like they can just start concentrating on getting ready for next year. The O’s have gone 44-32 at home and have averaged 4.92 rpg and have allowed 4.95 rpg in those games. The Orioles will be sending out Gabriel Ynoa in this one and he has gone 1-2 with 4.18 ERA in seven games (two starts) on the year. In his career, he has gone 0-2 with a 3.98 ERA in five starts overall and will be making his first-ever appearance against the Rays in this one. Ynoa was 6-9 with a 5.25 ERA in 21 starts at Norfolk (AAA) this year.   

Baltimore has been solid on offense this year so far as they come in ranked 14th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.08 rpg, while also ranking 7th in hitting at .262 and 1st in homers with 227. On the mound, they have been poor so far as they come in ranked 27th in the league in ERA at 4.87, while also ranking 27th in WHIP at 1.44.

Trends

Tampa Bay is:

  • 7-15 in their last 22 vs. the American League East
  • 1-4 in their last five road games

Baltimore is:

  • 64-28 in their last 92 home games vs. a team with a losing record
  • 12-5 their last 17 home games in this series

Both of these teams are now longshots of making the postseason, but still, I expect both to fight hard till the end. Gabriel Ynoa gets the nod for the Orioles in this one and he did not pitch well in the minors this year, but he has not been terrible in the majors so far and the Rays have never seen him, which gives him an edge. Matt Andriese has really struggled for the Rays this year, especially of late as he has gone 0-2 with a 10.64 ERA in his last three starts and he is 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in four games (two starts) in this park in his career. The Rays are just 5-12 in their last 17 games here in Baltimore and I expect them to fall in this one as well.

Pick: Baltimore -120

There are two sides to every totals play, pitching and hitting. On one side, we note that the pitching is not very good in this series, but on the other side are a couple of offenses that have really struggled of late. Vegas is looking at just one side as the OU line for this one has been set at 9.5. I don’t see it as a high scoring game as I will be looking at the other side in this one. The Rays have really been struggling to score of late as they have averaged just 2.30 rpg in their last 10 games and they have never seen Gabriel Ynoa, who actually has a decent 3.98 ERA in five career starts. The Rays will send out Matt Andriese and he has a 10.64 ERA in his last three starts and a 5.83 ERa on the road, but the Orioles have averaged just 3.30 rpg in their last 10 games. Tampa’s last 10 games have averaged just 7.10 rpg, while Baltimore’s last 10 have averaged just 8.90 rpg. Take the Under here.

Pick: Under 9.5

Confidence: 4

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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