These two teams split the first two games of this series with Cincinnati winning the opener 4-2 on Thursday and dropping Game 2 1-0 on Friday night. Cincinnati owns the worst offense in baseball over the past week. They’ve scored just nine total runs over their past seven games, while hitting a paltry .177 at the plate as a team during that span.
DeSclafani continues Sepetember slide
Cincinnati is expected to turn to right-hander Anthony DeSclafani, who continued his September swoon in a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday. He was undone by two fifth-inning home runs to Domingo Santana and Christian Yelich and finished the night with five innings of four-run ball to take his second consecutive loss. DeSclafani has fallen on hard times as of late, allowing 13 runs over his last 13 ⅔ innings of work. After posting a 2.62 ERA in five August starts, the Reds’ right-hander is 0-2 with a 7.79 ERA over his past four games and comes into the weekend sporting a 7-6 overall record to go along with a disappointing 4.92 ERA. DeSclafani has been bitten by the long ball all season long, allowing 22 home runs in his 19 outings this season.
The Reds’ right-hander has yet to face the Marlins this season, last starting against them in 2016, when he tossed six innings of two-run ball to get the win. According to Baseball Savant, the current Marlins’ roster is batting a healthy .348 n 26 career plate appearances off of DeSclafani heading into Saturday’s start.
Urena rides hot streak into start vs. Reds
The Marlins are scheduled to counter by handing the ball to staff leader Jose Urena after he posted yet another solid start to win his fourth consecutive decision last time out against the Philadelphia Phillies. Urena allowed one earned run or less for the third consecutive time against the Phillies, tossing five innings of one-run ball and limiting Philadelphia to just three hits on the night. The Marlins’ right-hander is 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts in his last seven outings and 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last three. The 27-year-old now sports a 7-12 overall record and a 4.21 ERA in 29 starts this season.
Urena last started against the Reds in 2017, when he limited Cincinnati to one run on three hits in six strong innings of work to get the win. He comes in with a 1-1 career record against Reds to go along with a 4.50 lifetime ERA. The current Reds lineup is batting .345 in 39 plate appearances versus the Marlins’ right-hander coming into this game.
- Marlins are 10-4 in their last 14 Saturday games.
- Marlins are 4-1 in Urenas last 5 starts.
- Reds are 8-23 in their last 31 road games.
- Reds are 2-7 in their last 9 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 1-5 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
These two pitchers are headed in opposite directions right now. DeSclafani has an 8.56 ERA over his last three starts, while Urena is 3-0 with a 1.47 ERA over his last three outings and 4-1 with a 2.79 mark over his past seven overall. He should be able to take care of business against a Reds lineup that is batting just .177 with only nine runs over their past seven games. While Urena is just 2-9 at home this season, I’m rolling with the Marlins to get the job done at home in this spot on Saturday night.
Prediction: Pick: Miami +100
Full-Game Total Pick
The Reds have been awful on offense over the past week and it is always a struggle for the Marlins to scrape runs by home plate. They haven’t been much better over the past week, ranking just 22nd in the MLB in runs scored during that span. Miami will get a boost going against a struggling pitcher, but runs could still be at a premium in a game between two offensively challenged teams. Take the under in this matchup at Marlins Park on Saturday evening.
Prediction: Under 8
Full-Game Prop Bet
DeSclafani has surrendered 22 home runs in 19 starts and seven long balls in his last five starts coming into this game. J.T. Realmuto is far and beyond the Marlins best hitter. He leads the team with a .284 batting average and has blasted a team-high 21 home runs this season. He’s found his power stroke as of late too, batting .275 with four home runs in just 51 at-bats during the month of September, so there’s some value on taking Realmuto to hit the first home run of this game on Saturday night.
Prediction: J.T. Realmuto to hit the first home run
First Five Innings Side Pick
There’s a lot of value on the Marlins here, especially considering they have they worst bullpen in baseball this season. Miami’s relievers own a league-worst 5.38 ERA through 153 games this year, so this is probably my favorite pick out of the bunch. There’s no denying that Urena has been pitching better as of late and he tossed six innings of one-run ball in his previous start against the Reds in 2017. Take the Marlins on the five-inning line on Saturday night.
Prediction: Miami Marlins
First Five Innings Total Bet
Neither of these two teams has been able to generate much offense so far in this series. They have combined for just seven runs through the first two games of the series and are coming off of a 1-0 game on Friday. Urena has surrendered just one run in each of his last three starts, so runs could be hard to come by at the start of this one. Look for this game to stay under the projected five-inning total in Miami on Saturday.
First Five Innings Prop Prediction
The Reds have scored just 1.3 runs per game over their past seven contests and Urena has allowed exactly one run in each of his last three starts. Meanwhile, DeSclafani has actually been solid at the start of games this season, sporting a 2.84 ERA in each of the first two innings of his starts. These two teams have combined for just seven runs over the first two games of the series, so I feel good about taking the under on 1.5 first inning runs in this matchup between two of the worst teams in baseball.
Prediction: Under 1.5 First Inning Runs