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Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins,
9-23-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#951 Cincinnati
Reds -105
#952 Miami
Marlins 8

Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 1:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Cincinnati Reds
M. LORENZEN

66 - 90

0
W's
0
L's
0
ERA
0.5
WHIP

Miami Marlins
T. RICHARDS

61 - 93

3
W's
9
L's
4.95
ERA
1.45
WHIP

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The Miami Marlins will host the Cincinnati Reds in the three game series finale Sunday afternoon from Marlins Park. The Reds will give the call to 26-year old right-hander Michael Lorenzen, and the Marlins will respond with 25-year old right-hander Trevor Richards. The Reds lead the season-series 3-2.

Lorenzen Silences Brewers

Michael Lorenzen will make his 44th appearance and second start of the season, targeting his third win of the month. Lorenzen made his first start of the season on September 18th after pitching out of the bullpen all season and he was solid, holding the Brewers to one run (zero earned) in four innings. Overall, the fourth-year right-hander is having a terrific season, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP to go with a 3-1 record in 71.1 innings of work. Lorenzen has conceded nine runs (eight earned) with a 1-1 record in 20 career innings against the Marlins.

Scooter Gennett is finishing his season on a strong note, sporting a .313 average with 12 RBI’s on the month. The 28-year old second baseman is currently hitting .316 with 23 home runs and 92 RBI’s on the season, and he is five RBI’s away from his career-high of 97 RBI’s. Gennett is 3 for 15 with four RBI’s against the Marlins this season. The Reds are scoring an average of 4.38 runs per game, ranking them 18th in the Majors. The Cincinnati pitching staff is carrying a 4.65 team ERA, placing them 24th in the Majors.

Richards Still Searching for First Win Since July

Trevor Richards will get the nod for the 24th time of the year, still searching for his first win since July. Richards was shaky in his previous start, squandering four runs in five innings against the Nationals, however he was able to escape with the no decision in an 8-5 Nats’ win. The rookie right-hander hasn’t been sharp in three straight starts, and he is now holding a 4.95 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP paired with a 3-9 record in 112.2 innings of work on the year. Richards is making his first career start against the Reds in this matchup.

Brian Anderson is having a very quiet second half after a promising first half, and he has only driven in three runs paired with a .160 average this month. The 25-year old rookie third baseman does lead the Marlins with a .352 on base percentage, and he is currently hitting .268 with 10 home runs and 59 RBI’s. Anderson is 4 for 15 with two RBI’s against the Reds this month. The Marlins rank last in the Majors with an average of 3.66 runs per game. The Miami pitching staff possesses a 4.82 team ERA, pegging them down at 26th in the big leagues.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I am taking the Reds in this matchup. The Marlins have dropped seven out of their last ten games heading into Saturday’s action, and they are struggling to push across runs, averaging only three runs in their last ten games. Furthermore, the Reds pitching has been sharp, holding their opponents to three or fewer runs in seven out of their last ten games, and Reds’ starter Michael Lorenzen features a terrific 3.03 ERA on the season.

Prediction: Cincinnati Reds -132

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

The under is a strong play in this matchup. The Reds have only scored a combined 13 runs in five games against the Marlins this season heading into Saturday’s action, and the under is 9-1-1 in the Reds’ last 11 games overall. The Marlins continue to struggle at the plate, plating a total of only five runs in their last three games, and the under is 4-1 in their last five games against the Reds.

Prediction: Under 8

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

I am taking the Reds as the last team to score. The Reds have scored 87 runs in the sixth inning, and their highest scoring innings takes place in the eighth where they have plated 93 runs. I expect the Reds to take advantage of a poor Marlins bullpen that ranks last in the Majors with a 5.38 ERA.

Prediction: Last Team to Score: Cincinnati Reds

First Five Innings Side Pick
Rating:

I am taking a chance on the Marlins on the five inning line. The Marlins two highest scoring innings occur in the first half of a game with 72 runs in the fourth inning, followed by 96 runs and a .284 team batting average in the fifth inning this season. In addition, the Reds highest scoring inning doesn’t occur until the seventh inning.

Prediction: Miami Marlins

First Five Innings Total Bet
Rating:

I am taking the over on the five inning total. Marlins’s starter Trevor Richards has allowed 14 runs in his last 11.1 innings logged spread across three starts. In addition, Michel Lorenzen is being used as a starter in this one, however he is primarily a relief pitcher, so I expect the Marlins to strike for a few runs against him.

Prediction: Over

First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Rating:

I am taking the Reds to score first. Marlins’ starter Trevor Richards has trouble in the first inning, posting a 6.65 ERA in his 23 innings logged in the opening frame. The Reds have scored 75 runs in the opening inning, and they have hit more home runs in the first frame than any other inning.

Prediction: Reds to Score First

Adam Rauzino

Adam has been a sports fanatic his entire life, closely following hockey, baseball, basketball and football. Adam enjoys analyzing various stats, as well as studying Sabermetrics and analytics to take his picks to a whole new level. Adam has a passion for writing about about various sports as well as personal finance. He graduated with a diploma in business marketing and business finance.

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