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Marlins vs. Diamondbacks,
9-24-2017 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#961 Miami
Marlins
#962 Arizona
Diamondbacks

Sunday, September 24, 2017 at 4:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Miami Marlins

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Arizona Diamondbacks

-

W's
L's
0
ERA
0
WHIP

Betting Trends

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Miami Marlins (72-81 SU, 77-76 RL, 79-63-11 O/U) vs Arizona Diamondbacks (89-65 SU, 84-70 RL, 69-77-8 O/U)

When: 4:10 PM EDT, Sunday, September 24, 2017

Where: Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona

Lines: n/a

Total:

The National League east squares off with the National League West this afternoon as the Miami Marlins take on the Arizona Diamondbacks in the final game of their three-game series from Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. Pitching Probables:  Dan Straily (10-9, 4.17 ERA) gets the nod for the Marlins and he will be opposed by Patrick Corbin (14-13, 4.14 ERA).

Marlins Have Been Playing High-Scoring Games

The Miami Marlins have been playing some fun baseball of late as their offense has been very hot, while their pitching has been among the worst in the league lately. A prime example was their game against these Diamondbacks in game one of this series as they scored 11 runs in that game, but gave up 13. The Marlins have now averaged 6.09 rpg in their last 11 games and have allowed 7.36 rpg over that same stretch. Very-high scoring game. In the 13-11 loss, they had 17 hits and were led by Marcell Ozuna, who had two homers and three RBIs in the game. He now has 36 on the year. Justin Bour (24th) also hit one out. Adam Conley was really lit up as he allowed seven earned runs on six hits and a walk in 1.2 innings of work. Dustin McGowan allowed three ERs on two hits in an inning and took the loss in the game. He is now 8-2 with a 4.72 ERA on the year. The Marlins have gone 32-44 on the road and have averaged 4.89 rpg and have allowed 5.41 rpg in those games. The Marlins will be sending out Dan Straily in this one and he has gone 10-9 with a 4.17 ERA in 31 starts on the year, including 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts and 5-6 with a 5.19 ERA in 15 starts on the road. Straily has gone 10-4 with a 4.49 ERA in 26 games (19 starts) during Sept/ Oct and 16-7 with a 3.47 ERA in 38 games (34 starts) in the daytime, while against the Diamondbacks in his career he has gone 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in one start.

The Marlins have been a bit above average on offense this year as they come in ranked 13th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.72 rpg, while also ranking 4th in hitting at .265 and 17th in homers with 187. On the mound, they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 25th in the league in ERA at 4.78, while also ranking 25th in WHIP at 1.43.

Greinke Roughed Up… D-Backs Still Win

It hasn’t happened all that often in his career, especially when he has pitched at home, but Zack Greinke was lit up by the Miami offense of Friday night. The Diamondbacks did win the game by a score of 13-11, but Grienke allowed eight Ers on nine hits and two walks in just four innings of work in the game. The pen then allowed just three runs the rest of the way, while the offense pounded out 15 hits to bail out their ace. Having a huge game was Chris Iannetta, who had three hits and eight RBIs in the game. Two of his hits were homers and he now has 156 on the year. Christian Walker (1st) and J.D. Martinez (42nd) also went deep in the game. The Diamondbacks are now 15-3 in Greinke’s home starts this year. Arizona has gone 49-27 here at home and have averaged 5.57 rpg and have allowed 4.07 rpg in those games. Patrick Corbin will toe the rubber for the Diamondbacks in this one and he has gone 14-13 with a 4.14 ERA in 31 starts on the year, including 1-2 with a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts and 9-4 with a 3.18 ERA in 16 starts here at home. Corbin has gone 7-10 with a 5.00 ERA in 29 games (22 starts) in Sept/ Oct and 20-21 with a 4.01 ERA in 51 games (47 starts) in the daytime, plus he is 23-22 with a 3.55 ERA in 58 games ( 49 starts) here at Chase Field in his career, while against the Fish in his career overall he has gone 1-1 with a 5.04 ERA in five starts.

The Diamondbacks have been a solid offensive team thus far as they come in ranked 9th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.99 rpg, while also ranking 17th in hitting at .254 and 13th in homers with 208. On the mound, they have been very strong this year as they come in ranked 4th in the league in ERA at 3.67, while also ranking 6th in WHIP at 1.26.  

Trends

Miami is:

  • The Over is 7-1-2 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30
  • The Over is 20-8-1 in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning record

Arizona is:

  • The Over is 13-3-1 in Corbin’s last 17 starts vs. the National League East
  • The Over is 13-4 in Corbin’s last 17 starts with 5 days of rest

The Arizona D-Backs look like they have the top wildcard spot in the National League all sewn up and they will be taking on a Miami team that is still playing hard. The Marlins have averaged a solid 6.09 rpg in their last 11 games and while Corbin has pitched well at home, he does have a 7.31 ERA in his last three starts and a 5.04 ERA in five career starts against the Marlins. I can see him giving up some runs against a hot Miami Offense in this one. The D-Backs have been a very good offensive team here at home and the Marlins have allowed 7.36 rpg in their last 11 games. Dan Straily has a 6.75 ERA in his last three starts overall and a 5.18 ERA on the road. I look for the D-Backs to score plenty in this one. This game should put up a ton of runs and go way over the total.

Pick: Over

David Hess (@DavidHess311)

I have always had a fascination with numbers and sports, so I combined the two to become a handicapper and a blogger. I love sports and I love writing about them and all the info I put in my blogs is well-thought-out and well-researched. I am a big fan of all the major sports and the colleges, plus I know golf pretty well, tennis and the WNBA. I am very versatile. Hope you enjoy my content.

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