Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#2909 New York Mets vs.
#2910 Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:10pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The New York Mets will head to Miller Park on Friday evening for the opening game of their National League series battle against the Milwaukee Brewers.

New York continued its downward spiral earlier in the week with a series loss against the Boston Red Sox. The Mets have now dropped seven of their last eight games to fall 7.5 games back of the National League East lead with a 73-79 overall record. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has built a 7.5-game advantage in the NL Central race after going 91-62 through 153 games.

Can the Mets take down the Brewers on the road at Miller Park on Friday night?

Megill hoping to close season strong versus Milwaukee

Right-handed rookie Tylor Megill will toe the rubber at Miller Park in the series opener for the Mets on Friday. The 26-year-old has held his own at the big league level this year, going 3-5 with a 4.57 ERA in 16 starts. Last time out, he was touched up for six runs in just three innings of work in a loss versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Over his last five starts, Megill is 2-3 with a 7.66 ERA. For the season, he owns a 3-5 overall record to go along with a 4.57 ERA in 16 starts.

It has been an up-and-down season for the Mets’ rookie, who has flashed potential despite some unsightly season-long numbers. Megill has struck out a healthy 10.15 batters and walked just 2.45 batters per nine innings of work. However, he has also had problems with the long ball, giving up 1.79 home runs per nine during his rookie campaign.

The rookie could also be fading down the stretch after never pitching more than 72 innings in a single minor league season. His current 80 ⅔ innings pitched would represent a career-high mark at any professional level, which might be why he was scratched from his previously scheduled start against the Boston Red Sox.

In his lone start of the season against the Brewers, Megill allowed just one run in five innings of work before escaping with a no-decision on the night. According to Baseball Savant, current Brewers are batting .143 in 17 plate appearances off of the Mets’ rookie ahead of Friday’s contest.

Lauer turning into steady hand in Brewers rotation

Milwaukee is scheduled to counter with left-hander Eric Lauer for its series opener against the Mets on Friday. Lauer has been a bright spot in the Brewers’ rotation over the last few months, posting a stellar 2.00 ERA over his last 13 starts. The Brewers’ left-hander has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of those outings during that span, including his last start against the Chicago Cubs. Last time out, Lauer surrendered just one run in 5 ⅓ innings of work before leaving with a no-decision. For the season, he is 6-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 22 games (18 starts).

As Lauer’s ERA continues to drop, his peripherals have also improved. Through 107 innings, he has fanned 8.83 batters and walked just 3.11 batters per nine innings of work. However, he has also benefited from a .251 BABIP and 80.5 percent strand rate so far this year.

In two career starts against the Mets, Lauer is 0-2 with an unsightly 14.21 ERA. Per Baseball Savant, current Mets are hitting a whopping .548 in 34 plate appearances off of Lauer heading into Friday’s matchup.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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At this price, bettors should take a hard look at the Mets in this spot. Megill hasn’t pitched in nearly 10 days, so he should be well-rested for this matchup. Meanwhile, Lauer is due for some regression on the hill after giving up three earned runs or fewer in 14 straight starts. In fact, the Brewers’ left-hander has a 2.00 ERA over his last 13 outings overall. This looks like a good spot for that to happen, as Lauer has struggled against New York in the past. Take the Mets to come out on top in this matchup on the road at Miller Park on Friday night.

Prediction: New York Mets +130

Full-Game Total Pick

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This has the makings of a low-scoring affair, especially with the Mets have been mired in a slump at the plate as of late. New York has scored four runs or fewer in six of their last seven contests and Lauer comes in pitching arguably his best baseball of the season. The Brewers’ left-hander has allowed one run or fewer in four consecutive starts, spanning 24 ⅔ innings of work. Meanwhile, Megill is trying to bounce back after being knocked around in his last start against the St. Louis Cardinals. Take this game to stay under the projected total on Friday night. 

Prediction: Under 8
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He has been a very successful sports bettor over the years and has now brought his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.