The Colorado Rockies (65-86) will host the San Diego Padres (83-68) on Saturday in the second contest of a three game series. The Rockies took the opener 4-3 in 10-innings.
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Padres have a hard time winning in ColoradoAfter winning five straight, the Padres now come into Saturday on a two-game losing streak they need to turn around quickly. With 11 games remaining, San Diego is holding onto the final NL wild-card spot leading the Brewers by two games. Milwaukee has nine of its last 11 games left against teams with losing records. The Padres have not played well in Colorado recently, and once this series ends, they will head home to host the Dodgers in a four-game series.
Final. pic.twitter.com/TFC33eCaOE— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 24, 2022
Yu Darvish (15-7, 3.05 ERA) will get the start on Saturday. The Padres have won his last five starts and he has a 1.00 ERA in the month of September.
Offensively, San Diego is 15th averaging 4.4 runs per game this season and ranks 20th in home runs. Manny Machado is the team's MVP with a .296 batting average, 30 home runs, and 95 RBI. Juan Soto, one of the biggest trade deadline acquisitions, has struggled. Since the trade, Soto is batting .234 with five home runs and 15 RBI in 42 games.
Rockies win openerThe Rockies have won the season series over the Padres every season since 2016, and it will happen again this year as the Padres have a 10 to 7 edge in this year's head-to-head edition. The Rockies have been dominant at Coors Field, beating the Padres in seven out of eight games. Colorado is an entirely different team when at home, and they pulled off the upset as a +147 dog on Friday. The victory ended with a walk-off single in the ninth by Alan Trejo.
🔮LODO MAGIC🔮 pic.twitter.com/AQR0SkkHSS— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) September 24, 2022
Colorado certainly won't have the starting pitching advantage on Saturday as they send Chad Kuhl (6-9. 5.48 ERA) to the mound. At home, Kuhl is 3-3 with a 5.06 ERA. Against the Padres, Kuhl has been horrific with a 0-2 record and 10.93 ERA in three starts. Fortunately for Kuhl, the Colorado offense is the highest-scoring home team in baseball this season.
Best Bets for this Game
Full-Game Side Bet
Perception is that the Padres are a better team than the Rockies. In a lot of ways this is true, but not head-to-head when these teams play in Colorado. The Rockies are also the third best home moneyline team in baseball this season (+$988) according to covers.com. On the other side the Padres maybe a playoff hopeful, but that they are the ninth worst home profit team (-$466).
The Padres just don't win often in Colorado. Yu Darvish also hasn't performed well at Coors Field in the past and should be due for some regression, so I can't lay the -190 on San Diego. I understand Kuhl has been terrible against the Padres, but if he can be anywhere near respectable for four or five innings, I like Colorado's chances to win this one late with the +175 odds.
Full-Game Total Pick
Expect the offenses to dominant in this one. Yu Darvish is a solid starter, but he has a 5.95 ERA in four career outings at Coors Field. On the other side, expect Chad Kuhl to be hit hard as he has a 10.19 ERA in four games against the Padres since 2021.
Colorado is also first in MLB averaging 5.7 runs per game at home, and the Padres are fifth averaging 4.8 runs per game on the road. The runs could come early or late in this game, and maybe even early and late. I am taking the over.