Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4969 Boston Red Sox vs.
#4970 New York Yankees
Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 7:10pm EDT
Written by Mark Ruelle

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The Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees exchange pleasantries once again on Sunday night as the two teams complete their weekend series. This game is pride-based only as the Sox have been eliminated from the playoffs and the Yankees are virtually locked into the #2 seed in the American League playoffs. On the mound on Sunday will be young righty Brayan Bello (2-6, 4.75) of the Red Sox matching up with veteran lefty Nestor Cortes (10-4, 2.67) of the Yankees. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EST.

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Wait til Next Year

Wait til next year used to be a standard refrain for Red Sox fans before their first World Series title in 2004 since 1918 sent them on the path to four World Series titles in 14 years. It has now been four years since their championship season of 2018 and the roster already looks markedly different with more change on the way this offseason. With an eye towards next year, the Sox battle the Yankees this weekend with a blend of youth and veterans. On Friday night, they fell in ten-innings to the Bombers and then on Saturday, the Sox fell for the fourth-straight game in a 7-5 loss to the Yankees.

The Sox have added young players like first baseman Triston Casas and Sunday night's starter Brayan Bello to a veteran-laden roster down the stretch. Casas has shown the power that he flashed in the minor leagues and will likely get a fair crack at the first base job next season. As for Bello, he struggled out of the gate in late July but has been pitch much more effectively as of late. In his last five starts, Bello is 2-3 with a very solid 2.49 ERA and has struck out 25 batters in 25 innings pitched. Against the Yankees this season, Bello is 0-1 but allowed three unearned runs in his one start against the Yankees.

Record Setting

With their playoff picture pretty clear at this point, the Yankees only have one major concern prior to the playoffs; the American League home run record. Aaron Judge's pursuit of history would be made even sweeter should he set the new home run mark against the Red Sox. Judge has 60 home runs coming into Saturday night's matchup as he has all but had his name engraved on the MVP trophy already. On Saturday night, in front of a packed crowd, Judge went 0-for-3 with a walk and remains stuck on 60 home runs. The Yankees won the game 7-5 for their 93rd win of the season thanks to a tie-breaking home run from Anthony Rizzo in the 7th.

One player that has flown under the radar this season amidst the hoopla surrounding Aaron Judge's season has been Sunday night's starter Nestor Cortes. The journeyman lefty has turned in an all-star season for the Yankees and has been the team's most consistent pitcher from beginning to end. Nestor has career-highs in wins, innings and strikeouts among many other statistics as he readies for the playoffs. In his last three starts, Cortes is 1-0 with a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings worth of work as he works his way back from a brief injury setback. Against Boston this season, Cortes has not been as sharp with a 1-0 record but a 5.19 ERA.

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The Yankees have been cautious with Cortes since he returned from a lower leg injury. They are rather thin in pitching at the moment and do not want to risk injury to their likely game 2 starter in the second round. Boston, on the other hand, has started to let Bello throw in the latter part of the season and he has rewarded them with an ERA in the mid-twos. Bello is also striking out nearly a batter per inning over his last five starts and faces a Yankees lineup that is still rather depleted by injury. While all eyes will be on Judge every time he steps to the plate, I look for Boston to pull this game out against Cortes and the Yankees.

Take Boston with the money line.

Prediction: Boston ML

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These two teams have played to the over in three of the last four matchups and six out of the last ten overall. Cortes has been hit hard by Boston and will likely be gone by the fifth inning at the latest. Bello will be in for roughly 100 pitches and that has taken him into the sixth inning at best in his starts this season. After that, the two teams will turn to their bullpens, neither of which has pitched particularly well lately. Boston has one of the bottom-five bullpen ERA's in baseball and the Yankees once formidable bullpen has been ravaged by injury. Look for the scoring to pick up in this game from the sixth inning on and the two teams to sail past the projected number.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over
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Written By Mark Ruelle , "Mark Ruelle"

Mark has been a sports fanatic since childhood. He is also an avid follower of sports analytics and has used it in his own betting analysis for over two decades. Now we have Mark on our team here at Stat Salt. He holds degrees in marketing, broadcasting, and English and uses this vast array of assets to dissect and analyze game matchups. Mark will provide you with a wide variety of statistics to consider and a strong opinion in each matchup that he covers. Please follow him daily for an up-to-the-minute analysis of all the important games.