Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4955 Milwaukee Brewers vs.
#4956 Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 1:35pm EDT
Written by Chris King

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A pair of NL Central opponents finish off their weekend series on the diamond in the Buckeye State looking to pick up a victory. The Milwaukee Brewers are on the road as they close out a four-game series with the Cincinnati Reds Sunday afternoon. Milwaukee took the first two games of the series as they prevailed 5-1 in the series opener Thursday night and then followed that up with a 5-3 triumph on Friday night to ensure no worse than a split. Will the Brewers earn the win on getaway day to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive or will the Reds throw another wrench in their plans by prevailing here?

Milwaukee Brewers Trying to Stay in Playoff Picture

Milwaukee won their third straight game as they took care of business against the Reds for the second straight night Friday. The Brewers entered Saturday second in the NL Central, 7.5 games behind the Cardinals for the division lead. They were two games behind the Padres for the final wild-card spot in the National League playoff picture. On Friday night, Milwaukee got two hits each from Kolten Wong (run) and Garrett Mitchell in the contest while Andrew McCutchen drove in three runs to go over 1,000 RBI in his career. Eric Lauer didn’t factor in the decision as he threw 2.2 innings, allowing two runs on five hits with three walks and three strikeouts. Luis Perdomo (3-0) with 3.1 scoreless innings of relief, allowing one hit with no walks and four strikeouts. Devin Williams worked the final 1.1 innings, allowing no runs on no hits with no walks and three strikeouts, for his 14th save.

Freddy Peralta is expected to take the mound for the Brewers to make his 16th start of the season in this contest. He comes in 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA, a 1.024 WHIP, 25 walks and 76 strikeouts over 70.1 innings of work on the year. Peralta didn’t factor in the decision in his last start, which came on September 8 at home in the second game of a doubleheader against the Giants. He threw two innings, allowing no runs on no hits with two walks and three strikeouts in a game the Brewers went on to win 4-2. In his last three starts, Peralta has no record with a 0.69 ERA, a 0.38 WHIP, three walks and 11 strikeouts over 13 innings of work. Peralta makes his 17th career appearance and 11th start against the Reds in this contest. He comes in 4-2 with one save, a 3.52 ERA, a 0.984 WHIP, 20 walks and 80 strikeouts over 64 innings of work against them. Peralta is 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, 11 walks and 43 strikeouts over 33 innings in seven career appearances, six starts, at the Great American Ball Park.

Cincinnati Reds Look to Play Spoiler In Series Finale

Cincinnati dropped their second straight and their 12th in the last 15 games as they were beaten by the Brewers Friday night. The Reds entered Saturday fourth in the NL Central race, 29.5 games behind the Cardinals for the division lead. They have been eliminated from playoff contention. On Friday night, Cincinnati finished with seven hits in the contest with Stuart Fairchild the lone player to record two in the game. The Reds were just one of eight with runners in scoring position in the contest. Luis Cessa (4-4) took the loss on the mound as he threw 4.2 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) with four walks and three strikeouts.

Nick Lodolo is on the mound for his 18th start of the season for the Reds in this contest. He comes in 4-7 with a 3.90 ERA, a 1.267 WHIP, 33 walks, a league-high 18 hit batters and 120 strikeouts over 92.1 innings of work. Lodolo took the loss in his last start, which came against the Red Sox Tuesday night at home. He threw five innings, allowing three runs on three hits with three walks and seven strikeouts in a game the Reds dropped 5-3. In his last three starts, Lodolo is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, three walks and 29 strikeouts over 19.1 innings of work. Lodolo makes his third career start against the Brewers in this contest. He comes in 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA, a 1.026 WHIP, four walks and 15 strikeouts over 12.2 innings of work against them. Lodolo is 3-3 with a 2.59 ERA, a 1.186 WHIP, 17 walks and 76 strikeouts over 55.2 innings in 10 career starts at the Great American Ball Park.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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Milwaukee is in need of wins to try and make a move in the NL playoff picture as we’re in the last couple weeks of the regular season. With that said, Lauer struggled in his return off the IL Friday night and one has to wonder if the same scenario will unfold here for Peralta. Lodolo has been excellent at the Great American Ball Park in his rookie season, which is impressive given the bandbox dimensions of the park. He’s dropped his last two but there is no pressure on the Reds at this point of the season as they have long been eliminated from the postseason race. Milwaukee is too inconsistent at the plate to have full faith in, even this late in the season. Take the Reds at home in this contest.

Prediction: Cincinnati Reds +140

Full-Game Total Pick

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Milwaukee entered Saturday with the over posting a 72-68-11 mark in their 151 games this season. The Brewers are tied for 8th in runs per game this season with 4.55, a number that drops down to 4.46 runs per game on the road this season. Milwaukee’s average total is 8.89 runs per game this season and that inches up slightly to 9.04 runs per game on the road. Cincinnati has seen the under go 76-70-5 in their games entering Saturday night. The Reds are tied for 21st in the majors as they average 4.15 runs per game. That number is much better at home as they average 4.71 runs per game at the Great American Ball Park, which is seventh in the majors. Cincinnati has an average total of 9.14 runs per game, a number that bumps up to 9.87 runs per game at home. The first two games of this series saw only six and eight runs on the board. With Lodolo pitching well, this game ends up falling under the total.

Prediction: Under 7
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Written By Chris King , "Chris King"

Chris King has been immersed in the world of professional and collegiate sports for more than three decades. Whether it's playing pickup games or being involved in organized sports to being a fan, he's checked all the boxes. From the NFL to arena football, the NHL to the KHL, the NBA to the WNBA to college hoops, and even MLB to the KBO.  If it's out there, he's covered it and bet on it as well, as Chris has been an expert bettor in his career.  Before joining Winners and Whiners back in 2015, his work appeared around the internet and in print. He's written books for Ruckus Books about college basketball, the NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, golf, and the World Cup. If you're looking for the inside track on hitting a winner, do yourself a favor and read what Chris has to say.