Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4971 Seattle Mariners vs.
#4972 Kansas City Royals
Sunday, September 25, 2022 at 2:10pm EDT
Written by Mason Folz

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This Sunday, the Seattle Mariners and the Kansas City Royals will play the final game of this three-game series. The first pitch will be thrown out at 2:10 PM EST inside Kauffman Stadium. These two teams haven't matched up since April, as the Mariners were able to sweep the Royals at home. The Royals did take game one of this series, though.

The Seattle Mariners are coming into this one after losing their previous series to the Oakland Athletics. The Mariners struggled at the plate, as they only scored two combined runs in their two losses. They will have to warm up at the plate if they want to challenge the Royals on the road.

The Kansas City Royals are entering this one after sweeping the Minnesota Twins in a three-game series. The Royals pitching and fielding were incredible, as they only allowed three combined runs in the final two games. They will have to stay hot on the mound if they want to finish this series strong.

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Can the Mariners Hold On?

The Seattle Mariners are currently 3-7 in their last 10 games played, but they have still been able to hold onto the third and final AL Wild Card spot. Seattle is also stuck in second place in the AL West, as they trail the Houston Astros by 16.0 games. They need to focus on remaining a Wild Card team.

At the plate, the Mariners are scoring 4.21 runs per game and they are hitting .228 as a team. This is the 22nd most runs scored per game and the third lowest overall team batting average. They have struggled to consistently reach base over the past two weeks, which has made it much more difficult to score. They do have a serious amount of home run power littered throughout their lineup. Seattle is hitting 1.23 home runs per game, which is the ninth most in the league. I would also expect the Mariners to play it safe once they reach base safely. They have only stolen 76 bases this season, which is the 17th most.

According to MLB.com, the Mariners will be starting Luis Castillo on the mound. He is currently 7-6 with a 2.85 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. In his last start, he pitched for 4.2 innings, but he gave up six hits and four earned runs to the A's. Castillo has been decent on the road this season, as well. He is currently 4-5, but he has a 2.90 ERA. The Mariners bullpen has also held their own this season, as they are allowing the sixth least amount of runs per game. As a team, Seattle is allowing 3.76 runs per game, which is the fifth least in the league.

Can the Royals Stay Hot?

The Kansas City Royals are currently 5-5 in their last 10, but they have won four games in a row. Unfortunately, they are still 20.5 games back from the Mariners for the final AL Wild Card spot. They are also stuck in fourth place in the AL Central, as they trail the Guardians by 22 games.

At the plate, the Royals are scoring 4.02 runs per game and they are hitting .244 as a team. This is the 24th most runs scored per game and the 14th highest overall team batting average. They have been consistently reaching base over the past few weeks, as this has made it much easier to score. They don't have as much home run power as they originally thought, though. Kansas City is only hitting .85 bombs per game, which is the fourth least in the MLB. I would also expect the Royals to stay aggressive once they have reached base safely. They have already stolen 99 bases this season, which is the fifth most. They aren't afraid to risk their base runners when attempting to move their men into scoring position.

According to MLB.com, the Royals will be starting Max Castillo on the mound. He is currently 0-1 with a 2.97 ERA and a .99 WHIP. He was traded to the Royals from the Blue Jays, as he has started two games with the Royals. In his last start, he pitched for 4.2 innings and gave up five hits and two earned runs. He also has a 4.82 ERA at home this season. The Royals bullpen has had its issues this season, as well. They are allowing 4.63 runs per game, which is the third most in the MLB. As a team, Kansas City is surrendering 5.08 runs per game, which is the fifth most in the league.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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I'm going to ride with the Mariners (-1.5) in this matchup against the Royals. I understand that Kansas City has been hot over the past week, but I do not trust their starting pitcher in this one. The Royals will start Max Castillo on the mound, as he has only started in two games for the Royals this season. He was also lit up in his last start, as he could only pitch for 4.2 innings. He won't be able to pitch deep into this game either, as I see the Mariners having a chance to consistently score throughout this game. The Royals are surrendering the fifth most runs as a team and their bullpen has continued to stink this season. They are allowing the third most runs, as the Mariners are going to have multiple opportunities to blow this game open. Seattle is also scoring 4.21 runs per game and they are hitting the ninth most home runs. They will score multiple different ways and easily cover this run-line spread. They will also be starting Luis Castillo on the mound, as I don't see him surrendering many runs to the Royals. He has been great this season and the Royals are scoring the 24th most runs per game. They will struggle at the plate in this one and fail to cover this spread.

Hammer the Seattle Mariners and lay the run line spread (-1.5).

Prediction: Seattle Mariners -1.5

Full-Game Total Pick

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This pick feels bold, but I'm going to ride with the under (7.5) runs in this matchup. Both of these teams have struggled to score throughout this season, and I see that trend continuing in this one. The Mariners are currently scoring the 22nd most runs per game and they have the third lowest overall team batting average. They will eventually cash in at the plate, but they won't score enough runs to push this total over the number. The Royals' pitching rotation has also been on fire over the last week, as I don't see them blowing up in this one. They will hold the Mariners to a few runs and this total will remain under (7.5). Now, I see Luis Castillo and the Mariners completely silencing the Royals bats. Luis Castillo has been an absolute beast this season, as he has a 2.90 ERA on the road. He will pitch deep into this game and keep the Royals off the scoreboard for the majority of this game. He has been great since joining the Mariners and Kansas City is only scoring the 24th most runs per game. Both of these teams will continue to strand men in scoring position and this game will remain low scoring.

Hammer the under (7.5) and trust both of these pitching rotations.

Prediction: Under 7.5
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Written By Mason Folz , "Mason Folz"

Mason graduated from the University of Colorado, Boulder and he has been watching SportsCenter since before he could walk. He has been crunching numbers since he could learn to count and nothing makes Mason happier in this world than talking sports, unless he is on the golf course! We are very happy to have added Mason to our team at StatSalt and you will be glad as well. Let's win some money!