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Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins,
9-26-2018 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#923 Detroit
Tigers 8.5
#924 Minnesota
Twins -140

Wednesday, September 26, 2018 at 8:10pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Detroit Tigers
M. BOYD

64 - 93

9
W's
12
L's
4.16
ERA
1.12
WHIP

Minnesota Twins
J. ODORIZZI

72 - 84

7
W's
10
L's
4.35
ERA
1.3
WHIP

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It’s the middle game of an early week set between AL Central rivals in the Twin Cities. The Detroit Tigers are on the road for the middle game of a three-game set with the Minnesota Twins Wednesday night. Detroit split a four-game set with the Royals at home over the weekend, losing the finale 3-2 Sunday afternoon. Minnesota avoided a three-game sweep on the road by Oakland as they took a 5-1 win in Sunday’s finale. The pitching matchup for Tuesday’s series opener saw Spencer Turnbull take the mound for the Tigers. He was scheduled to face the Twins’ Kohl Stewart with first pitch set for 8:10 pm ET.

Detroit Tigers Hope for Brighter 2019

Detroit continued their inexorable march to nowhere by losing the finale of their set with the Royals Sunday afternoon. With the loss, the Tigers fell to 63-93 and trailed the Indians by 25 games in the AL Central race entering Tuesday. Detroit finished with six hits in the loss with no player recording more than one. Nick Castellanos and Victor Reyes each drove in a run for the Tigers in the loss. Daniel Norris recorded a no-decision on the mound: he threw five innings, allowing a run on six hits with two walks and three strikeouts. Drew VerHagen (3-3) took the loss as he allowed two runs on three hits with a strikeout in one inning of work.

Matthew Boyd is in line to get the ball for his 31st start of the season for the Tigers in this contest. He comes in 9-12 with a 4.16 ERA, a 1.122 WHIP, 49 walks and 156 strikeouts over 166.2 innings of work this season. Boyd did not factor in the decision in his last start, which came at home against the Royals Thursday night. He threw 1.1 innings, allowing five runs (two earned) on six hits with no walks and a strikeout in a game the Tigers eventually won 11-8. Boyd has no record with a 3.29 ERA, a 1.02 WHIP, three walks and 19 strikeouts over 13.2 innings in his last three starts. He makes his 16th career start against the Twins in this contest. In those outings, he is 6-4 with a 3.93 ERA, a 1.039 WHIP, 31 walks and 75 strikeouts over 84.2 innings of action. Boyd is 3-3 with a 4.54 ERA, a 1.109 WHIP, 15 walks and 37 strikeouts over 39.2 innings in seven career starts at Target Field.

Minnesota Twins Look to Finish Season on High Note

Minnesota never had much of a chance to replicate their 2017 success as injuries and poor play early on derailed them. The Twins did win in the finale of their set in Oakland to improve to 72-83 on the year: they entered Tuesday 15.5 games behind Cleveland in the AL Central though they were locked into second place. Minnesota received two hits each from Joe Mauer (run), Ehire Adrianza (RBI) and Jake Cave (run, two RBI) in the win. Kyle Gibson (9-13) picked up the win on the mound with a solid outing. He threw 7.1 innings, allowing one run on seven hits with three walks and three strikeouts. Trevor May threw the final 1.1 innings, allowing no hits with a walk and two strikeouts, for his first save.

Jake Odorizzi takes the mound to make his 32nd start of the season for the Twins in this contest. He comes in 7-10 with a 4.35 ERA, a 1.302 WHIP, 65 walks and 159 strikeouts over 161 innings of work. Odorizzi picked up the win in his last start, which came against the Tigers on the road last Tuesday night. He threw 6.1 strong innings, allowing two runs on four hits with one walk and six strikeouts in a game the Twins won 5-3. Odorizzi is 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP, eight walks and 15 strikeouts over 18.1 innings in his last three starts. He faces the Tigers for the eighth time in his career in this contest. In those outings, he is 3-1 with a 3.15 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, 14 walks and 45 strikeouts over 40 innings of work. Odorizzi is 5-4 with a 4.08 ERA, a 1.328 WHIP, 31 walks and 87 strikeouts over 90.1 innings in 17 career starts at Target Field.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

Odorizzi has had the Tigers’ number in his career and beat them in his last start, which came more than a week ago. The problem with the Twins is their inconsistency, which is a major reason the team has fallen in the standings. The Tigers aren’t going anywhere either as the AL Central was a one team race most of the season. Still, Detroit has played well and has backed Boyd offensively of late. That should be enough to give the Tigers the edge over a Twins team that mailed things in a while ago as well.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers +138

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Both teams had Monday off to rest before kicking off their final two series of the season. Both teams know that there will be changes in the offseason. The Tigers saw Victor Martinez retire over the weekend, leaving a leadership hole in their clubhouse. Minnesota has to see what Mauer decides to do after the season. The Twins are locked into second place in the AL Central, which is kind of like saying you finished second in a race to your shadow. No one really cares when everyone else in the division besides Cleveland is double digit games below .500 on the year. Can either of these teams turn things around in 2019?

The over is 4-0-1 in the Tigers’ last 5 road games, 4-0-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter, 6-0 in their last six on Wednesday and 3-0-1 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Minnesota has seen the over go 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter, 10-3 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 10-3 in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Given the way both teams have seen runs go on the board lately, this one seems ready to go over the number.

Prediction: Over 8.5

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

The Tigers rallied late Tuesday night to earn a 4-2 victory in the opening game of this series. Detroit trailed 1-0 after seven frames before erupting for four runs in the eighth to get the win. Seeing that the Tigers managed to generate four runs in a single frame against the Minnesota bullpen, one has to like their chances of putting some runs on the board in this one. Detroit isn’t a horrible offensive team, they just simply haven’t had the consistency needed to be a contender. Against the Twins, they face a similar foe. The Tigers should be able to scratch out enough offense to go over the number here.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers Over 4 +115

First Five Innings Side Pick
Rating:

Odorizzi has had good success against the Tigers in his career but the problem with him is that he doesn’t tend to go deep into games as he runs up pitch counts fairly quickly. This Tigers team is no powerhouse unit that strikes fear in the hearts of opposing pitchers. They have to work to put runs on the board and they tend to be patient in an effort to work counts. Boyd hasn’t been great lately but Detroit has been picking up wins in his recent outings. The Tigers have the momentum from Tuesday’s rally and that gives them the edge after five here.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers +120

First Five Innings Total Bet
Rating:

While runs were at a premium for most of the game Tuesday night as both Kohl Stewart and Spencer Turnbull turned in sparkling six inning outings, you can’t necessarily count on that here. Boyd has seen a ton of offensive support lately as the Tigers have put up 31 runs in his last four starts. The fact that the Tigers have allowed 22 can’t be overlooked either. Odorizzi has won his last two starts but dropped three straight immediately preceding that. Given the way things have gone lately, this one should be over the number after five innings.

Prediction: Over 4.5 -110

First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Rating:

Odorizzi, despite the fact that he has a losing record, has pitched fairly well in the opening innings of games this season. He has a 2.90 ERA in the first inning as opponents are slashing .211/.287/.316 against him. In the first three innings of starts, he has a solid 2.95 ERA with the opposition putting up a .211/.283/.329 line on the year. After that, things get shaky as his ERA spikes to 6.04 with a .264/.353/.513 line in innings four through six. Boyd has a 2.70 ERA in the first inning and has limited opponents to a .189/.235/.360 slash line. He’s fanned 36 hitters while walking just three in the frame. The Tigers should be able to get the first runs of the game on the board in this one.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers to Score First -145

Chris Kubala

Christopher Kubala has been crunching stats and following sports for over 30 years. His in depth analysis and passion for sports have led him to writing books about sports, regularly being featured on sports talk radio and as the go-to person for any obscure trivia. He keeps an eye on transactions and statistics like a hawk, especially when it comes to football, both the NFL and college, the NHL, the NBA and college basketball and MLB.

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