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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies,
9-26-2018 - Prediction & Preview

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#909 Philadelphia
Phillies 10.5
#910 Colorado
Rockies -195

Wednesday, September 26, 2018 at 8:40pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Philadelphia Phillies
N. PIVETTA

78 - 79

6
W's
13
L's
4.6
ERA
1.29
WHIP

Colorado Rockies
G. MARQUEZ

87 - 70

13
W's
10
L's
3.95
ERA
1.22
WHIP

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The Philadelphia Phillies and Colorado Rockies will play the third game of their four-game series at Coors Field on Wednesday night.

The Rockies remain entrenched in a heated race for the final two postseason spots in the National League. Colorado is just a half-game back to the St. Louis Cardinals for the final Wild Card spot and 1.5-games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers, who currently sit atop the NL West standings.

Phils playing out the string

The Phillies are scheduled to hand the ball to right-hander Nick Pivetta, who has pitched well over his last five starts despite not completing more than five innings in any of those outings. The 26-year-old has allowed three earned runs or less in each of those outings and is coming off of tossing five inning of one-run ball in his last outing on the road against the Braves’ The Phillies’ right-hander allowed just four hits, striking out four and walking one batter on the night, but was unable to snap his personal four-game losing streak. Pivetta comes into Wednesday’s start with a 7-13 overall record to go along with a 4.58 ERA in 32 appearances (31 starts) this year, but he hasn’t won a decision since August 7.

Pivetta’s only start against the Rockies this season wasn’t pretty. He surrendered six earned runs on eight hits in six innings of work to take the loss. In his only other career start against Colorado, the Phillies’ right-hander allowed eight earned runs, lasting just 2 ⅔ frames in a disastrous outing. According to Baseball Savant, the current Rockies lineup is batting .500 with an .800 slugging percentage in 38 plate appearances off of Pivetta coming into this matchup.

Colorado is slated to counter by sending 23-year-old German Marquez to the hill at Coors Field for his 32nd start of the season. Marquez sports a 13-10 overall record to go along with a 3.91 ERA this season, but he’s been a different pitcher since the All-Star Break. In 12 starts since the break, the Rockies’ right-hander is 5-2 with a 2.77 ERA and he’s struck out 104 batters in just 81 ⅓ innings of work during that span. He has four double-digit strikeout performances in his last five games and completed six innings or more in 19 of his last 22 starts, including each of his 11 overall. Marquez accomplished both of those feats in his last outing, fanning 11 batters and walking none in seven innings of two-run ball on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Marquez’s only start against the Phillies was a forgettable one. He allowed six earned runs on seven hits, including two home runs over six innings of work, striking out eight batters and walking two in a losing effort.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

There’s not doubt who has been the better pitcher as of late. Pivetta owns a 4.57 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, Marquez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past two months, posting an 11.5 K/9 rate and a 2.77 ERA since the All-Star break. The Rockies have more to play for, the better pitcher, and solid numbers off of Pivetta coming into this game, so I’m giving this one five stars. Take the Rockies at home in this National League battle on Wednesday night.

Prediction: Pick: Colorado Rockies -190

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

Marquez has been unbelievable as of late and he’s tossed a quality outing in all 11 of his starts since the Break. On the other hand, Pivetta has allowed three runs or less in each of his last five starts, so it is hard not to like the under in this spot. The Phillies rank 22nd in baseball in runs scored over the past week, so I’m leaning towards the under in this matchup.

Prediction: Under 10.5

Full-Game Prop Bet
Rating:

Ian Desmond has hit 20 home runs this season but 18 of those came before the All-Star Break. His OPS has dipped to just .649 in the second half, but he’s picked things up during the month of September, batting .280 during the month. He’s yet to homer though, so he kind of feels like he’s due for one here, especially considering he’s hit at least one home run in every month this year. Desmond enters Wednesday’s contest batting .333 with one home run in three at-bats against Pivetta coming into this game, so he’s my pick to hit the first home run of this ball game at Coors Field.

Prediction: Ian Desmond to hit the first home run

First Five Innings Side Pick
Rating:

Marquez has been unreal in the second half of the season, but especially as of late. He’s compiled four double-digit strikeout games over his last five starts, fanning a stupid 50 batters over his last 34 ⅔ innings of work, while walking just five during that span. Pivetta is 1-6 since the All-Star Break and he’s allowed nine home runs in 63 innings during that span. Take the Rockies on the five-inning run line in this matchup on Wednesday night.

Prediction: Colorado Rockies

First Five Innings Total Bet
Rating:

Pivetta pitched well on a tight leash over the last month and he’s now allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last 10 outings. Few pitchers in the National League have been as good as Marquez since the All-Star break and his strikeout rate continues to rise. Look for this game to stay under the projected five-inning total at Coors Field in this spot.

Prediction: Under

First Five Innings Prop Prediction
Rating:

Pivetta has a 4.35 ERA in the first inning, a 4.85 ERA in the second and an 8.13 ERA in the fourth inning so far this season. Philadelphia has little left to play for and Pivetta is likely to have a longer leash in this game, which isn’t necessarily a good thing for the Phillies. The Rockies have strong numbers off of Pivetta coming into this game, so I think there is some value in taking Colorado on the 4 ½ inning run line in this game on Wednesday night.

Prediction: 4 1/2 inning run line – Colorado Rockies -1.5

Nick Raffoul

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits.

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