Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4915 Kansas City Royals vs.
#4916 Detroit Tigers
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 12:10pm EDT
Written by Nick Raffoul

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The Kansas City Royals will head on the road to Comerica Park on Sunday afternoon for an American League Central showdown against the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers continue to inch closer to the .500-mark and enter the weekend with a 74-79 overall record with nine games remaining on the regular-season schedule. Meanwhile, Kansas City comes in with a 70-83 overall mark, good for fourth place in the AL Central race.

Can the Tigers continue to finish the season strong with a win at home against the Royals on Monday?

Bubic closing season strong for Kansas City

Kansas City will close the series with left-hander Kris Bubic at Comerica Park on Sunday afternoon. The 24-year-old is 5-6 with a 4.80 ERA in 27 games (18 starts) but he flashed signs of turning things around over the last month. In four September starts, Bubic is 1-0 with a 2.84 ERA. In his last trip to the mound, he limited the Seattle Mariners to just one run on two hits in 6 ⅓ frames to escape with the win.

Bubic has been much better at home compared to on the road, where he owns a 2-5 record and 5.58 ERA in 14 games (10 starts). In 13 games (eight starts) at Kauffman Stadium, he is 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA.

In four games (three starts) against the Tigers, Bubic owns a career 1-0 record and 3.05 ERA. Three of those appearances have come this season. Bubic owns a 1-0 record and 1.69 ERA in those matchups. According to Baseball Savant, current Royals are batting .313 in 71 plate appearances off of the Royals left-hander ahead of Sunday’s contest.

Peralta set to face Royals for third time in 2021

The Tigers are scheduled to counter with veteran Wily Peralta, who has been a pleasant surprise in his first season in Detroit. While he came to Detroit as more of a reclamation project, the Tigers’ right-hander has performed well in his first stint as a full-time starter since the 2016 season. In 17 games (16 starts), Peralta is 4-3 with a stellar 3.04 ERA and he owns a lights-out 1.88 ERA in six starts at Comerica Park.

While it’s hard to take anything away from Peralta’s bounce-back season, the veteran has benefited from a healthy amount of good luck on the mound in 2021. He has struck out just 5.64 batters and walked 3.47 batters per nine innings of work. Peralta has also gotten away with stranding 79.2 percent of his baserunners while pitching to the tune of a .238 BABIP. As a result, his xERA (4.47) and xFIP (4.84) sit well above his season-long ERA.

Peralta spent two seasons working out of the bullpen in Kansas City before joining the Tigers earlier this year. In two career games (one start) against the Royals, Peralta owns an 0-1 record and 6.43 ERA. Per Baseball Savant, the current Royals roster is batting .240 in 29 plate appearances off of the Tigers’ right-hander coming into Sunday’s matchup.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Tigers come into this game as slight favorites with Peralta on the mound. On the other hand, Bubic has been trending up over his last four starts but appears to be due for some regression on the mound after pitching around a high walk rate during that span. In 19 September innings, Bubic owns a 15:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio, yet he’s escaped with a 2.84 ERA. Meanwhile, Peralta will likely be looking for some revenge against the Royals in this game after they tagged him for five runs in their last meeting back on July 23. Take the Tigers to close this series with a win at home on Sunday.

Prediction: Detroit Tigers -110

Full-Game Total Pick

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These two teams are projected for nine runs but that number might be hard to come by with the way that these two starters have been pitching this month. Bubic owns a 2.84 ERA in four September starts and he hasn’t given up more than two earned runs in any of those appearances. Meanwhile, Peralta has also posted a respectable 3.60 ERA in four September starts while allowing three earned runs or fewer on all four occasions. Take this game to stay under the projected total on Sunday.

Prediction: Under 9
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Written By Nick Raffoul , "Nick Raffoul"

Shortly after graduating with an Honors in Business Administration, Nick turned his attention from traditional stocks and bonds to investing in the performance of sports teams. He has been a very successful sports bettor over the years and has now brought his talents to us here at Winners & Whiners. Nick uses a combination of advanced stats and historical data to create sports investment models to identify value and generate consistent profits. Let Nick win for you.