Prediction, Preview, and Odds
#4927 New York Yankees vs.
#4928 Boston Red Sox
Sunday, September 26, 2021 at 7:08pm EDT
Written by The Admiral

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New York Yankees (87-67) vs. Boston Red Sox (88-66)

The most heated rivalry in baseball continues on Sunday evening when the New York Yankees take on the Boston Red Sox. New York won the first contest in this series, 8-3. That gave them victories in four straight games. These teams played on Saturday, but this preview was written prior to the conclusion of that contest.

There is a lot on the line in this contest as these are the top two teams in the American League in terms of wild card standings. Boston holds a one-game edge over New York with Toronto and Seattle two behind the Yankees. Boston holds an 8-7 edge in this series this season, but New York has won four straight meetings and five of the last six.

Yankees Making Impressive Stretch Run

There is no better time to get hot than heading into the playoffs, and the Yankees are on one of those types of runs. They have won four straight games, outscoring opponents 26-10 during the winning streak. In fact, the Yankees are putting on quite the power performance in September, third overall in home runs with 41.

New York is 18th in runs per game (4.39) and ninth in runs allowed per contest (4.14). They are 12th in run differential at +0.25. The team has struggled to hit consistently, 20th in batting average at .239, but they are sixth in home runs per contest (1.37).

The Yankees will start left-hander Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery is 6-6 with a 3.55 ERA in 28 starts. The left-hander has allowed a single in a run in six of his last eight outings, including in each of his last two. He has allowed three runs or fewer in 14 of his last 15 starts. Montgomery has faced the Red Sox four times this year, allowing nine runs in 22.1 innings.

New York is led by Aaron Judge with 36 homers and 90 runs driven in. Giancarlo Stanton has also eclipsed the 30-homerun plateau (32) and has driven in 87 overall. New York is hitting .250 and averaging 4.72 runs per nine innings against left-handers.

Red Sox Rolling as Well

Despite the loss to the Yankees on Friday, Boston entered this series as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winners of seven straight games. They are 13-7 in September, thanks in large part to a pitching staff that boasts a 3.94 ERA this month, ninth best. The hitting has not been bad either, as they are first in team batting average in September (.282) and sixth in runs scored (122).

Boston is third in runs per game (5.18) and 18th in runs allowed per contest (4.66). They are ninth in run differential at +0.51. This is a very good offensive team, third in team batting average (.262) and 10th in home runs per game (1.34).

Boston will start left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez is 11-8 with a 4.97 ERA in 29 starts. He has a 4.05 ERA in four starts in September, but six of those runs came in a September 7 start against Tampa Bay. In his other three starts, Rodriguez has allowed three earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched. The lefty has faced the Yankees four times this season, allowing six earned runs in 18.0 innings pitched.

Boston is led by Rafael Devens with 35 home runs and 108 RBI. Three players on the Red Sox have at least 91 RBI this season and five players have hit at least 23 home runs. The Red Sox are hitting .261 and averaging 5.13 runs per nine innings against lefties.

Best Bets for this Game

Full-Game Side Bet

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The Yankees drew first blood in this series and have dominated Boston of late, but the Red Sox know that they must win these final two games to maintain their edge over the Yankees. The last thing they want is to travel to Yankee Stadium for that wild-card game, so you have to see this as desperation time for the Red Sox.

Both starters have had success against the other team this season, so there is no clear advantage here. However, you have to like the offense for Boston. While New York is putting up the power numbers, the Red Sox are hitting well overall.

Prediction: Take the Boston Red Sox

Full-Game Total Pick

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The total for this contest is set at 10.0 and I find that quite surprising. Both teams will likely see this is a must-win game, so I would not be surprised to see this managed like a playoff contest. Both teams are off on Monday, so they can use their bullpens liberally and know that their relievers will have time to rest before the next series. This is the last time these teams will play one another this season so it is the last opportunity for each to do damage head-to-head.

These teams have gone under in eight of the last 11 meetings, including for the last five in Boston.

Take the Red Sox to win, 3-2.

Prediction: Go under 10.0 (-110)
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Written By Admir Aljic , "The Admiral"

You want someone to show you how to make some money, then talk to the Admiral, because he is your man. He has been handicapping for many years, so heal knows a thing or two on how to beat the spread and get your pockets loaded with cash. He has lined his own pockets for years as a betting expert. The Admiral has brought his talents to StatSalt & Winners & Whiners and will always find the best pick for you.