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NCAAF

Navy vs. Air Force,
10/1/16 - Expert Prediction

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#169 Navy
Midshipmen
#170 Air Force
Falcons

Saturday, October 1, 2016 at 3:30pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Game Stats

Navy Midshipmen

-

-
ATS
-
O/U
0
PPG
0
OPPG

Air Force Falcons

-

-
ATS
-
O/U
0
PPG
0
OPPG

Betting Trends

All NCAAF

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Navy 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) at Air Force 3-0 (2-1 ATS)

When and Where: Saturday, Oct. 1st, Falcon Stadium Colorado, 3:30 PM (CBSS)

Lines: Air Force -7

Total: 48

Air Force and Navy have started off their seasons strong at 3-0, but only one of them can continue on undefeated after Oct. 1st. As you can imagine, these two teams are no strangers on the field. They’ve faced off an impressive 48 times dating back to 1960, with the Air Force Falcons taking 28 of them. Their last matchup went to the Navy Midshipmen, however, who won their last two games with a touchdown late in the fourth quarter.  Both have played extremely well, but Navy will need to grab a stronger lead against the Falcons and avoid leaving the game tied in the fourth. The Air Force Falcons are a team that you need to put away fast. It’s going to be a great game.

Navy coming off a bye

The Midshipmen scored the winning touchdowns in their last two games with only three minutes left in both. A 1-yard touchdown run against Connecticut with 3:08 left in the game gave them the 28-24 victory three weeks ago, and a score with only 2:57 left gave them the 21-14 win over Tulane two weeks ago. Their offense has operated with confidence in all of their games, even with continued trouble at the QB position. Will Worth, who took over for Tago Smith after a torn ACL against Fordham ended his season, played well against Connecticut in his first ever start and kept the momentum going against Tulane. Their O-line has offered great push and protection, giving Worth a chance to relax and remain in the pocket. He even connected with RB Toneo Gulley via the air for a two-point conversion in their game against Tulane.

Worth and Gulley have been this offense’s main story, but they have great depth in the rushing game that extends to RB Chris High who took 51 yards a touchdown for himself. They haven’t been as dominate as they could be, however. While their offense has been confident, they haven’t scored the major numbers they need to put away games early. They’ve had to fight in the fourth to take their victories and fend off scores with a strong but not perfect defense. They’ll need to be fast and decisive in scoring if they want to send theAir Force Falcons to 3-1.

Falcons can take win four at home

The Falcons’ defense was a major factor in their last win against Utah State (27-20). A big sack and fumble recovery by Haji Dunn Jr. on Utah’s 14-yard line was instrumental in their victory. A few plays later they had the score and a 24-13 lead. Their defense came up strong all game with a stop against Utah’s fake field goal attempt and an interception by the Falcons’ Brodie Hicks late in the second quarter, which led to a score.

Their offense has been tremendous as well. They entered the game against Utah State as the nation’s leading rusher, with an average 432.5 yards per game. They only managed 213 against the Aggies, but still played well and gutted Utah for enough yards to take the win. Their passing game could have improved, with only 113 total yards and one touchdown in the air, but they’ve played consistence football with great defense. The Navy Midshipmen should be afraid of the Falcons’ game changing defense and nearly unstoppable run game.

College Football Trends:

The Navy Midshipmen are:

  • 0-4 ATS last 4 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their previous game.

The Air Force Falcons are:

  • 6-1 ATS last 7 after a SU win.
  • 12-4 ATS last 16 home games.

Both teams are 3-0 for a reason. They’re good. Really good. But struggles at the QB position and an offensive attack that can’t seem to put away teams early is going to hurt the Navy. Air Force has played absolutely dominate football through an unstoppable run game and a defense that has systematically torn apart opposing offenses. This game is going to be tough on both sides of the field, but I take the Air Force Falcons to win the first service academy game of the year at home.

Pick: Air Force -7

Benjamin Hayes

Ben has been a sports writer for over 30 years, dabbling in college and pro basketball, college and pro football, baseball, college lacrosse, minor league baseball and even college gymnastics. He's also been involved in the gaming industry for over 25 years and has been looking to beat the books since he was 13!

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